Eight years since its launch, Saudi Vision 2030 is already well ahead of schedule

Special Eight years since its launch, Saudi Vision 2030 is already well ahead of schedule
Vision 2030 is built upon three pillars: Building a vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation, rolled out in phases. (AFP)
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Updated 25 April 2024
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Eight years since its launch, Saudi Vision 2030 is already well ahead of schedule

Eight years since its launch, Saudi Vision 2030 is already well ahead of schedule
  • Launching Vision 2030 in 2016, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman vowed to improve the Kingdom’s business environment
  • Today, the economy is creating employment opportunities for citizens and long-term prosperity for the nation

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s transformation has involved many authors: The government, Saudi citizens, the private sector, and international partners. Their combined efforts have meant that by 2023 — the Vision 2030 midpoint — the plan was already ahead of schedule.

Eight years since its launch, the social reform and economic diversification blueprint’s promise is quickly being realized, with 87 percent of its 1,064 initiatives deemed completed or on track.

At its core, Vision 2030 is built upon three pillars: Building “a vibrant society,” “a thriving economy,” and “an ambitious nation,” rolled out with a phased approach, allowing the Kingdom to adapt, evolve, and become more agile.

As Saudi Arabia approaches the end of phase two — and the start of the 2025 implementation phase — the economic strategy, which was not without its doubters early on, is no longer a mere idea but a genuine transformation.




Eight years since the Kingdom's social reform and economic diversification blueprint was launched, 87 percent of the 1,064 initiatives are deemed completed or on track. (Getty Imaes/AFP)

By the end of 2023, some 197 of Vision 2030’s 243 key performance indicators had been fully achieved. Of those, 176 exceeded their targets.

A similar trend is evident across various socio-economic domains, prompting the nation to reconsider and set higher ambitions and targets for 2030. 

A technicolor economy

Launching the economic diversification plan in 2016, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman vowed to improve the Kingdom’s business environment, allowing the economy to flourish and drive employment opportunities for citizens and long-term prosperity for the nation.

From increasing foreign direct investments, growing the number of small and medium-sized enterprises and opening up new streams in fields like tourism and entertainment, the nation documented a record contribution from non-oil earnings.

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By the end of 2023, revenues surpassed $121.8 billion and contributed 50 percent to the real gross domestic product.

The Kingdom’s non-oil GDP amounted to over $503.6 billion, soaring past the baseline of over $404.9 billion and edging close to the target goal of $515.6 billion.

This comes as Saudi Arabia has implemented a series of economic and regulatory undertakings to stimulate private sector growth and attract foreign investment. These reforms include easing restrictions on foreign ownership in various sectors, streamlining business regulations and privatizing state-owned enterprises.

These ongoing shifts and Riyadh’s strategic location at the crossroads of three continents made it a valuable investment destination for global businesses. In 2023, more than 180 companies obtained permits to open regional offices in the Saudi capital.




Saudi Arabia's economic diversification plan has allowed the economy to flourish and drive employment opportunities for citizens. (Supplied) 

Concurrently, the private sector’s contribution to the total GDP amounted to 45 percent, marking a notable increase from the baseline of 40.3 percent and moving closer to the Vision’s target of 65 percent.

Echoing this notion, foreign direct investment showed notable growth, contributing 2.4 percent to the country’s GDP. 

The Kingdom’s sovereign wealth entity, the Public Investment Fund, had assets under management of over $749 billion in 2023, surpassing the annual target of approximately $720 billion. 

These successes prompted the Kingdom to rank first in the Middle East and North Africa region for venture capital investment in 2023, capturing 52 percent of the total capital deployed in the area with a value of $1.4 billion.

Furthermore, the economic participation and opportunities sub-index has increased to 0.637 from the baseline of 0.33, surpassing the annual target of 0.592.

An equitable workforce

Saudi Arabia achieved its lowest unemployment rate of 7.7 percent in 2023, compared to 12.3 percent in 2016, surpassing the 2023 target of 8 percent and nearing the Vision 2030 mark of 7 percent.

Yet, the nation’s most notable employment achievement remains characterized by a previously unsung section of its labor force, with female participation now standing at an all-time high of 35.5 percent, surpassing the 2030 goal.

Saudi Arabia has seen a growing number of women taking on leadership roles in various sectors, including government, business, academia, and media.

This success was further attributed to a government that has actively worked to expand job opportunities for women across a wide range of sectors, including healthcare, education, and finance as well as technology and hospitality.

Furthermore, Vision 2030 encourages female entrepreneurship and the growth of small businesses owned and operated by women. Initiatives such as loan programs, business incubators, and networking events provide support and resources for aspiring female entrepreneurs to start and grow their businesses.

This led the nation to announce that it will be amending its previously highlighted Vision 2030 target for female participation.

SME boom

Small and medium enterprises, which are positioned to become a vital part of economic development in the Kingdom and an enabler to achieving Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, have recorded over 200 percent growth since the launch of the national plan.

This growth encapsulated SR10 billion ($2.67 billion) in financial aid for SMEs and 6.7 million employees in the sector by the end of 2023. 

In 2022, the Small and Medium Enterprises Bank was established by the Council of Ministers as one of several development funds and financial institutions affiliated with the National Development Fund. 

The SME Bank aims to increase financing provided to the sector and enhance institutions’ contributions to providing innovative funding solutions that help achieve stability for this sector.

Therefore, the Vision’s initiatives have further supported several programs, centers, and services provided by the Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority, also known as Monsha’at.

Among them is the “Tomoh” program, a community for fast-growing SMEs, aiming to stimulate their growth through services and programs. Tomoh contributed to listing 18 enterprises in the Saudi Stock Exchange parallel market “Nomu.”

 


Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings

Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings
Updated 7 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings

Saudi Arabia, UAE banks to post strong credit growth in 2025: Fitch Ratings

RIYADH: Banks operating in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to post strong credit growth in 2025, driven by high crude prices and the expansion of the non-oil economy, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, Fitch Ratings projected that banks in the Kingdom will witness a financing growth of around 12 percent in 2025, about twice the average of the Gulf Cooperation Council region. 

The US-based agency added that corporates will account for almost 65 percent to 70 percent of new financing among Saudi banks in 2025. 

The analysis echoes similar views to those put forward by Moody’s in November, which predicted that Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative, aimed at diversifying the Kingdom’s economy, could accelerate the growth of the banking sector in the country. 

In its report, Fitch Ratings said: “The operating environment for banks in the Kingdom is underpinned by high oil prices and government spending, which support the country’s giga-projects and the Vision 2030 strategy, resulting in solid non-oil gross domestic product growth.”

It added: “Fitch Ratings forecasts real non-oil GDP growth to average a still strong 4.5 percent over 2024–2025, compared to 5 percent over 2022–2023. We expect the sector’s financial metrics to remain strong in 2025.” 

The report said that the gradual execution of giga-projects should continue to underpin banks’ interest in this segment, although the current share of giga-project-related financing is minor for most rated banks.

However, the credit rating agency warned that the net foreign assets of banks in the Kingdom could continue to be negative in 2025 due to high-cost domestic term deposits and increased demand for foreign currencies. 

Regional outlook

According to the analysis, banks in the Middle East region are expected to maintain sound profitability, solid liquidity, and adequate capital buffers for their risk profiles in 2025, while asset quality should remain stable. 

In November, a report released by S&P Global said that banks in the GCC are expected to maintain strong asset quality, profitability, and ample liquidity through 2025 thanks to solid capitalization and well-managed balance sheets. 

S&P Global, however, warned that heightened geopolitical tensions and a sharp drop in oil prices could negatively affect the creditworthiness of financial institutions in the region. 

UAE

Fitch said that banks in the UAE will enjoy favorable business and operating conditions in 2025 thanks to high oil prices and increased economic activities. 

The analysis added that banks in the Emirates will achieve a loan growth of around 9 percent in 2025, a figure well above the GCC average but slightly below its Arab neighbor, Saudi Arabia. 

“We expect UAE banks’ funding and liquidity to remain strong and deposits will continue growing in line with lending. Liquidity will continue to be supported by large government deposits, driven by the sovereign’s solid net external assets position, still-strong fiscal metrics and recurring hydrocarbon revenues,” added Fitch. 

Egypt

The report highlighted the growth of the banking sector in Egypt and said that general business and operating conditions for financial institutions in the country are expected to improve next year. 

According to Fitch, falling inflation, improved investor confidence, and healthy foreign currency liquidity conditions are some of the major factors that could strengthen the banking sector in Egypt in 2025. 

Bahrain

In Bahrain, credit growth among banks is expected to be reasonable, albeit still modest, compared to GCC peers, at around 4.5 percent in 2025. 

“Fitch expects the business environment for banks in Bahrain to remain adequate, underpinned by some operating condition improvements. Lower lending rates should ease pressures on the sector’s corporate loan books, in particular real estate and contracting,” said the report. 

The credit rating agency predicted stable asset quality metrics for Bahraini banks in 2025, with lower rates providing relief to corporate borrowers and households and the sector profitability to remain sound.

Kuwait

According to the report, the banking sector’s credit growth in Kuwait is expected to hover between 5 percent and 6 percent in 2025, albeit hindered by still-high interest rates and only moderate real non-oil GDP growth. 

The analysis revealed that liquidity among Kuwaiti banks will remain strong next year due to large and stable deposits from government-related entities and gains from high oil prices. 

Oman

Fitch revealed that Oman’s Vision 2040 program aimed at diversifying the country’s economy could open more opportunities for banks in the future. 

“Oman’s Vision 2040 will provide growth opportunities for banks and ensure a healthy lending pipeline in key sectors of the economy, as well as reduce banks’ reliance on government spending in the long run. However, the absence of a deep capital market limits access for corporates to funding sources other than the country’s domestic banks,” said the study. 

The analysis added that liquidity among Omani banks will continue to be supported by stable government and government-related entity deposits, while high oil prices are expected to support the growth in customer deposits. 

Qatar

In Qatar, the general business and operating environment for banks are projected to improve in 2025. 

The report revealed that the credit growth among Qatari banks could pick up to 5.5 percent next year but will remain below that of Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to their particularly strong operating conditions. 

Jordan

In Jordan, the market conditions of banks are expected to remain challenging next year, while the sector will witness a lending growth of 3.5 percent. 

“The operating environment for banks in Jordan remains challenging due to below-potential and structurally weak real GDP growth, and high unemployment and geopolitical risks, which negatively affect tourism and exports,” concluded Fitch.


Fitch affirms Saudi Aramco at ‘A+’ with stable outlook

Fitch affirms Saudi Aramco at ‘A+’ with stable outlook
Updated 1 min 43 sec ago
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Fitch affirms Saudi Aramco at ‘A+’ with stable outlook

Fitch affirms Saudi Aramco at ‘A+’ with stable outlook

RIYADH: Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Saudi Aramco’s long-term issuer default ratings at “A+” for both foreign- and local-currency ratings, with a stable outlook, reflecting the oil giant’s strong financial standing and its crucial role in the Saudi economy.

The rating is underpinned by Aramco’s robust financial profile, though it is capped by the rating of its majority shareholder, the Saudi government, which owns 81.48 percent of the company. The Public Investment Fund holds an additional 16 percent. According to Fitch, this structure influences Aramco’s ratings due to the government’s significant stake and control.

Fitch assigned Aramco a standalone credit profile of “aa+,” highlighting its solid financial position. The agency also gave the company a short-term IDR of “F1+,” which is aligned with the sovereign rating.

The affirmation comes after Aramco’s strong performance in 2023, when its total liquid production averaged 10.7 million barrels per day, and its hydrocarbon output reached 12.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This performance outpaced major global peers, including Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP.

In its statement, Fitch noted that Aramco’s rating is constrained by Saudi Arabia’s rating, in line with Fitch’s Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria. This is due to the government’s substantial influence over Aramco, particularly its regulation of production levels in accordance with OPEC+ commitments.

Fitch also emphasized the company’s “Very Strong” governance, reflecting the government’s strategic oversight, including the ability to determine Aramco’s maximum sustainable oil production capacity.

Aramco’s conservative financial management further bolsters its credit profile, with the company’s leverage expected to remain lower than that of other major global oil and gas companies. Fitch also praised Aramco’s sustainable dividend policy, which is set to include a base dividend of $81.2 billion in 2024, with additional performance-linked payouts.

“Under our oil price assumptions, we expect Saudi Aramco’s capital expenditures and base dividend payments to be broadly covered by operating cash flow. We also assume that the company has the flexibility to adjust its dividend commitment if oil prices decline or if capital expenditures exceed current forecasts,” Fitch said.

In 2024, Aramco is expected to pay total dividends of $124 billion, including $43.1 billion in performance-linked payouts, reflecting record cash flows from 2022-23. Fitch forecasts a reduction in capital expenditures from $50 billion in 2024 to $35 billion by 2028, with annual dividends projected to decrease to $82 billion over the same period.

The agency also highlighted Aramco’s critical role in Saudi Arabia’s economy, noting the company’s importance as a key provider of feedstock for power generation and other essential industries, in addition to its vast reserves and production capacity.

Fitch anticipates that the Saudi government would provide support if needed, although the company’s strong financial position has historically not required direct state intervention.

On a national level, Fitch assigned Aramco a long-term rating of “AAA (sau)” based on its substantial reserve base, strong profitability, and market position.

The company’s standing was also compared favorably to other prominent Saudi entities, such as Saudi Basic Industries Corp. and Saudi Electricity Co., within Fitch’s National Scale Rating framework.


Robust manufacturing sector lifts Saudi industrial index by 5%: GASTAT

Robust manufacturing sector lifts Saudi industrial index by 5%: GASTAT
Updated 10 December 2024
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Robust manufacturing sector lifts Saudi industrial index by 5%: GASTAT

Robust manufacturing sector lifts Saudi industrial index by 5%: GASTAT

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s industrial production index rose by 5 percent year on year in October, driven by robust growth across key economic sectors, official data showed. 

According to figures from the General Authority for Statistics, the index also edged up 0.4 percent month on month, reaching 106.9 points. 

The mining and quarrying sub-index, which includes oil production, recorded a slight 0.4 percent annual increase, with oil output ticking up to 8.97 million barrels per day from 8.94 million a year earlier. 

Despite the annual increase, monthly performance for this sector remained stable with no significant changes recorded between September and October. 

The manufacturing sector continued its robust growth, recording a 12.4 percent year-on-year increase in October. This expansion was primarily driven by a 32.6 percent surge in the production of coke and refined petroleum products compared to the same month of 2023. 

Saudi Arabia’s industrial production, central to Vision 2030, is driving economic diversification through manufacturing and non-oil growth. 

Other contributors to the sector’s growth included the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, which rose by 0.6 percent, and food products, which grew by 4.8 percent. 

On a month-to-month basis, the manufacturing sub-index advanced by 1.1 percent, driven by a 2.7 percent increase in coke and refined petroleum products and a 0.2 percent rise in chemicals and chemical products.  

Other manufacturing activities exhibited varied growth rates. The manufacture of non-metallic mineral products increased by 1.8 percent year-on-year and 0.8 percent month-on-month. 

Basic metals manufacturing expanded by 4.3 percent annually and 1 percent compared to the previous month. 

Paper and paper product manufacturing saw an 11 percent annual rise and a 1.1 percent monthly increase, while the production of electrical devices grew by 9.2 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent month on month. 

Furniture manufacturing posted notable growth, rising 14.4 percent annually and 0.5 percent monthly. Other economic activities within the manufacturing sector recorded a 4.3 percent year-on-year increase and a 0.3 percent monthly uptick. 

In the utilities sector, the sub-index for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply rose by 6.2 percent year on year. Similarly, the sub-index for water supply and sewerage as well as waste management activities climbed by 8.4 percent over the same period. 

These sectors also recorded positive monthly growth. The sub-index for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply rose by 0.9 percent compared to September 2024, while the water supply, sewerage, and waste management sub-index increased by 1.4 percent. 

In October, oil-related activities expanded by 5.4 percent year on year and 0.5 percent month on month. 

Non-oil activities also showed solid growth, rising 4 percent annually and 0.3 percent monthly. This highlights Saudi Arabia’s commitment to diversifying its industrial base as part of its Vision 2030 initiative. 

The IPI tracks changes in industrial output, using the International Standard Industrial Classification framework to monitor sectors such as mining, manufacturing, utilities, and waste management. 


Pakistan stock market crosses 111,000 points on hopes of interest rate cut 

Pakistan stock market crosses 111,000 points on hopes of interest rate cut 
Updated 10 December 2024
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Pakistan stock market crosses 111,000 points on hopes of interest rate cut 

Pakistan stock market crosses 111,000 points on hopes of interest rate cut 
  • KSE-100 index climbed 1,482.06 points, or 1.35 percent, to reach 111,452.44 points
  • Pakistan slashed interest rates by 250 basis points in November to revive economy

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) crossed 111,000 points during intra-day trading on Tuesday, analysts said, amid hopes of an interest rate cut.
The benchmark KSE-100 index climbed 1,482.06 points, or 1.35 percent, to reach 111,452.44 points from the previous close of 109,970.38 points, making it the 10th consecutive session when shares traded in green at the market.
Analysts credited the rally to positive sentiment prevailing in the market amid an optimistic overall outlook.
“Not unusual to see profit-taking come through after the steep recent increase,” Raza Jafri, head of equities at Intermarket Securities, told Arab News. “The overall outlook remains bullish though on reducing interest rates and the government’s commitment to reforms.”
Pakistan had slashed interest rate by 250 basis points in November to help revive a sluggish economy, amid a major drop in the annual inflation rate. The State Bank has slashed interest rate by 700 basis points (bps) in four consecutive meetings since June, bringing it to 15 percent.
According to a poll by Topline Securities, 71 percent of participants expect the central bank to announce a minimum rate cut of 200bps at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Dec. 16.
Arif Habib Corporation CEO Ahsan Mehanti said stocks remained bullish after National Savings Schemes rates were cut, amid speculation of further reductions.
“Robust economic indicators, rupee stability and recovery in global equities on receding geo-political tensions played a catalyst role in record surge at the PSX,” he told Arab News.
Pakistan’s annual consumer inflation also dropped to 4.9 percent in November below government projections, primarily due to a high base from the previous year. This marked a decline from 7.2 percent in October and a significant fall from the nearly 40 percent multi-decade high recorded in May 2023.


UAE to impose 15% minimum top-up tax on large multinationals from January

UAE to impose 15% minimum top-up tax on large multinationals from January
Updated 10 December 2024
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UAE to impose 15% minimum top-up tax on large multinationals from January

UAE to impose 15% minimum top-up tax on large multinationals from January
  • DMTT is part of the OECD’s global minimum corporate tax agreement which has 136 signatories
  • UAE’s finance ministry said it is also considering introducing several corporate tax incentives

DUBAI: The UAE will impose a minimum top-up tax (DMTT) of 15 percent on large multinational companies operating in the country starting in January, the finance ministry said on Monday as the government seeks to boost non-oil revenue.
The DMTT is part of the OECD’s global minimum corporate tax agreement which has 136 signatories, including the UAE, to ensure big companies pay a minimum 15 percent and to make tax avoidance harder.
In amendments to the corporate tax law, the UAE’s finance ministry said the DMTT will apply to companies with consolidated global revenue of 750 million euros ($793.50 million) or more in at least two out of the four financial years preceding the ones in which the tax comes into effect.
The UAE, including Dubai, is a hub for multinationals in the Middle East and the tax amendments come a year after the UAE began rolling out a 9 percent business tax, with exemptions for the many free zones that power it's economy.
The DMTT comes under the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Two-Pillar Solution, which stipulates that large multinational enterprises pay a minimum effective tax rate of 15 percent on profits in each country where they operate.
The UAE’s finance ministry said it is also considering introducing several corporate tax incentives, including one for research and development that would apply for tax periods starting in 2026.
The expenditure-based incentive would offer a potential 30 percent to 50 percent refundable tax credit depending on the size of the company’s operations in the UAE and revenue, the ministry added.
A refundable tax credit for high-value employment activities that would be granted to companies as a percentage of eligible income costs for employees is also being considered and could be applied as early as Jan. 1 2025, the ministry said.
Such proposed incentives remain subject to legislative approval.