Israeli government quietly sends millions to unauthorized West Bank settler outposts

Israeli government quietly sends millions to unauthorized West Bank settler outposts
Anti-settlement monitoring group Peace Now estimates approximately 500 Israelis live on the small, unauthorized farms and 25,000 more live in larger outposts. (AP)
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Updated 23 July 2024
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Israeli government quietly sends millions to unauthorized West Bank settler outposts

Israeli government quietly sends millions to unauthorized West Bank settler outposts
  • Some of those outposts have been linked to settler violence against Palestinians and are sanctioned by the US
  • Palestinians say all settlements are illegal or illegitimate and undermine hopes for a two-state solution

JERUSALEM: The Israeli government has budgeted millions of dollars to protect small, unauthorized Jewish farms in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, underwriting tiny outposts meant to grow into full-fledged settlements, according to an anti-settlement monitoring group.
Documents uncovered by Peace Now illustrate how Israel’s pro-settler government has quietly poured money into the unauthorized outposts, which are separate from its more than 100 officially recognized settlements. Some of those outposts have been linked to settler violence against Palestinians and are sanctioned by the US.
Palestinians and the international community say all settlements are illegal or illegitimate and undermine hopes for a two-state solution.
The Ministry of Settlements and National Mission, which is headed by a far-right settler leader, confirmed it budgeted 75 million shekels ($20.5 million) last year for security equipment for “young settlements” — the term it uses for unauthorized Jewish farms and outposts in the West Bank. The money was quietly authorized in December while the country’s attention was focused on the war against Hamas in Gaza.
Peace Now said the funds have been used for vehicles, drones, cameras, generators, electric gates, fences and new roads that reach some of the more remote farms.
The group estimates approximately 500 people live on the small, unauthorized farms and 25,000 more live in larger outposts. Those outposts, while not officially authorized by the government, often receive tacit support before they are retroactively legalized.
Hagit Ofran, director of Peace Now’s “settlement watch” program, said the funding was the first time the Israeli government has channeled money to the outposts so openly.
Rights groups say the expanding network of remote farms atop West Bank hilltops are the primary drivers of violence and displacement of Palestinians.
In the last month alone, Israel’s government has legalized five formerly unauthorized settlements and made the largest land grab in the West Bank in three decades, declaring a wide swath of the territory state land in preparation for new construction.
Palestinians say violence by people associated with these farms has soared since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, which sparked Israel’s war against the militant group in the Gaza Strip.
On Friday, the top United Nations court said Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories is unlawful and called for an immediate halt to settlement construction. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly denounced the nonbinding opinion, saying the territories are part of the Jewish people’s historic homeland.
Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza — areas claimed by the Palestinians for a future state — in the 1967 Mideast war. It has settled over 500,000 Jews in the West Bank, most of whom live on authorized settlements, in addition to over 200,000 others in contested east Jerusalem, which it claims as part of its capital.
Netanyahu’s far-right government is dominated by West Bank settlers and pro-settler politicians. Netanyahu has placed his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, in a new position inside the Defense Ministry overseeing settlement construction and development.
The United States, Britain, and the European Union have imposed international sanctions on 13 hard-line Israeli settlers, some of whom are associated with the outpost farms — as well as two affiliated outposts and four groups — over accusations of attacks and harassment against Palestinians. The measures are meant as a deterrent, and they expose people to asset freezes and travel and visa bans, though the freezes have been less effective.
The office of Orit Strock, the Minister of Settlements and National Mission, said the funds were coordinated with the Defense Ministry and “carried out in accordance with all laws.” It added that Strock, herself a longtime settler leader, “sees great importance in strengthening settlements” despite international condemnation.
The budget was approved in December and predates the sanctions. The government did not publish a list of the farms and outposts that received funding, so it’s unclear if the sanctioned farms and outposts are among them. But it’s likely that at least some of them are since the budget supported 68 of the nearly 70 farms identified by Peace Now, Ofran said. The number of farms has since grown to more than 90.
Peace Now said it learned of the funding decision from recordings and presentations shared at a conference of the pro-settler Religious Zionism Party last month at the “Shaharit Farm” outpost in the northern West Bank. Strock and Smotrich were in attendance.
US officials including President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have repeatedly raised concerns about the surge in settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel’s former top general in the West Bank raised similar concerns in a recent retirement speech.
Israel has said it is taking action against such attacks and argues that the sanctions are unnecessary.


Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar

Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar
Updated 24 June 2025
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Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar

Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar
  • Trump posted on Truth Social that the 24-hour phased-in ceasefire will begin about midnight Tuesday Eastern time. He said it would bring an “Official END” to the war
  • A senior White House official said Trump communicated directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure the ceasefire

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a US military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites. Iran said that as long as Israel stopped its attacks early Tuesday morning, it would halt theirs.
Israel did not immediately acknowledge any ceasefire, but there were no reports of Israeli strikes in Iran after 4 a.m. local. Heavy Israeli strikes continued in Tehran and other cities until shortly before that time.

“As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X. “However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
His message was posted at 4:16 a.m. Tehran time. Araghchi added: “The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.”
Trump posted on Truth Social that the 24-hour phased-in ceasefire will begin about midnight Tuesday Eastern time. He said it would bring an “Official END” to the war.

Iran targetted a US base in Qatar. (AFP)


The Israeli military declined to comment on Trump’s statement and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment.
Speaking on Iranian state television, an overnight anchor repeatedly referred to a “Trump-claimed” ceasefire, without saying whether Tehran accepted it. The anchor noted: “Simultaneously with Trump’s claim of a ceasefire, the Zionist enemy targeted several points in the cities of Tehran, Urmia and Rasht, including a residential area in the capital.”
Israel’s military put out a warning earlier that District 6 in Tehran could be struck.
Early Tuesday, Iran, mirroring the language and maps of the Israeli military, put out a warning telling people in Ramat Gan it would target “military infrastructure” there.

HIGHLIGHT

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that there was no ceasefire agreement with Israel as of now, but if it stopped its attacks then Tehran would also stop firing

Iran’s attack Monday indicated it was prepared to step back from escalating tensions in the volatile region. The US was warned by Iran in advance, and there were no casualties, said Trump, who dismissed the attack as a “very weak response.”
Qatar condemned the attack on Al Udeid Air Base as “a flagrant violation” of its sovereignty, airspace and international law. Qatar said it intercepted all but one missile, though it was not clear if that missile caused any damage.
Iran said the volley matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Iran also said it targeted the base because it was outside of populated areas.
Those comments, made immediately after the attack, suggested Iran wanted to de-escalate with the United States, something Trump himself said after the strikes early Sunday on Iran.
Qatar Maj. Gen. Shayeq Al Hajjri said 19 missiles were fired at the base that is home to the Combined Air Operations Center, which provides command and control of air power across the region, as well as the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing, the largest such wing in the world. Trump said 14 missiles were fired, 13 were knocked down and one was “set free” because it posed no threat.


Iran announced the attack on state television, with a caption calling it “a mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression.”
Just before the explosions, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: “We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.”
Earlier reports that a missile was launched at a base housing American forces in Iraq were a false alarm, a senior US military official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said debris from a malfunctioning Iranian missile targeting Israel had triggered an alert of an impending attack on the Ain Assad base.
Israel expands war to include symbolic targets
On the 11th day of the conflict, Israel and Iran traded airstrikes that have become a reality for civilians in both countries since Israel started the war to target Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.
Iran struck Israel with a barrage of missiles and drones while Israel said it attacked “regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran.”
But Israeli officials insisted they did not seek the overthrow of Iran’s government, their archenemy since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The latest strikes unfolded only hours after Trump himself mentioned the possibility of regime change a day after inserting America into the war with its stealth-bomber strike on three Iranian nuclear sites.
“If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” he asked on his Truth Social website.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later described Trump as “simply raising a question.”

A US Marine watches as Iranian-US demonstrators gather to call for regime change in Iran, as US President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, in Los Angeles. (AFP)


The US strikes over the weekend prompted fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran said the US had crossed “a very big red line” with its risky gambit to strike with missiles and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.
Israel aims to wind down the war in the coming days, but that will depend on the Iranians, an Israeli official said on condition of anonymity to discuss high-level internal deliberations. The official spoke before Trump’s announcement about a ceasefire.
Israel’s preferred outcome is for Iran to agree to a ceasefire and reenter negotiations with the US over its nuclear program, the official said. But Israel is prepared for the possibility of an extended low-intensity war of attrition or period of “quiet for quiet,” in which it would closely monitor Iran’s activities and strike if it identifies new threats.
Tehran strikes open new chapter of war
Before the ceasefire announcement, the Israeli military warned Iranians it would continue to attack military sites around Tehran as its focus shifted to include symbolic targets. The military issued the warning on the social platform X, though Iranians are struggling to access the outside world due to an Internet shutdown.
In Tehran, Israel hit the headquarters of the military force that suppressed recent protests and blew open a gate at Evin prison. That facility is known for holding political activists. Iranian state television shared black-and-white surveillance footage of the strike at the facility known for holding dual nationals and Westerners often used by Iran as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West.
Evin also has specialized units for political prisoners run by the paramilitary, all-volunteer Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The facility is the target of both US and European Union sanctions.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in Iran or significant damage.

The price of oil tumbled. (AP)


Iranian state television aired footage it said was shot inside Evin, with prisoners under control. However, the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran said many families of detainees “have expressed deep concern about the safety and condition of their loved ones” in the prison.
According to an Israeli official familiar with the government’s strategy, Israel is targeting these sites to put pressure on the Iranian administration but is not actively seeking to topple it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.
The Israeli military also confirmed it struck roads around Iran’s Fordo enrichment facility to obstruct access to the site. The underground site was one of those hit in Sunday’s attack by the United States. The Israeli military did not elaborate.
In Vienna, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said he expected there to be heavy damage at the Fordo facility following Sunday’s US airstrike there with sophisticated bunker-buster bombs.
Several Iranian officials, including Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, have claimed Iran removed nuclear material from targeted sites ahead of time.
Iran presses on attacking Israel
Iran said its Monday attacks targeted the Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv, according to Iranian state television.

Global airlines had been suspended or reduced flights in the Middle East as the conflict between Israel and Iran raged. (AFP)


Explosions were also heard in Jerusalem, possibly from air defense systems in action, and Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency rescue service said there had been no reports of injuries.
In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded 3,458 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists.
The group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from Iranian unrest such as the protests surrounding the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, said of those killed, it identified 387 civilians and 268 security force personnel.
The US has evacuated some 250 American citizens and their immediate family members from Israel by government, military and charter flights that began over the weekend, a State Department official said.
There are roughly 700,000 American citizens, most of them dual US-Israeli citizens, believed to be in Israel.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who leads one of Iran’s closest allies, said Monday after meeting in Moscow with the Iranian foreign minister that they had explored “how we can get out of today’s situation.”
Putin called the Israeli and American attacks on Iran an “absolutely unprovoked aggression.”

 

 


NGOs urge closing of Gaza aid group, warn of possible ‘war crimes’ liability

An Israeli aircraft fires a flare, in Gaza City, June 22, 2025. (REUTERS)
An Israeli aircraft fires a flare, in Gaza City, June 22, 2025. (REUTERS)
Updated 24 June 2025
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NGOs urge closing of Gaza aid group, warn of possible ‘war crimes’ liability

An Israeli aircraft fires a flare, in Gaza City, June 22, 2025. (REUTERS)
  • The signatories include the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, the American Center for Constitutional Rights, and the International Commission of Jurists

UNITED NATIONS, United States: More than a dozen human rights organizations called Monday on the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), whose aid distribution has seen chaotic and deadly scenes, to cease its operations, warning of possible complicity in war crimes.
“This new model of privatized, militarized aid distribution constitutes a radical and dangerous shift away from established international humanitarian relief operations,” the 15 organizations said in an open letter.
It called the US-backed group’s operations “dehumanizing, repeatedly deadly and (contributing) to the forced displacement of the very population it purports to help.”
The groups urged GHF and all the organizations and individuals who have been supporting its work, to “to cease their operations.”
“Failure to do so may expose these organizations... to further risk of criminal and civil liability for aiding and abetting or otherwise being complicit in crimes under international law, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide in violation of international law,” the letter warned.
The signatories include the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, the American Center for Constitutional Rights, and the International Commission of Jurists.
An officially private effort with opaque funding, GHF began operations on May 26 after Israel completely cut off supplies into Gaza for more than two months, sparking warnings of mass famine.
The United Nations and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the foundation over concerns it was designed to cater to Israeli military objectives.
According to figures issued by the health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, at least 450 people have been killed and nearly 3,500 injured since GHF began distributing meal boxes in late May.
GHF has denied responsibility for deaths near its aid points, contradicting statements from witnesses and Gaza rescue services.

 


Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium

Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium
Updated 24 June 2025
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Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium

Demand by UN for access to Iran’s uranium
  • ‘We must ... go back to Iran’s nuclear sites and account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 400 kg enriched to 60 percent,’ IAEA chief says

VIENNA: The UN nuclear watchdog on Monday demanded access to highly enriched uranium that Iran is thought to have moved before US attacks last weekend on its nuclear development sites.

“Iran, Israel and the Middle East need peace,” said Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. “We must ... go back to Iran’s nuclear sites and account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 400 kg enriched to 60 percent.”

US strikes on the underground Fordow nuclear site had probably caused “significant damage,” Grossi said, but it was impossible to assess without a visit.

Meanwhile Israel launched new strikes on Monday on the notorious Evin prison and Revolutionary Guard command centers in Tehran. Video footage showed rescue workers combing the flattened wreckage of a building at the prison, and carrying an injured man on a stretcher.

Israel said its strikes on Tehran were intended to hit the Iranian ruling apparatus broadly, and its ability to sustain power. Evin has long been Iran’s primary jail for political and security detainees. Several high-profile foreign prisoners are also held there.
 


Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat

Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat
Updated 24 June 2025
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Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat

Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat
  • South Korea ow restricts only chicken meat from the region affected by the bird flu, the ministry said, without providing more details

SAO PAULO: Iraq removed a trade ban it had imposed on Brazilian chicken meat after a bird flu case on a commercial farm last month, while South Korea eased its restrictions, the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry said on Monday.
South Korea ow restricts only chicken meat from the region affected by the bird flu, the ministry said, without providing more details. Both Iraq and South Korea had imposed nationwide trade bans to Brazilian chicken meat.
Brazil hopes to reverse trade bans after declaring last week itself free of the bird flu virus in commercial flocks following a 28-day period without any new commercial farm outbreaks.

 


What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy

What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy
Updated 24 June 2025
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What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy

What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy
  • Efforts in Geneva to restart diplomacy now hang in the balance, with Iran and the US hardening positions after recent strikes
  • Analysts warn that without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiralling into a wider war

LONON/DUBAI: The Iranian missile attack which was intercepted by Qatar on Monday night when it launched missiles against US troops stationed at Al-Udeid Air Base comes as a major setback for peace in the region.

As Iranian missiles lit up the sky over Doha in a retaliatory strike targeting the US military, a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has now drawn in the US, seemed further away than ever, with Tehran appearing to wash its hands of further nuclear talks.

Although no casualties were reported at Al-Udeid Air Base — the largest US base in the region — Iran’s counterattack is likely to invite additional American strikes and further regional escalation.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both condemned the attack on Qatari sovereignty. The Saudi foreign ministry lambasted Iran for its “unjustifiable” attack, offering to deploy “all its capabilities” to support Doha.

Since the Israeli-Iran conflict dramatically escalated over the weekend, the mixed global response to Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities is testing the limits of modern diplomacy and exposing deep divisions among major powers.

This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)

What most seem to agree on is that while diplomacy is on the decline, it could have been the solution.

Experts say the fractured international reaction to the escalation reflects a shifting global order and the erosion of the post-Cold War consensus.

“There is no ‘global response’ to speak of at this moment,” Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News. “This Israel-Iran war is taking place in a fractured geopolitical context.”

He argues that divisions among the US, China and Russia “make it next to impossible to marshal a collective diplomatic effort in the way that the world did in previous eras, like the immediate post-Cold War period of the 1990s.

“That’s why we will continue to see a lot of empty words disconnected from the actions that are actually reshaping the Middle East as we know it.”

On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites including Natanz, Isfahan and Tehran, reportedly killing senior officials, nuclear scientists and civilians. In response, Iran launched “Operation True Promise III,” firing missiles and drones into Israel. Several struck Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities, causing civilian casualties.

Despite initially assuring G7 allies that the US would stay out of the conflict, President Donald Trump reversed course on June 22, ordering B-2 bombers to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with MOP “bunker-buster” bombs — weapons only the US possesses.

Although Trump declared that the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, it remains unclear whether Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was destroyed or relocated in time. If material and technical capacity remain, diplomacy may be the only path to prevent Iran from eventually building a nuclear weapon — a goal the regime could now prioritize more urgently.

Even with severe military losses and the effective loss of airspace control, Iran appears undeterred. Hostilities with Israel continue, and the possibility of Iranian retaliation against US targets is growing. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that the war will not end until Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is removed from power.

Israeli rescuers search through the rubble at the site of an overnight Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam on June 15, 2025. (AFP)

The US entry into the conflict has triggered a range of diplomatic responses — from enthusiastic support to fierce condemnation. Netanyahu praised Trump’s decision as a “courageous choice” that would “alter history.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, called it an “outrageous, grave and unprecedented violation” of international law, insisting Tehran reserves “all options” to defend its interests.

Iran’s ambassador to the UN demanded an emergency Security Council session and called the strikes “premeditated acts of aggression.”

Russia, a close ally of Iran, “strongly condemned” the US action. Its Foreign Ministry labeled the strikes a “gross violation of international law,” while Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, dismissed their impact and provocatively suggested some states might now help Iran obtain nuclear weapons.

China echoed the condemnation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the strikes “seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter,” and warned of regional destabilization.

FASTFACTS

  • China and Russia have condemned US strikes on Iran while the UN and Europe have appealed for deescalation.
  • Analysts say without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiraling into wider war.

Chinese Ambassador to the UN Fu Cong called on Israel to halt hostilities immediately and backed a UN resolution demanding an unconditional ceasefire. Chinese analysts have also warned that the conflict threatens global trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Other voices have called for diplomacy. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a “hazardous escalation,” stressing that “military solutions are not viable” and urging a return to negotiations.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — positioning himself as a bridge between the US and Europe — highlighted the danger of the war spreading beyond the region. While stopping short of endorsing the US strikes, he reiterated that Iran must not develop nuclear weapons and called for negotiations to stabilize the region.

European powers had previously been pressing for a deal requiring Iran to halt uranium enrichment, curb its missile program and stop supporting proxy groups. But Iran has rejected a full halt, claiming its enrichment is for peaceful purposes.

With Western diplomacy faltering, regional actors are stepping in. Most Arab states — including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf states — have condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran and are working to deescalate tensions.

Still, these efforts have so far achieved little. Strikes continue, ceasefire mechanisms remain absent and attempts to coordinate sanctions or arms embargoes have stalled.

A narrow diplomatic window may remain. Recent Geneva meetings involving Iranian, US, and European officials showed conditional openness to talks. But the latest US strikes have likely hardened positions.

A plume of heavy smoke and fire rise over an oil refinery in southern Tehran, after it was hit in an overnight Israeli strike, on June 15, 2025. (AFP)

Analysts say the only viable path forward begins with renewed diplomacy, ideally starting with a ceasefire. Yet fundamental disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and widespread distrust leave a comprehensive solution elusive.

Some fear that Israel, emboldened by US support, may escalate its military campaign to seek regime change in Tehran — a move that would risk greater instability across the Middle East, as the world has seen in the recent attack over Qatar. 

Others argue that Iran’s military retaliation is a necessary step before negotiations can resume. However, nobody seems to safely conclude just how far this retaliation will go. 

Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN that without such a response, Iran would lack both international leverage and domestic legitimacy to reenter talks.

Still, he later added: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future.”

With Iran and Israel entrenched and global powers divided, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear slim. Yet Katulis believes regional “swing states” — such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE — could help shift the dynamic.

“One of the biggest brakes on further escalation lies right in the heart of the Middle East itself,” he said. “The key ‘swing states’ like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could lead more regional collective efforts to avoid further escalation by working publicly and quietly with the main combatants to find pathways toward a diplomatic settlement.”

In geopolitical terms, these “swing states” balance relationships with Washington, Moscow and Beijing — and can influence outcomes through neutrality or engagement. Katulis believes Riyadh, in particular, could help change the calculus.

Right now, he said, Israel and Iran “have more incentives to engage in military action than they do to pursue diplomacy.” But “the key powers in the region like Saudi Arabia could do even more than they are already doing to change the calculus for Israel and Iran.”

Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s actions as violations of international law and warned that continued escalation threatens long-term regional stability. The Kingdom has urged the UN Security Council to take meaningful steps to prevent further deterioration and has refused to allow its airspace to be used in military operations — a clear signal of its neutrality and strategic caution.

Israeli first responders gather in front of a building destroyed by an Iranian strike in Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025. (AFP)

Looking ahead, the stakes remain dangerously high. Maksad has warned that unchecked escalation could have serious consequences.

“The last step in that escalatory ladder is to go after American bases, whether it is in the GCC, or perhaps even attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20 percent of global energy passes through,” he told CNN.

As the war drags on, the fragmented international response highlights the fragility of global diplomacy and the difficulty of conflict resolution in an increasingly multipolar world.

For Tehran, halting enrichment altogether would not only undermine decades of strategic investment but also damage regime legitimacy. As Maksad put it, Tehran’s “entire prestige rests on enrichment.”

Still, he sees a potential way forward: Focusing not on enrichment itself, but on preventing a weapon. “That,” he said, “opens up the possibility of a negotiated outcome.”