Pakistan Peoples Party’s uphill Punjab battle unlikely to yield results in upcoming elections — analysts

KARACHI: With less than a month to go before the national elections, political analysts say the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), once a key political player, may not be able to revive its fortunes in Pakistan’s most populous Punjab province.
Founded in 1967 by former prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, the PPP positioned itself as a secular, center-left socialist party and was voted into power four times in 1977, 1988, 1993 and 2008.
The party has mostly relied on a combination of pro-poor rhetoric and inspirational leadership since the 1970s. Its loyal supporters consider their founding leader and his daughter, ex-prime minister Benazir Bhutto, as political martyrs.
Bhutto was hanged in a controversial trial in April 1979 after his administration was toppled by General Ziaul Haq. Decades later, Benazir was assassinated in a gun-and-bomb attack months before the 2008 general elections.
The PPP once held sway over Pakistan, notably in Punjab, the most populous federating unit. Given the political dynamics of the country, any party winning majority seats in Punjab finds itself in a comfortable position to form the government at the center since the province has maximum representation at the National Assembly.
The PPP, which managed to secure 93 Punjab Assembly seats in the 2008 general elections, was dealt a severe blow when it won only seven seats 10 years later.
“The PPP can win with the support of electables [individuals with the means to win elections], but as a party, it has declined since 2013,” veteran journalist and political analyst Mazhar Abbas told Arab News in a recent conversation. “Its vote bank has decreased, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab [provinces], confining it to Sindh only.”
Journalist and political analyst Suhail Warraich said the PPP was historically the main contender for the electoral seats in Punjab and Pakistan against the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). However, he noted its decision to enter into an alliance with the PML-N during the days of former military ruler, General (r) Pervez Musharraf, led the people to support cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party in Punjab.
“The PTI captured the PPP’s space in the province,” Warraich told Arab News. “The PPP’s candidates thought it better to leave the party and join the PTI so they could compete against the PML-N. And with them also went their voters.”
Journalist and political analyst Nadia Naqi agreed that there was not much space for the PPP in central Punjab, though she said the party could make inroads into the province’s southern belt.
She said the PPP enjoyed pockets of support in that region, notably in Multan, where the Gilani family for decades had cherished electoral successes against opponents.
In May last year, several former lawmakers and politicians from the PML-N and the PTI joined the PPP’s ranks after extensive politicking in the area by the party’s top leader and former president of the country Asif Ali Zardari.
“Considering the kind of groundwork Zardari has done in southern Punjab, it seems that the PPP will gain some traction in the province,” Naqi told Arab News. “Looking at the overall situation, the Pakistan Peoples Party has initiated rallies in a manner that indicates it is not just a party of one province but that it represents the entire country.”
Warraich agreed.
“In central Punjab, there might be challenges, but some seats can be gained [by the PPP] in southern Punjab,” he said. “There are difficulties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but they can also secure some seats from Balochistan.”
Asked about the recent stories related to growing friction between Zardari and his son, Bilawal Bhutto, Abbas said the former president was in full control of the party and was behind the decisions taken by its top leaders.
This, he said, was despite the fact that Bilawal was the party chairman and that had nominated him to be the future candidate as the prime minister.
Describing the former PPP leaders, Benazir Bhutto and her father as “fighters,” Abbas said the PPP had declined in popularity under Zardari’s leadership.
“The aggression of the first two leaders kept the party popular,” he said.
Warraich noted differences between the leadership style of Zardari and his son, saying while the former adopted a more pragmatic approach to political decision-making, the latter was more emotional in his orientation.
He argued, however, they could utilize this to their advantage since it was a “good combination.” Bilawal could adopt a more aggressive political approach, he suggested, while Zardari could maintain ties with the military establishment.
“Nawaz Sharif and Shehbaz Sharif do the same thing,” he added.
Naqi, on the other hand, felt there were no differences between the two.
“Bilawal is the face of the party and Zardari is the policy of the party,” she said. “Whatever Bilawal says, does, or plans to do is Zardari’s policy.”
In a recent interview, the former Pakistani president said his son was more intelligent than him but needed to learn the political ropes.
PPP leader Saeed Ghani brushed off speculation about differences between the father and the son, saying: “There may be differences of opinion [between them] over some issues, but these differences never turn into severe disagreements to the extent that there is no way out.”
Ghani maintained both the top PPP leaders had their own “capabilities.”
When Benazir was assassinated, he said, many like him were under the impression that the party would not stand united since its “binding force” had gone. However, he said Zardari knew the art of keeping people together and managed to take everyone along.
“There has now been a perception that the PPP has only been confined to Sindh, but we have seen doors being opening for it in Balochistan and other provinces during the last couple of days [under its current leadership],” he added.