JEDDAH, 21 January 2008 — The increasing complexity of interaction between countries and cultures brought about by globalization will inevitably affect Saudi Arabia. It will require innovative diplomatic solutions to survive in a world where military intervention against states is proving decreasingly effective and the balance of power in the energy sector has the potential to shift away from the Middle East toward Central Asia.

Such was the message delivered in an intensely focused and detailed lecture at Dar Al-Hekma College in Jeddah last evening by Andrew Hess, professor of international relations and director of the Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization Program at the Fletcher School of Diplomacy at Tufts University, USA.

“I ask, is there a potential energy conflict going on? I think there is,” he told an audience of academics and invited guests referring to the potential shift in energy production toward Central Asia.

The lecture was held to mark the start of a relationship between the women’s college and the Fletcher School to train 15 students in international diplomacy and foreign relations following a move by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah to increase the role of women in international diplomacy.

“I applaud this event,” said Hess prior to his lecture. “It is a great opportunity for the Fletcher School and an example of the kind of event that the US should be involved in with Saudi Arabia.”

Hess’ lecture traced the development of globalization after World War II through the dawn of the information technology age in the 1970s and the rising importance of energy in world politics. He noted that the relationships between states could no longer, therefore, be treated as national or regional interests alone but had to be considered as part of a much bigger picture with many interacting and often conflicting interests and agendas.

“It is clear that the military solution is almost never the solution,” he said. “One has to address the causes of potential conflict and this means diplomacy.” He conceded that the military solution was an option which should be held in reserve.

Noting some of the factors that had to be considered in the global mix, he said that such diverse areas as failed states, global warming and the shifting balance of power caused by the rise of new oil powers and increasingly demanding consumers of China and India were creating new alliances and tensions.

He graphically demonstrated how this might come about with the network of oil and gas pipelines out of Central Asia to the East and Europe, with the Central Asian states developing in influence as they develop their reserves.

Hess said that Russia demonstrated the effect of its new power when it shut down the supply of oil and gas to Ukraine last year and then increased fuel price.

He also pointed out the enormous potential influence of the countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement and the natural resources they could draw on. Initially formed in 1996 as part of confidence-building measures between China and the former Soviet republics, it seeks to draw Russia, China and a number of Central Asian states closer together and represents a vast new source of energy. Hess said that most Americans were unaware of the organization but should take its potential into serious account.

“We are talking here of a big global movement in Central Asia,” he told the audience, “and it should be of great concern here.”

Non-political factors, however, may be even more influential, he opined, and gave the example of the melting of the Arctic icecap through the effect of global warming. “This will open up sea routes from the northern Siberian fields and reduce the need for trans-border pipelines,” he thought and added that a reduction in political influence would follow for the states that relied on their revenues.

On the effect the shifting balance of influence might have on the Kingdom, he said: “That is what these students have to study in great detail and come up with the right answers. Whatever happens, Saudi Arabia should look at investing in alternative sources of revenue.”