What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon

Analysis What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon
Israel has struck southern Lebanon in retaliation for cross-border attacks by Hezbollah. (AFP)
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Updated 13 August 2024
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What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon

What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon
  • Hurried departure of visitors and diplomats causes war jitters as Lebanese await Hezbollah retaliation for Israeli killing of commander
  • All-out war could wipe 25 percent of Lebanon’s already weak GDP and result in shortages of basic commodities, warns economist

BEIRUT: As Lebanon faces the increasing possibility of an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel, it also confronts a perfect storm of crises, ranging from the economic to the diplomatic.

The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite group has traded near-daily fire with the Israeli military in support of its ally Hamas since the Oct. 7 attack last year led by the Palestinian militant group on Israel triggered a military assault on the Gaza Strip.

In recent days, calls by Arab and Western governments and embassies for their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately have greatly heightened concerns. The German Foreign Ministry has expressed its alarm at the “false sense of security” among citizens, and warned of severe consequences if the confrontation escalates into a full-scale war.

The US Embassy in Beirut said on Friday that it “encourages those who wish to depart Lebanon to book any ticket available to them” while urging US citizens who choose not to depart Lebanon “to prepare contingency plans for emergencies and be prepared to shelter in place for an extended period.”




Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Hamam on August 9, 2024. (AFP)

The risk of the conflict expanding in the Middle East has also led to more airlines, including Air Algerie and Air India, suspending flights to Lebanon. Britain has advised its airlines “not to enter Lebanese airspace from Aug. 8 until Nov. 4,” citing “a potential risk to aviation from military activity.”

Fear of escalation in the wake of two killings at the end of last month attributed to Israel — Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut — has driven thousands of Lebanese expatriates to flee the country.

Many had arrived just weeks earlier to spend the summer with family, but now, urged by foreign embassies, they have hastily packed their bags, leaving behind a country on the brink.




Fire sweep over a car targeted by an Israeli strike in the southern city of Sidon on August 9, 2024. (AFP)

“This is Lebanon. Nothing has changed. We are used to it,” said one of the departing expatriates, reflecting the resigned attitude of someone who knew the risks of both staying back in the country and catching a flight out of Beirut.

The exodus of expatriates has struck a devastating blow to Lebanon’s economy. As the primary lifeline that sustains the nation, their departure spells disaster for small and medium enterprises, especially in the tourism sector. Jean Bayruti, secretary-general of the Federation of Tourism Unions in Lebanon, said: “If we sacrifice the tourism sector this year, we will have sacrificed Lebanon.”

Lebanon’s economy, already fragile and weakened by years of political instability, is now at greater risk. The World Bank had cautiously predicted a slight economic growth of 0.2 percent for 2023, supported by remittances and tourism. However, the situation has drastically changed.

The national currency has lost 95 percent of its value since the economy’s collapse in 2019, with more than 80 percent of the population now living below the poverty line.




In recent days, calls by Arab and Western governments and embassies for their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately have greatly heightened concerns. (AFP)

Jassem Ajaka, a Lebanese economist, warned that the low-intensity war in southern Lebanon is eroding the economy. “If the strikes expand, the situation will be more costly, as insurance rates and general prices will rise, and black-market traders will benefit,” he said, referring to operators in the underground economy.

He believes that losses in the Lebanese tourism industry could exceed $2 billion, compounded by disruptions in imports and banking transactions. In the event of an all-out war involving Israeli attacks on Lebanon’s creaky infrastructure, the damage could be catastrophic, Ajaka said.

“Gross domestic product losses could reach 24-25 percent, businesses and hospitals would be affected, and there could be shortages of basic commodities such as wheat and fuel.”

The cross-border violence since last October has killed at least 565 people in Lebanon, mostly combatants, but also at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

INNUMBERS

  • 95% Loss in Lebanese currency value since 2019 economic collapse.
  • 80%+ Population of Lebanon now living below the poverty line.
  • 565 People, including fighters, killed in Lebanon since October 2023.

On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures. Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced by fighting from both sides of the Blue Line — the demarcation line dividing Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights.

Lebanon is deeply divided in its response to the escalating tensions. While some believe that the country can avoid the worst of the conflict, others are already experiencing its harsh realities.

Entire towns in southern Lebanon have been wiped out by retaliatory Israeli military strikes, resulting in the displacement of tens of thousands of families.




A televised speech by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is transmitted on large screens as fighters and mourners attend the funeral ceremony of slain top commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs on August 1, 2024. (AFP)

On Friday, separate Israeli attacks killed two Hezbollah fighters in Naqoura and two Hamas members in Sidon, including the Palestinian group’s security official in the Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp. It was the first time that the town, 44 km from Beirut, had been targeted.

Israeli drones were seen flying over Lebanese villages along the border, using loudspeakers to broadcast messages in Arabic against Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In a televised address at Shukr’s funeral on Aug. 1, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah was “paying the price for its support for Gaza and the Palestinian people,” but also declared an “open battle on all fronts.”

The general consensus in Beirut is that Lebanese government officials have limited options for avoiding a catastrophe. “The most Lebanese officials can do is resort to lobbying diplomacy to prevent Israel from destroying Lebanon,” one analyst, speaking anonymously, told Arab News. “They are unable to influence the course of developments when it comes to Hezbollah and Israel.”




A man walks on an overpass beneath a giant billboard that reads “Enough, we are tired, Lebanon doesn’t want war” on a street in Beirut on August 7, 2024. (AFP)

The situation is vastly different from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, with fewer safe routes for those seeking to flee. Many Lebanese people now consider areas with Christian, Druze, or Sunni majorities as relatively safe, unlike the Shiite-majority regions that are closely associated with Hezbollah.

For many, the threat of war is an all-too-familiar reality. Mohammed Sabra, who lives in Beirut’s southern suburbs, did not try to hide his frustration.

“We are controlled, not chosen. Israel doesn’t need a pretext to attack Lebanon. All I can do is hope for things to stay under control, because I can’t run anywhere. I have five children and displacement will extract a high cost.”

Voicing his concerns, Bilal Ghandour, a jewelry shop owner in Beirut, said: “We are dealing with an enemy that has no red lines, and we saw what happened in the Gaza Strip. The impact of any future war will be severe in light of the economic crisis we are suffering from.”




The aftermath of an Israeli raid in the southern Lebanese village of Shama (Chamaa), on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

In recent weeks, Israeli jets have flown low over Beirut, often visible to the naked eye, and have frequently broken the sound barrier, causing the loudest sonic booms heard in years.

The sense of fear in the Lebanese capital is palpable, especially among residents of areas viewed as Hezbollah strongholds, notably Dahiyeh, a predominantly Shiite suburb in the south of Beirut.

Haret Hreik, in Dahiyeh, was where Shukr was killed in an airstrike by the Israeli military on July 30, in apparent retaliation for the deaths of 12 children in the predominantly Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the Golan Heights, in a missile strike blamed on Hezbollah.

During the 2006 war, Dahiyeh served as the headquarters of Hezbollah and was heavily targeted and damaged by the Israeli military. Dahiyeh doctrine, the Israeli military strategy involving the destruction of civilian infrastructure in order to pressure hostile regimes, is named after the neighborhood.

“Manal,” a university professor who lives in Dahiyeh, shared her apprehensions with Arab News on condition of anonymity. “There is a sense of fear for the family, and I have no plans A or B for displacement. All the bags of displacement are ready in front of the doors of the homes of Dahiyeh residents, even those who believe in the resistance,” she said.




A Lebanese couple run through the streets in front of a bombed bridge following an Israeli air strikes on the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh on 14 July 2006. (AFP)

Lebanon now faces a future filled with uncertainty. The economic crisis, combined with the potential for war, has left many feeling helpless. “Everyone is worried, everything is possible,” said Fatima Muhaimish, a resident of Beirut’s southern suburbs. “There is no psychological or physical ability to endure war and the horror it leaves behind.”

As the Lebanese people brace for what may come, they are left with more questions than answers. “Is there really a safe place in Lebanon if Israel launches a war on the country?” they ask. “What happens after this war, and will there be other wars?”

Social political analyst Maher Abi Nader attributes the widespread sense of denial to the psychological trauma endured by the Lebanese people in recent decades, most recently after the August 2020 Beirut port explosion.




Rescuers stand near a building with destroyed top floors following an Israeli military strike on Beirut’s southern suburb on July 30, 2024. (AFP)

“The West is ignorant of our reading of the war. The Lebanese citizen knows how to deal with acute crises. He prefers to live one day at a time to avoid fatal stress,” Abi Nader told Arab News.

In his speech at Shukr’s funeral, Nasrallah said that unnamed countries had asked Hezbollah to retaliate in an “acceptable” way — or not at all. But he said it would be “impossible” for his fighters not to respond. “There is no discussion on this point,” he said. “The only things lying between us and you are the days, the nights and the battlefield.”

With no clear path forward, Lebanon is once again on edge, waiting for what seems like a delayed but inevitable full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel.

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Egypt welcomes UN’s decision to establish position of special envoy on water

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi will assume the post of UN special envoy on water in November. (File/AFP)
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi will assume the post of UN special envoy on water in November. (File/AFP)
Updated 18 sec ago
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Egypt welcomes UN’s decision to establish position of special envoy on water

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi will assume the post of UN special envoy on water in November. (File/AFP)
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to assume post in November

CAIRO: Egypt has welcomed the decision of the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to establish the position of a UN special envoy on water, and the announcement that Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi will assume the high-ranking post in November.

In a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Cairo said Egypt, in collaboration with Germany, had led an extensive initiative in preparation for the 2023 UN Water Conference.

This initiative, which successfully garnered the support of 151 countries, aimed at establishing the position of UN special envoy on water to support member states, particularly water-scarce countries, to help address the challenge of achieving the sixth Sustainable Development Goal regarding everyone having access to water.

Guterres’ decision to create the position is a culmination of Egypt’s efforts to enhance multilateral action in response to emerging challenges.

Egypt looked forward to enhancing cooperation with the new UN special envoy to achieve the goals of the 2030 Agenda in addressing water scarcity, the statement added.

The news comes in light of the significant efforts made by Egypt for the rational management of water resources and the promotion of transboundary cooperation, in accordance with international law.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty received a phone call on Friday from the UN secretary-general. The call addressed the latest developments in the Gaza Strip and the dangerous escalation of conflict in the West Bank.

Tamim Khallaf, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the call emphasized the importance of an immediate ceasefire, the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, and facilitating the work of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.

Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s position, which focuses on halting aggression and promptly delivering humanitarian aid to the region. He said peace, security, and stability in the area could not be achieved without adhering to agreed-upon references and establishing a Palestinian state based on June 4, 1967, lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The UN secretary-general spoke of his appreciation of the roles of Egypt, Qatar, and the US in mediation efforts aimed at reaching a ceasefire agreement and exchanging hostages and detainees. He expressed hope in achieving agreement as soon as possible.


Stricken Red Sea tanker salvage makes ‘slow’ progress: Greek military

Stricken Red Sea tanker salvage makes ‘slow’ progress: Greek military
Updated 15 September 2024
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Stricken Red Sea tanker salvage makes ‘slow’ progress: Greek military

Stricken Red Sea tanker salvage makes ‘slow’ progress: Greek military
  • The operation is being overseen by the European Union’s Red Sea naval mission Aspides
  • Damage to the vessel had threatened a Red Sea oil spill four times the size of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska

ATHENS: The towing of an abandoned tanker struck by Yemen’s Houthis in August, threatening environmental disaster, is proceeding slowly for a second day, a Greek military source told AFP Sunday.
The operation to tow the Greek-flagged Sounion which began Saturday “is proceeding at a very slow pace,” the source said, adding that it was “initially headed north” without revealing a destination.
The tanker was hit on August 21 by Iran-backed Houthis with missiles off the coast of Hodeida while carrying 150,000 tons of crude oil.
After the initial strike, the Houthis returned and detonated charges on the ship’s deck, setting off new fires.
Damage to the vessel had threatened a Red Sea oil spill four times the size of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska.
The operation is being overseen by the European Union’s Red Sea naval mission, Aspides, which Sunday said the tanker was being towed to a “safe location.”
“The salvage of the MV SOUNION is a complex operation and consists of various phases,” the mission said on X, formerly Twitter.
It added aerial shots of the tanker escorted by two warships, one dated Sunday, in which it is still emitting smoke.
Greek state news agency ANA said the tugboat was escorted by three frigates, helicopters and a special forces team, without disclosing the states of origin.
Fires were still visible on board in Aspides pictures on X dated Saturday.
“When it reaches safe mooring there will be an attempt to put out the fire and preliminary steps will be taken to secure the cargo from leaking,” the Greek source said Sunday.
The ships’ radars have been turned off for security reasons.
The tanker had been anchored west of the militia-held port city of Hodeida, midway between Yemen and Eritrea.
The Sounion’s crew — made up of 23 Filipinos and two Russians — was rescued the day after the attack by a French frigate serving with the EU mission.
The EU naval force was formed in February to protect merchant vessels in the Red Sea from attacks by the Houthi militia, who have waged a campaign against international shipping that they say is intended to show solidarity with Hamas in its war with Israel in the Gaza Strip.
Since November, the Houthi attacks have caused the sinking of two ships and deaths of at least four crew members.
The Houthis have been firing drones and missiles at ships in the vital commercial route, saying they are targeting vessels linked to Israel, the US and Britain in solidarity with Palestinians over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.


Israeli leaflets tell south Lebanon residents to evacuate

Israeli leaflets tell south Lebanon residents to evacuate
Updated 15 September 2024
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Israeli leaflets tell south Lebanon residents to evacuate

Israeli leaflets tell south Lebanon residents to evacuate
  • It was the first time Israelis had told residents of south Lebanon to evacuate in 11 months
  • The leaflet read in Arabic: “Anyone present in this area after this time will be considered a terrorist.”

BEIRUT: Israel dropped leaflets over a Lebanon border village Sunday urging residents to leave, state-run media said, but Israel’s military told AFP a brigade had taken the initiative without approval.
It was the first time Israelis had told residents of south Lebanon to evacuate in 11 months of cross-border fire between Hezbollah and Israel over the Gaza war, triggered by Hezbollah ally Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel.
“The Israeli enemy dropped leaflets over Wazzani calling on those in the area and its surroundings to evacuate,” the official National News Agency said, referring to a southern border village.
Wazzani mayor Ahmed Al-Mohammed shared with AFP a picture of the leaflets that showed a map of the region with the areas marked for evacuation marked in red.
The leaflet read in Arabic: “To all residents and refugees living in the area of the camps, Hezbollah is firing from your region. You must immediately leave your homes and head north of the Khiam region before 04:00 p.m. (1300 GMT). Do not return to this area until the end of the war.”
It added: “Anyone present in this area after this time will be considered a terrorist.”
Wazzani is an agricultural region where Syrians are often hired to work the land.
Asked about the incident, an Israeli military spokeswoman said the leaflets had been dropped by drone in an area from which rockets had been fired into northern Israel.
“This was an initiative of the 769 Brigade, it was not approved by the Northern Command. An investigation has been opened,” she added.
In the Gaza Strip, Israeli aircraft regularly drop leaflets urging residents to evacuate before an attack.
On Saturday, Hezbollah’s second-in-command Naim Qassem warned that an all-out war by Israel aimed at returning 100,000 displaced people to their homes in areas near the Lebanon border would displace “hundreds of thousands” more Israelis.
The cross-border violence since early October has killed 623 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including at least 141 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, authorities have announced the deaths of at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians.


Leading Lebanese novelist Elias Khoury dies at 76

Leading Lebanese novelist Elias Khoury dies at 76
Updated 15 September 2024
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Leading Lebanese novelist Elias Khoury dies at 76

Leading Lebanese novelist Elias Khoury dies at 76
  • Khoury, a leading voice of Arab literature, had been ill for months and admitted and discharged from hospital several times over the past year
  • Khoury had been known for his political stances from his support of Palestinians to his harsh criticism of Israel

BEIRUT: Lebanese novelist Elias Khoury who dedicated much of his writings to the Palestinian cause and taught at universities around the world, making him one of Lebanon’s most prominent intellectuals, has died. He was 76.
Khoury, a leading voice of Arab literature, had been ill for months and admitted and discharged from hospital several times over the past year until his death early Sunday, Al-Quds Al-Arabi daily that he worked for said.
In addition to his novels, Khoury wrote articles in different Arab media outlets over the past five decades making him well known throughout the Arab world.
Two days after the Israel-Hamas war broke out on Oct. 7, Khoury wrote an article in Al-Quds A-Arab daily titled “It’s Palestine.” Khoury wrote then that “the biggest open-air prison, the besieged Ghetto of Gaza, has launched a war against Israel, occupied settlements and forced settlers to flee.”
Born in Beirut on July 12, 1948, Khoury had been known for his political stances from his support of Palestinians to his harsh criticism of Israel and what he called its “brutal” settling policy in Palestinian territories. He studied at the Lebanese University and later at the University of Paris, where he received a PhD in social history.
“The Catastrophe began in 1948 and it is still going on,” he once wrote referring to Israel’s settlement policies in occupied Palestinian territories. The “nakba,” or “catastrophe” is a term used by many Arabs to describe the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians when Israel was created in 1948.
Khoury was an outspoken supporter of Arab uprisings that broke out in the region starting in 2011 and toppled several governments.
“The question is not why the Arab revolts broke out,” Khoury wrote after uprisings that toppled long-serving leaders such as Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. “The question is not how people tore down the wall of fear but how fear built Arab kingdoms of silence for five decades.”
Khoury, who belonged to a Greek Orthodox Christian family, took part in Lebanon’s 1975-90 civil war and was wounded in one of the battles.
From 1992 until 2009, Khoury was the editor of the cultural section of Lebanon’s leading An-Nahar newspaper. Until his death, he was the editor-in-chief of the Palestine Studies magazine, a bulletin issued by the Beirut-based Institute for Palestine Studies.
His first novel was published in 1975, but his second, Little Mountain, which he released in 1977 and was about Lebanon’s devastating civil war was very successful.
Bab Al-Shams, or Gate of the Sun, released in 2000, was about Palestinian refugees in Lebanon since 1948. A movie about the novel was made in Egypt.
His novels were translated to several languages including Hebrew.
Khoury also taught at different universities including New York University, Columbia, Princeton and Houston, as well as the University of London.


Jordan King Abdullah II accepts cabinet resignation

Jordan King Abdullah II accepts cabinet resignation
Updated 15 September 2024
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Jordan King Abdullah II accepts cabinet resignation

Jordan King Abdullah II accepts cabinet resignation
  • The Jordanian King appointed Jaafar Hassan as prime minister
  • Outgoing government will stay in a caretaker capacity until the formation of a new cabinet

DUBAI: Jordan's King Abdullah II on Sunday accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh's government, ordering it to stay in a caretaker capacity until the formation of a new cabinet, the Royal Hashemite Court said on Sunday.

The Jordanian King has appointed Jaafar Hassan as prime minister. 

Hassan, a widely respected technocrat, was Jordan's former planning minster. He recieved his education at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He is also the head of King Abdullah's office. 

He will replace veteran diplomat and former palace advisor Al-Khasawneh, who is considered the longest-serving prime minister during King Abdullah II's reign.

Khasawneh, 55, had headed the government since October 2020.

He submitted his resignation on Sunday to King Abdullah II after parliamentary elections saw some gains for the Islamist opposition.

The country's leading Islamist party, the Islamic Action Front, came out top in Tuesday's poll, winning 31 out of the 138 seats in parliament.
The IAF is a political offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, and the result gives the Islamists their largest representation since 1989.

The cabinet usually quits after a parliamentary election in line with a constitutional custom. 
Jordan's parliament is bicameral. In addition to the elected parliament there is also a senate with 69 members appointed by the monarch.