SOCHI/ANKARA: Russia on Tuesday hosted a showpiece congress aimed at bringing Syria’s seven-year war to an end, but hopes were low after rebels pulled out at the last minute following boycotts by the main opposition and Kurds.
An opening speech by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, delayed by two hours because of ongoing negotiations, was interrupted both by cries of “Long live Russia!” and angry heckling from Syrian delegates.
Representatives of rebel groups flew into Sochi from Turkey late on Monday but refused to leave the airport after seeing the symbol of the congress featured only the Syrian regime flag.
Turkey has been given the authority to represent the Syrian opposition, who is boycotting the Russian-sponsored peace talks in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
Turkey was represented by Foreign Ministry Deputy Undersecretary Sedat Onal.
Serhat Erkmen, a Middle East expert at the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute, said Turkey’s main priority at the Sochi talks is to maintain its cooperation with Russia and to keep the political settlement process going.
“Turkey will use its leverage over the process during the negotiations that will be held at the constitutional committees to be established at the end of this conference,” Erkmen told Arab News.
Erkmen does not expect that Turkey’s military offensive in Syria’s northwestern province of Afrin will critically influence the outcome of the peace talks.
Turkey is fighting against the main Syrian Kurdish militia, the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), considered by Ankara to be an extension of the outlawed PKK terror group.
“The conference is evolving toward the direction Moscow wants. They are about to reach an agreement with an opposition that is not hardcore, in other words with the representatives of an opposition that looks moderately upon the Assad regime and is also tolerated by Damascus,” he said.
Turkey, Russia and Iran, as the guarantor countries of the Astana deal to push a cease-fire and political transition in Syria, are expected to assign the same number of members to the constitutional commission.
A commission will be tasked with drafting a new constitution that is likely to leave President Bashar Assad in power for a certain time.
“It is likely that some committees would be set up for these talks between regime and opposition groups with a mediation role of Russia. The new state structures, center-periphery relations, the main parameters of presidential and parliamentary elections, and the status of ethnic components of the Syrian people lead the agenda of the Sochi congress,” Kerim Has, a lecturer in Turkish-Russian relations at Moscow University, told Arab News.
“There are four large oppositional groups participating in the congress, and all of them will take place with the regime delegations in the work of a constitutional commission, which is a modest but vital step,” he said.
Following Ankara’s strong objections to extending an invitation to the PYD, the political wing of the YPG, to attend the congress, Russia did not send invitation to the group.
“Thus, the Kurds are represented by individuals, not as a group or party,” he said, adding however that those individuals may put the demands of PYD forward at the congress.
“It is also possible that some oppositional groups such as the Egypt-based Syria’s Tomorrow Movement, having strong links with the US-backed PYD, is going to request a discussion on the new state structure in Syria, including autonomy for Kurds,” Has said.
However for Has, it is possible that the advancement of the Turkish Army in Afrin is going to affect the participants’ profile and agenda during the next meetings in Sochi.
“In that sense, Turkey’s Afrin offensive surely paved a way for rearrangements on forming the participants’ list for the first meeting in Sochi; however it should be noted that all is up to the dynamics on the ground for the next round,” he said.
An opening speech by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, delayed by two hours because of ongoing negotiations, was interrupted both by cries of “Long live Russia!” and angry heckling from Syrian delegates.
Representatives of rebel groups flew into Sochi from Turkey late on Monday but refused to leave the airport after seeing the symbol of the congress featured only the Syrian regime flag.
Turkey has been given the authority to represent the Syrian opposition, who is boycotting the Russian-sponsored peace talks in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
Turkey was represented by Foreign Ministry Deputy Undersecretary Sedat Onal.
Serhat Erkmen, a Middle East expert at the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute, said Turkey’s main priority at the Sochi talks is to maintain its cooperation with Russia and to keep the political settlement process going.
“Turkey will use its leverage over the process during the negotiations that will be held at the constitutional committees to be established at the end of this conference,” Erkmen told Arab News.
Erkmen does not expect that Turkey’s military offensive in Syria’s northwestern province of Afrin will critically influence the outcome of the peace talks.
Turkey is fighting against the main Syrian Kurdish militia, the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), considered by Ankara to be an extension of the outlawed PKK terror group.
“The conference is evolving toward the direction Moscow wants. They are about to reach an agreement with an opposition that is not hardcore, in other words with the representatives of an opposition that looks moderately upon the Assad regime and is also tolerated by Damascus,” he said.
Turkey, Russia and Iran, as the guarantor countries of the Astana deal to push a cease-fire and political transition in Syria, are expected to assign the same number of members to the constitutional commission.
A commission will be tasked with drafting a new constitution that is likely to leave President Bashar Assad in power for a certain time.
“It is likely that some committees would be set up for these talks between regime and opposition groups with a mediation role of Russia. The new state structures, center-periphery relations, the main parameters of presidential and parliamentary elections, and the status of ethnic components of the Syrian people lead the agenda of the Sochi congress,” Kerim Has, a lecturer in Turkish-Russian relations at Moscow University, told Arab News.
“There are four large oppositional groups participating in the congress, and all of them will take place with the regime delegations in the work of a constitutional commission, which is a modest but vital step,” he said.
Following Ankara’s strong objections to extending an invitation to the PYD, the political wing of the YPG, to attend the congress, Russia did not send invitation to the group.
“Thus, the Kurds are represented by individuals, not as a group or party,” he said, adding however that those individuals may put the demands of PYD forward at the congress.
“It is also possible that some oppositional groups such as the Egypt-based Syria’s Tomorrow Movement, having strong links with the US-backed PYD, is going to request a discussion on the new state structure in Syria, including autonomy for Kurds,” Has said.
However for Has, it is possible that the advancement of the Turkish Army in Afrin is going to affect the participants’ profile and agenda during the next meetings in Sochi.
“In that sense, Turkey’s Afrin offensive surely paved a way for rearrangements on forming the participants’ list for the first meeting in Sochi; however it should be noted that all is up to the dynamics on the ground for the next round,” he said.
