The International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2011 global economic outlook last week. Much of the improvement came from brighter prospects in advanced economies — not the big emerging markets that powered the early phase of the recovery.

Figures due this week will provide a detailed assessment of how global manufacturers and employers are coping with the mix of stronger growth and costlier raw materials.

Early indications suggest they're managing fairly well.

However, oil prices rose and stocks fell on Friday after protests intensified in Egypt, raising concerns about unrest spreading across the region, with possible market and economic repercussions around the globe.

Tuesday's global purchasing manager surveys are expected to show factory activity growing, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in December. The index of prices paid merits monitoring for further evidence that cost pressures are building.

"Risks are now moving from the downside to the upside," said Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

"If the (growth) forecast is off it will most likely be because hiring kicks in faster than expected," Faucher said. "Firms have the cash to hire; they just need the confidence to do so, and that could develop quickly."

Hiring has been frustratingly slow to return in advanced economies. Factories may be busy, but many are finding ways to make do with existing payrolls — particularly now that rising raw material costs are eating into profit margins.

This week brings employment data for the United States, the euro zone and Canada. All three fit into the category of regions with stubbornly high unemployment that has shown only modest improvement despite strengthening GDP.

Economists have been saying for months that businesses will soon have to hire to keep up with growing demand. Yet more often than not, the employment numbers have disappointed, particularly in the United States.

Hopes are once again high that Friday's January employment report will break the pattern, particularly after last week's gross domestic product data indicated consumption and exports were both strong. Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to show a net 146,000 jobs created in January.

Over the last half of 2010, the US Labor Department's monthly job tally was worse than economists had expected in four of six months. However, the Labor Department has revised its count upward for five consecutive months, and may do so for December when the updated figures are released on Friday.

The agency will also post its annual "benchmark" revision for the year through March 2010, as well as adjustments to the so-called "birth-death" model it uses to guesstimate how many companies were created or destroyed in a given month.

Both changes are expected to show job losses were even deeper than first reported as the economy crawled out of recession. The department estimated in October it had overstated employment in the 12 months to March 2010 by 366,000.

But some economists think the next set of revisions will be upward. Private surveys show small-business confidence and hiring intentions rising, and the government's data tends to be slow to pick up on such shifts.

For central bankers, understanding the interplay between growth, employment and inflation is vital to setting policy, and it has not been easy.

The European Central Bank holds its next meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to hold short-term borrowing costs unchanged at a record-low 1 percent. However, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has warned that inflation poses a threat, leading to speculation that his central bank may be closer to raising rates.

For Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, unemployment is still the No. 1 focus, and at 9.4 percent it remains too high. Bernanke is scheduled to speak at the National Press Club on Thursday, one day before the January jobs report, and will conduct a rare question-and-answer session with reporters.

He will no doubt seek to explain why the central bank gave only a lukewarm economic assessment last week and still considers inflation largely benign despite rising commodity costs.

"By now it should be obvious that the Fed isn't going to budge from its accommodative bent until the jobless rate falls meaningfully or core inflation turns up," said Sal Guatieri, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.