- LONDON: Signs of surging inflation corresponded with the strong performance of service sector firms in the euro zone and especially Britain during January, according to business surveys published on Thursday.
The Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs), which measure the activity of thousands of companies from banks to hotels, showed accelerating growth among the service sector firms that power the bulk of the European economy.
However, the surveys will do little to placate the European Central Bank, which is expected to leave interest rates on hold on Thursday but is under the lens of financial markets looking for clues of an imminent tightening of policy.
Since the start of the year, central bankers' anti-inflation rhetoric has hardened in response a commodity and energy price boom, which has helped push inflation above target.
The PMIs showed the costs paid by companies for raw materials and fuel grew at the fastest rate in more than two years in the euro zone and UK.
"There's no doubt that what the PMIs are showing you is that the increase in global input prices is significant, and it's showing up at both input and output price level in these surveys," said Malcolm Barr, economist at J.P. Morgan.
"It certainly documents something the (central bank) hawks have been highlighting."
While euro zone firms largely absorbed these costs, British firms passed on price hikes to consumers at the fastest rate since September 2008, suggesting room for growing inflation expectations.
"All this makes the upcoming (British) Monetary Policy Committee meeting a much closer call than markets price in," said Citi economist Michael Saunders in a research note. "With the economy growing at a steady underlying pace, and inflation far above the MPC's forecasts (as usual), elevated inflation expectations and a pick-up in pay deals, chances of an early hike appear much greater than markets currently price in."
Overall, the Markit Eurozone Services PMI rose to 55.9 in January from 54.2 in December, higher than an earlier flash estimate of 55.2 and its 17th month above the 50 mark that divides growth from expansion. However, surveys from individual bloc countries showed ongoing weakness in Spain and Italy.
Britain's services PMI hit an eight-month high of 54.5, according to preliminary figure, up from the 49.7 in December that foretold of a shock economic contraction of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarters.
On Tuesday, manufacturing PMI data also rose across Europe, again showing rising inflation pressures.
In the US, where Federal Reserve policymakers have been far more sanguine about the inflation outlook, the non-manufacturing ISM PMI survey due at 1500 GMT is expected to stay roughly steady around December's 57.1.
On Wednesday, Deputy BoE Gov. Charles Bean said UK interest rates would have to rise if inflation, which in December hit 3.7 percent, becomes embedded. While economists still think the bank will hold off raising rates until late this year, minutes from its January meeting showed the BoE is inching closer to tightening policy.
PMIs also showed strong growth among service sector firms in manufacturing-dominated economies of China and India, although there were also signs of soaring costs in the latter.
While the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI eased to 56.4 in January from 56.5 in December, the Indian HSBC survey rose to 58.1 in January from 57.7 while the input prices index hit a 30-month high.
"As we saw for the manufacturing sector, the supply side is struggling to keep pace with the strong momentum in domestic demand, which is manifesting itself in accelerating input prices and is spilling over to prices charged," said HSBC economist Leif Eskesen.
Controlling inflation is the biggest headache for Indian central bankers. Data on Thursday showed India's food price index rose 17.05 percent in the year to Jan. 22 and the fuel price index rose 11.61.

