Sean Gallagher, an independent candidate who shot to fame on a reality TV show, commands 40 percent of support ahead of Thursday’s vote, putting him 15 points ahead of his closest rival according to an opinion poll on Monday.

However local bookmakers Paddy Power and Boylesports installed second-placed Michael D. Higgins, a member of the junior governing party Labour, as the new favorite after Gallagher appeared to falter in the final campaign debate over his money ties to Fianna Fail.

Gallagher first denied any knowledge of a claim he had collected a 5,000 euro ($7,000) cheque from a man who attended a fundraiser for former Prime Minister Brian Cowen three years ago, before conceding he may have done so.

Gallagher’s biggest electoral weakness is seen as his former membership of the center-right Fianna Fail, blamed by voters for presiding over the country’s economic collapse and booted out of power earlier this year.

“The truth is I do not recall going to this man’s house, I couldn’t tell you nor take you to it now,” Gallagher told national broadcaster RTE on Tuesday, when he was also pressed on his business record.

Gallagher said the attack was a well-orchestrated ambush by left-wing party Sinn Fein after their candidate, former Irish Republican Army (IRA) commander Martin McGuinness, asked the questions about the cheque during the live television debate.

The Dragon’s Den television show judge, who made his name supplying technology and cabling to new homes during Ireland’s ill-fated housing boom, had benefited from avoiding much of the mud-slinging in the notoriously bruising contest.

Analysts said there was now a significant expectation that Gallagher would lose support following his handling of the events and that Labour’s Higgins — who has avoided controversy during the campaign — would likely benefit the most.

“If Gallagher has been impacted even slightly and has lost votes, it is quite conceivable that Michael D Higgins could win the election, despite being in a distant second place just two days ago,” Richard Coldwell, managing director of polling unit Red C said.