This is considerably better than the $400 million previously forecast, but down from the $1.1 billion profit that the region posted in 2010, according to the association.

It said political instability in the region was expected to take its toll in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, which combined account for about 20 percent of the region’s international passenger traffic.

This is balanced by the Gulf area which benefits from economic activity related to high oil prices and whose hubs continue to win long-haul market share.

Load factors have also improved significantly for these airlines, as new capacity is being added at a slower pace than demand increases.

The association said it had cut its forecasts for 2011 global airline profits because of the recent surge in crude oil prices.

IATA said it had downgraded its forecast for industry net profits to $8.6 billion from the $9.1 billion it had estimated in December. That’s a sharp 46 percent drop on the $16 billion earned by the industry in 2010.

IATA, which represents more than 240 airlines around the world, expects industry revenues of $594 billion.

Political unrest in Libya and the Middle East has pushed oil over $100 a barrel in recent weeks — significantly higher than the $84 a barrel that IATA used to make its December forecast. Fuel accounts for almost 40 percent of an airline’s operating costs.

IATA raised its 2011 average oil price assumption to $96 per barrel of Brent crude (up from $84 in December), in line with market forecasts. Including the impact of fuel hedging, which is roughly 50 percent of expected consumption, this will increase the industry fuel bill by $10 billion to a total of $166 billion. Compared to levels in 2010, oil prices are now expected to be 20 percent higher in 2011. Fuel is now estimated to represent 29 percent of total operating costs (up from 26 percent in 2010).

Growing economies give airlines the opportunity to recover some of these added costs with additional revenues. For example, since early 2009, rising oil prices added 25 percent to unit costs while average fares (excluding surcharges) rose 20 percent.

But in 2011 higher revenues are not expected to be sufficient to prevent the rise in oil prices from causing profits to shrink by 46 percent from 2010 levels.

IATA said Asia-Pacific carriers are expected to deliver the largest collective profit of $3.7 billion and the highest operating margins of 4.6 percent. This is down substantially from the $7.6 billion that the region’s carriers made in 2010 and from the previously forecast $4.6 billion for 2011.