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Jointly organized by Baghdad and Paris, the Baghdad Summit of August 2021 was aimed at fostering regional and international support for Iraq, while simultaneously building France’s influence in the Middle East. The guest list included the presidents of Egypt and Iraq, the prime minister of the UAE and the emir of Qatar, reflecting the growing influence of France in a region hitherto the preserve of Anglo-American strategic interests. As French relationships have grown across the region, it is clear that this summit and its successors are only one facet of Paris’ growing Middle Eastern ambitions.
Iraq has always been a linchpin of French regional policy. In 2003, it famously opposed the US invasion partly owing to the significant business interests of French oil companies Total and Elf Aquitaine in the country. Having inked a further $27 billion of energy and water deals in 2021, Iraq is once again of critical importance to France. To that end, Paris has been the second-largest contributor to the missions to support Iraq’s fight against Daesh (both Operation Inherent Resolve and NATO Mission Iraq) and an important foreign investor in a country that has struggled to attract financing.
With Jordan having hosted the last summit, much to the chagrin of Iraq, Baghdad did its utmost to organize the third meeting in November under a theme of “Economic Integration and Regional Stability.” With the previous summit having resulted in the Iraqi-French strategic partnership agreement, signed in January 2023, followed by Qatar’s plan to buy a 30 percent stake in Total’s projects in Iraq, last month’s planned meeting was an important moment for Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and French President Emmanuel Macron. They had hoped to extend partnerships in the water, energy, transportation and defense sectors, but the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hamas has indefinitely postponed these plans.
The delay of the meeting has not, however, tempered France’s ambitions elsewhere in the region. Despite Macron initially having a characteristically pro-Israel stance, he has recently tempered French support for Israel while simultaneously backing Qatari efforts at a truce and using the recent COP28 meeting in Dubai to further diplomatic initiatives. These efforts are part of nothing short of a boom, as French companies continue to ink deals in the region worth billions of dollars.
French defense giant Airbus has been successful in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia with recent orders of civilian aircraft, Dassault is engaged in ongoing talks with Saudi Arabia and Iraq for the sale of its Rafale jet and the UAE and Qatar are currently taking delivery of their own. Safran, the second-largest manufacturer of aircraft in the world, signed deals worth more than $1.2 billion with Emirates airline at last month’s Dubai Airshow, following a deal it signed separately with Saudi Arabian Military Industries.
These defense and aerospace sales are echoed in other sectors. The UAE has collaborated with France in the energy space and, in July 2022, TotalEnergies and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company signed an energy supply agreement amid the insecurity of energy supply due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
France also enjoys strong ties with Saudi Arabia, with which it shares strategic interests in the region and where French advisers have been key in shaping the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 plans, particularly in terms of building domestic space sector capabilities, alongside agreements on energy cooperation and the development of renewable energy.
France and Qatar continue to collaborate, built on the central role of TotalEnergies in the development of the Gulf state. Qatar has also benefited from French assistance in the field of economic diversification. Earlier this year, it agreed to provide TotalEnergies with liquefied natural gas for the next 27 years, underlining the cooperation between the two countries.
France’s cooperation in the corporate world is mirrored by its development of the cultural space around the region. French soft power is symbolized in the Louvre Abu Dhabi, the world’s first museum to be born of a bilateral diplomatic agreement and which is now “France’s largest cultural project abroad.” These efforts have been replicated in Qatar, where France has sought to support cultural initiatives, and especially in Saudi Arabia, where Paris has entered into an agreement for the development of AlUla. The open-air museum and other cultural and heritage attractions planned by the project are being led by French presidential envoy for the initiative Gerard Mestrallet, alongside the French Agency for Alula Development.
France’s cooperation in the corporate world is mirrored by its development of the cultural space around the region.
Zaid M. Belbagi
The uptick in French diplomatic activity is, therefore, unlikely to be derailed by the postponed Baghdad Summit, which is more central to the international legitimacy of the Iraqi leadership and Jordan’s future prosperity.
There is no doubt that political and societal instability at home and eight armed coups in French-speaking Africa have hurt France’s ability to project power overseas. In North Africa, as the youth in traditionally Francophone Algeria and Morocco are increasingly favoring the English language over French, the Francophonie itself is seen as a limited prism with which France can influence the wider world. However, Macron’s efforts to cultivate ties in the Gulf and wider Middle East during a period when the UK has been occupied with domestic challenges and the US has been focused on Russia and China has seen a significant increase in French influence.
Within this context, a rescheduled Baghdad Summit will merely be another political victory for a president seeking to sustain France’s influence and its international convening power.
- Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC. X: @Moulay_Zaid