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In his last big rally in Maryland before last week’s midterms, US President Joe Biden summed up how more-progressive forces are feeling as they watch what their country is currently going through.
“As I travel this country and the world, I see (a) great nation because I know we’re a good people,” he said, only to add: “We just have to remember who in the hell we are.”
It was hardly reassuring to know that the most powerful person in the country, and probably the world, is unsure of whether he or his fellow Americans are certain about what their country stands for anymore and what its mission is in the 21st century.
This epitomizes the deep crisis engulfing American society: A lack of direction and the social and political fragmentation that accompanies this.
When Biden and his Democratic Party colleagues woke up on Wednesday to the election results, they probably still adhered to their view of the greatness of their nation but were perplexed about how the electorate wants them go about sustaining it.
The results were hardly an endorsement of the Biden administration, far from it, but nor were they the hemorrhaging of support that Democrats were afraid of. Neither was it the resounding victory the Republicans had hoped for.
Above all, it was a confirmation of a polarized society that is not satisfied with those who are in charge but is deeply suspicious of the alternative.
Midterms in recent times have become a referendum on the president’s performance. For the president’s party to lose a handful of seats is not extraordinary. But for the Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives in the current toxic atmosphere, especially in Washington but equally across the country, in which cooperation, including on issues that both sides could easily agree on, has become hard to come by, it signals two difficult years ahead.
There is a real risk of political paralysis in the decision-making process until the 2024 elections, jeopardizing existential issues such as aid for Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression, or the implementation of a coherent and far-sighted strategy to tackle climate change. Not to mention a plethora of domestic issues that divide the US, including reform of the justice system, the right to abortion, gun control, the rising cost of living, tackling crime, and race relations, to name just a few.
These midterm results might have not have been the body blow that progressive America had feared, nor a complete rejection of the administration’s agenda. Nevertheless, without the support of Congress, Biden will increasingly have to resort to his executive powers to circumvent it if he wants to advance his agenda.
This might mitigate some of the difficulties caused by losing control of the House but, despite being constitutional, it is likely to cause further division and questions about his legitimacy from the Republicans.
From the outset, these were no ordinary midterms. Beyond the deep political divisions on the most basic issues that make or break a society, America is still reeling from the chaotic, toxic and directionless presidency of Donald Trump that ended in the Jan. 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill in Washington in 2021 and his lingering lies about the 2020 presidential election being rigged.
These anomalies in US politics still hang over the country like a dark cloud and will continue to do so should Trump maintain his grip on the Republican party. Interestingly enough, his baseless and destructive conspiratorial allegations might unite certain elements within the Republican party, but they might also scare enough others into taking action. They were a catalyst last week for the highest voter turnout since 2018, including many Democrats, which helped to soften the blow their party sustained.
The results were hardly an endorsement of the Biden administration, far from it, but nor were they the hemorrhaging of support that Democrats were afraid of.
Yossi Mekelberg
It is often the case that what most drives voters to go out and cast their ballot is not so much their support for one party as the fear of the irreparable damage the other might inflict on them and the country.
Among Democrats, much of their fear currently revolves around Republican tampering with the democratic system and its violations of individual rights, as demonstrated during the summer by the reversal of Roe v. Wade, a legal decision nearly 50 years ago that conferred the constitutional right to abortion.
That is symbolic of the danger of the Republican Party being taken over by politicians who have turned to that version of right-wing politics that is extremely religious, misogynist and racist, and is being orchestrated by Trump and his supporters. This worries not only the Democrats but also moderate Republicans.
It is never ideal for a party whose leader is the president to have to appeal to voters for their confidence when that leader has low approval ratings. During the lead-up to these midterms, according to the FiftyThirtyEight polling website, only 41 percent of Americans approved of Biden’s presidency, and on the eve of the vote more than half disapproved.
Yet, surprisingly, Biden still saw the best midterm results of any president in 20 years — although this might prove to be scant consolation considering that he will face a Republican-controlled House of Representatives for the remainder of his current term in office, even if Democrats hold onto control of the Senate after a run-off election in Georgia.
After all, despite much criticism of his first two years in office, not all of which is unjustified, he surprised most of us by presenting a wide-ranging and ambitious agenda. And instead of the midterms being a warning sign for Biden not to seek a second term, they might instead prove to be a shot in the arm and encourage him to run again in 2024, even though he will celebrate his 80th birthday this month.
It might take weeks, even months, to digest the full impact of these election results, from the state to the national level, but the most likely outcome is that Biden’s agenda will be slowed down by a hostile Congress.
It is not unrealistic to expect that Republican representatives will attempt to stop the investigation into the Jan. 6 insurrection and instead set about investigating the current administration, including the president’s family affairs, in the hope of digging up enough dirt to impeach him, mainly to distract from their own failure to deal with Trump’s false claims about the results of the 2020 election and his role in the attack on the heart of US democracy.
If this turns out to be what the next two years will hold for US politics, there will hardly be sufficient time to deal with the domestic and global challenges the US is facing, let alone for it to reassert itself as a global leader with a purposeful and progressive agenda.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.
Twitter: @YMekelberg