The Socialists have ruled Andalusia almost since the start of Spanish democracy in 1979. But with a third of the region’s workers unemployed, the electorate looks set to give the opposition People’s Party (PP) its first-ever win there.

Polls show the profound shift in Andalusia will help the PP secure outright victory on Nov. 20 with voters blaming the Socialists for the grim jobs outlook, unmanageable debt and spending cuts to try to ward off the euro zone debt crisis.

“Voters (in Andalusia) aren’t pleased with how the Socialists have handled the crisis and they’re going to punish their own party at the polls because of it,” said Juan Torres, applied economics professor at the University of Seville.

The PP is expected to use a strong mandate to press deep economic reforms and further austerity measures to try to make tourism- and construction-dependent Spain more competitive.

The PP made sweeping gains in local elections in May and now controls most city halls and regional governments across Spain. Yet, while it has made recent advances in the urban south, it has struggled to connect with Andalusia’s working class.

That looks set to change.
 

In small Andalusian towns like Olivares, a village of 9,500 people set among olive fields and prehistoric and Roman ruins, voters say they will switch their vote on Nov. 20 either to the PP or to smaller parties.

“People are disillusioned. I’ve meditated on my vote a lot. It’s not about left or right anymore,” said 28-year-old Salud Cotan, who works at the Olivares tourism office. She is frustrated with the Socialists but is wavering over the alternatives.

Andalusia, with 8.4 million people, currently has 36 Socialist seats in the parliament in Madrid, and 25 PP seats. Polls show the PP will gain at least eight additional seats.

Like many rural villages in Andalusia, Olivares enjoyed unprecedented wealth before a construction boom burst four years ago. Now empty apartment blocks and closed shops blight the area, which relies on small industry and farming to stay afloat.

In a sign of the level of desperation in Olivares, out-of-work lawyers and teachers joined unemployed carpenters, farmers and youngsters in the fields for the annual olive harvest.

Spain’s 21 percent joblessness is the worst in the European Union, and the rate soars higher in Andalusia’s rural areas.

“It’s as if the politicians have just been sitting pretty on their ranches all these years. We need a change,” said Marisa Velasco, who manages an employment workshop in Olivares.

Velasco said she had always leaned politically toward the left but will not vote for the Socialists this time.

The south’s reticence regarding the PP long reflected a society that bore the scars of repression in the early years of Francisco Franco’s dictatorship, with which the PP has been closely associated.

Many Andalusians also felt loyalty to Seville native Felipe Gonzalez, the son of a farmer who was prime minister from 1982 to 1996 and is deemed the father of the Socialist party.

Yet the PP has made major political strides in big southern cities by moderating its conservative agenda.

The mayors of Granada, home to the Alhambra palace, and Seville, world capital of flamenco dance and music, are both PP. And the presidency of the Andalusia region is also expected to shift to the PP in a March vote next year after more than 30 years with a Socialist at the helm.

“The economic crisis has hit hard and there’s a move toward change. But this isn’t a change that’s happened overnight,” said Juan Manuel Marques, managing director of Andalusian newspaper editor Grupo Joly.

Today, many of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions are struggling to trim spending, and their high deficits put them at the center of a debt storm that threatens to push the country into a European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout.

The Socialist central government has severely cut spending in what many center-left voters feel is a betrayal.

“The central government has created a climate of rejection of Socialist policies that is infecting the rest of the party,” said Javier Aroca, a columnist and former politician for a small local party in Andalusia and briefly for the Socialists.