WASHINGTON, 24 August 2007 — The Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months and its security forces have not improved enough to operate without outside help, US spy agencies conclude in a new assessment of the country’s political and military fortunes. Despite some uneven improvements, the analysts concluded that the level of overall violence is high, Iraq’s sectarian groups have yet to reconcile, and Al-Qaeda in Iraq is still able to conduct highly visible attacks.
“Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively,” the 10-page document, a declassified summary of a more detailed National Intelligence Estimate, concludes.
The report represents the collaborative judgments of all 16 US intelligence agencies, including the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organization of each military service. It comes at a time of renewed tensions between Washington and Baghdad, and as the Bush administration prepares a mid-September report on how its troop buildup in Iraq is working.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the report confirms what most Americans already know: “Our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the president’s escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people. Every day that we continue to stick to the president’s flawed strategy is a day that America is not as secure as it could be,” said Reid, a Democrat.
The estimate says that Iraqi Security Forces, working alongside the United States, have performed “adequately.” However, it says they have not shown enough improvement to conduct operations without US and coalition forces.
The report predicts that the Iraqi government “will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months” because of criticism from members of Iraqi Shiite parties, Iraq’s top Shiite religious figure Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, and Sunni and Kurdish factions.
The assessment also expresses deep doubts that the government of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki can overcome sectarian divisions and meet benchmarks intended to promote political unity. It finds that Shiite factions have looked at ways to constrain him.
“The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decision-making, and increased Maliki’s vulnerability to alternative coalitions,” the document says.
But the assessment says Maliki will continue to benefit from the belief among Shiite leaders that “searching for a replacement could paralyze the government.”
President George W. Bush had appeared on Tuesday to be distancing himself from the Iraqi leader when he said: “Clearly, the Iraqi government’s got to do more.” But Bush voiced encouragement for Maliki a day later, and an administration official said yesterday that despite the assessment of the limitations of the current government, there is no talk at the White House of a need for change in the Iraqi leadership.
