Frankly Speaking: Does the Arab American vote matter?

Special Frankly Speaking: Does the Arab American vote matter?
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Updated 22 October 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Does the Arab American vote matter?

Frankly Speaking: Does the Arab American vote matter?

DUBAI: As the US presidential election looms, a YouGov poll commissioned by Arab News has revealed a near-even split between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab American voters. This result may surprise some, but according to a prominent Arab American analyst of Middle East affairs, it reflects the general sentiment among the US public, where key constituencies in swing states will determine the next occupant of the White House.

“Clearly, we see that the Arab American public generally reflects the same trend here as the American public because so many of these Arab Americans are not newly naturalized,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said on the Arab News weekly current affairs show “Frankly Speaking.”

The YouGov survey results suggest that the Israeli war in Gaza and other events in the Middle East weigh strongly on the mind of the average Arab American voter. “But at the end of the day, it’s American Arab rather than Arab American,” Maksad said. “They have to vote based on bread-and-butter issues, the well-being of their families, the issues that impact them at home, rather than have an impact overseas. That’s not surprising.

“They are second, third, fourth-generation Arab Americans. Some of them came here in the mid-1800s. And so, they very much reflect the general sentiment in the American population.”

He added: “When asked point-blank about the significance of Gaza, most Arab Americans rank it as the top issue. However, that doesn’t seem to reflect in their overall choice. You would expect that not so many of them would be voting for President Trump, who was so clearly pro-Israel, who moved the American Embassy to Jerusalem and allowed Israel to annex the occupied Golan Heights,” Maksad said.

“There might be some tension between what Arab Americans say when asked what they think about Palestine, and the fact that they are also Americans who have their livelihood to worry about, the economy being chief among them, but also things like immigration. For so many women, also issues relating to their reproductive rights and abortion.”

Historically, the Arab vote has had little impact on the results of US elections. But is that still the case or has something changed? “That’s not the case,” Maksad said, “because of where they (Arab American voters) are, where that constituency is. States like Michigan that are going to be crucial, but even in Georgia, a significant population. Close to where I am in Washington, D.C. is Virginia, and there is a significant Arab population there in northern Virginia,” he said.

Read our full coverage here: US Elections 2024: What Arab Americans want

Indeed, elections that hinge on narrow margins make smaller constituencies like Arab Americans vital to either party’s success. Their impact in key states is magnified when considering the razor-thin victories in recent elections. The race in many states is so tight that “the margin is 0.5 percent one way or the other,” Maksad told Katie Jensen, host of “Frankly Speaking.”

He added: “So, that makes the Arab American vote a crucial one, a crucial constituency to win. We see that reflected in the positions of the various campaigns and the efforts to cater to, and to win over, that segment of the population.”




Firas Maksad unpacked the YouGov survey findings with ‘Frankly Speaking’ host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

Maksad added that the “willingness and excitement” of Arab Americans to vote, “far exceeding” that of the general population, is a “sign of health that the Arab American community is engaged in the democratic process here in the US, particularly when there are concerns about discrimination and racism.”

Some 40 percent of Arab Americans who were surveyed by YouGov considered themselves Democrats while 28 percent were Republicans. Yet a slim majority was going to vote for Trump.

“The question has been out there as to whether some of this is a protest vote against the Biden-Harris ticket or team for their inability or lack of a political will to rein in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” Maksad said.

“But, again, what’s sort of puzzling about this is that if this is a protest vote, you wouldn’t necessarily vote for Trump because he is even more pro-Israeli for all the reasons that we’ve already discussed. You would go through a third party candidate like the Greens. So, I don’t know how much of that can be prescribed to what has unfolded in the Middle East.”

Maksad said that factors such as immigration and the economy need to be taken into account, too. “Immigration seemed to very interestingly rank very high on the minds of Arab Americans, which honestly, as an immigrant myself, I was not completely surprised by because those who immigrated here legally and went through the process, and paid the taxes, tend to feel pretty strongly about those who are cutting in line and not paying their fair share,” he said.

“So, illegal immigration here, which often plays in favor of Trump rather than Harris, could also be a factor.”

Looking ahead, Maksad said that a snapshot look at the latest US opinion polls suggested that the Trump campaign is gaining momentum. So, what would a Trump win mean for the Middle East?

“The sense, whether rightfully or wrongfully, is that President Trump is a much more forceful figure, particularly when it comes to the Middle East. Everybody here recalls the Abraham Accords (between Israel and several Arab countries), which many did not think were possible,” he said.

“There’s that sense then, this promise that President Trump has kept repeating that he will end those wars, whether it’s the war in Ukraine or the war in Gaza. We will have to see whether he will make good on that promise.

“Whether he will be able to bring Netanyahu to heel on issues that the US wants to … is an open question.”


Putin signs off record Russian defense spending

Putin signs off record Russian defense spending
Updated 57 min 46 sec ago
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Putin signs off record Russian defense spending

Putin signs off record Russian defense spending
  • Around 32.5% of the budget has been allocated for national defense
  • Lawmakers had already approved the plans in the past 10 days

KYIV: Russian President Vladimir Putin approved budget plans, raising 2025 military spending to record levels as Moscow seeks to prevail in the war in Ukraine.
Around 32.5 percent of the budget posted on a government website Sunday has been allocated for national defense, amounting to 13.5 trillion rubles (over $145 billion), up from a reported 28.3 percent this year.
Lawmakers in both houses of the Russian parliament, the State Duma and Federation Council had already approved the plans in the past 10 days.
Russia’s war on Ukraine, which started in Feb. 2022, is Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II and has drained the resources of both sides.
Kyiv has been getting billions of dollars in help from its Western allies, but Russia’s forces are bigger and better equipped, and in recent months the Russian army has gradually been pushing Ukrainian troops backward in eastern areas.
On the ground in Ukraine, three people died in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson when a Russian drone struck a minibus on Sunday morning, Kherson regional Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin said. Seven others were wounded in the attack.
Meanwhile, the number of wounded in Saturday’s missile strike in Dnipro in central Ukraine rose to 24, with seven in serious condition, Dnipropetrovsk regional Gov. Serhiy Lysak said. Four people were killed in the attack.
Moscow sent 78 drones into Ukraine overnight into Sunday, Ukrainian officials said. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, 32 drones were destroyed during the overnight attacks. A further 45 drones were “lost” over various areas, likely having been electronically jammed.
In Russia, a child was killed in a Ukrainian drone attack in the Bryansk region bordering Ukraine, according to regional Gov. Alexander Bogomaz.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said that 29 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight into Sunday in four regions of western Russia: 20 over the Bryansk region, seven over the Kaluga region, and one each over the Smolensk and Kursk regions.


Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats

Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats
Updated 01 December 2024
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Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats

Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats
  • Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra questioned claims that the fishing boats had intruded into Myanmar’s territorial waters
  • Thailand seeking more details on the incident and a quick release of four Thai nationals who were among the 31 fishermen detained

BANGKOK: Thailand protested an incident involving Myanmar’s navy firing on Thai fishing vessels, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Sunday, after one fisherman drowned, two were injured and dozens were detained from one of the boats.
Shinawatra questioned claims that the fishing boats had intruded into Myanmar’s territorial waters when Myanmar’s navy opened fire on the vessels on Saturday.
The Thai defense ministry earlier said two of 15 Thai fishing vessels were fired on when they were 4-5.7 nautical miles (7.4-10.6 km) inside Myanmar’s territorial waters near the southern Thai province of Ranong.
“It is inconclusive,” Shinawatra said, when asked by reporters whether Thai fishing boats encroached on Myanmar’s territorial waters.
“We don’t support violence whatever the circumstances,” she said, adding that Thailand was seeking more details on the incident and a quick release of four Thai nationals who were among the 31 fishermen detained.
Myanmar’s ruling junta did not immediately respond to a telephone request for comment.
Thai Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said a letter protesting the use of force was sent to Myanmar through a local border mechanism, demanding clear details about what happened and a quick return of the Thai boat and crew detained.
Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa also issued a letter of concern over the incident to the Myanmar government and summoned the Myanmar ambassador for a meeting on Monday, seeking clarification about what happened and a quick release of the four Thai nationals.
Myanmar has been in crisis since 2021 when the military seized power, toppling an elected government and sparking an armed rebellion by crushing protests with lethal force.


Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban

Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban
Updated 01 December 2024
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Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban

Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban
  • The European Union Aviation Safety Agency suspended PIA’s authorization to operate in the EU in June 2020
  • Once PIA gets approval for UK flights, London, Manchester, and Birmingham would be the most sought-after destinations

KARACHI: Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) said on Sunday it expects to resume European routes soon and is eyeing several UK destinations after the EU aviation regulator lifted its bar on the flag carrier.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) suspended PIA’s authorization to operate in the EU in June 2020 over concerns about the ability of Pakistani authorities and its Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) to ensure compliance with international aviation standards.
“PIA plans to approach the UK’s Department for Transport (DfT) for UK route resumption, as EASA clearance is a prerequisite for their decision,” PIA spokesman Abdullah Hafeez Khan told Reuters.
EASA and UK authorities suspended permission for PIA to operate in the region after Pakistan began investigating the validity of pilots’ licenses following a deadly plane crash that killed 97 people.
Khan said the airline expects to resume flights to Europe, starting with Paris, within the next three to four weeks.
Once PIA gets approval for UK flights, Khan said London, Manchester, and Birmingham would be the most sought-after destinations.
PIA and the government, which is aiming to sell a 60 percent stake in the carrier, had urged EASA to lift the ban, even provisionally. The ban cost the airline 40 billion rupees ($144 million) annually in revenue.
Khan said the company has sufficient cash flow to add new routes. Decisions on leasing new aircraft will be made after the government finalizes privatization discussions, he said.
The loss-making national carrier has a 23 percent stake in Pakistan’s domestic aviation market, but its 34-plane fleet can’t compete with Middle Eastern carriers which hold a 60 percent market share, due to a lack of direct flights, despite having agreements with 87 countries and key landing slots.
The government’s attempt to privatize the airline fell flat when it received only a single offer, well below its asking price.
“With Europe now, and upcoming UK routes, we anticipate increased revenue potential and hence a rise in PIA’s value during the privatization process,” Khan said.


New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate

New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate
Updated 01 December 2024
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New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate

New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate
  • The European Union’s new leadership team is keen to demonstrate it remains firm on backing Kyiv at a perilous moment for Ukraine
  • Questions are swirling around the future of US support once Donald Trump assumes office in January

Kyiv: The EU’s new top diplomat Kaja Kallas and head of the European Council Antonio Costa arrived in Kyiv Sunday in a symbolic show of support for Ukraine on their first day in office.
“We came to give a clear message that we stand with Ukraine, and we continue to give our full support,” Costa told media outlets including AFP accompanying them on the trip.
The European Union’s new leadership team is keen to demonstrate it remains firm on backing Kyiv at a perilous moment for Ukraine nearly three years into its fight against Russia’s all-out invasion.
Questions are swirling around the future of US support once Donald Trump assumes office in January and there are fears he could force Kyiv to make painful concessions in pursuit of a quick peace deal.
Meanwhile, tensions have escalated as Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to strike government buildings in Kyiv with his new Oreshnik missile after firing it at Ukraine for the first time last month.
The Kremlin leader said the move is a response to Kyiv getting the green light to strike inside Russia with American and British missiles, and he has threatened to hit back against the countries supplying the weaponry.
As winter begins Russia has also unleashed devastating barrages against Ukraine’s power grid and on the frontline Kyiv’s fatigued forces are losing ground to Moscow’s grinding offensive.
“The situation in Ukraine is very, very grave,” Kallas, a former prime minister of Estonia, said. “But it’s clear that it comes at a very high cost for Russia as well.”
Ceasefire?
The new EU leaders — the bloc’s top officials along with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen — were set to hold talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky on Friday appeared to begin staking out his position ahead of any potential peace talks.
He called on NATO to offer guaranteed protections to parts of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv in order to “stop the hot stage of the war,” and implied he would then be willing to wait to regain other territory seized by Russia.
“If we speak ceasefire, (we need) guarantees that Putin will not come back,” Zelensky told Britain’s Sky News.
Kallas said that “the strongest security guarantee is NATO membership.”
“We need to definitely discuss this — if Ukraine decides to draw the line somewhere then how can we secure peace so that Putin doesn’t go any further,” she said.
Diplomats at NATO say there appears little prospect of the alliance granting Ukraine membership soon given opposition from a raft of members cautious of getting dragged into war with Russia.
Kallas said the EU “shouldn’t really rule out anything” in terms of the question of sending European troops to help enforce any ceasefire.
“We should have this strategic ambiguity around this,” she said.
’Transactional language’
Trump has cast doubt on continuing Washington’s vast aid for Ukraine and called on EU countries to do more.
Europe together has spent around $125 billion on supporting Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, while the United States alone has coughed up over $90 billion, according to a tracker from the Kiel Institute.
Kallas said the EU would use a “transactional language” to try to convince Trump that backing Kyiv was in the interest of the US.
“Aid for Ukraine is not charity,” she said. “A victory for Russia definitely emboldens China, Iran, North Korea.”
The new EU foreign policy chief said the bloc would continue seeking to put Ukraine in the “strongest” position — if and when Kyiv chose it was time to negotiate with Moscow.
But she conceded that it was becoming “increasingly difficult” for the 27-nation bloc to agree on new ways to ramp up support for Ukraine.
“This war has been going on for quite some time and it is harder and harder to explain it to our own people,” she said. “But I don’t see any option.”


Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike

Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike
Updated 01 December 2024
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Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike

Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike
  • Russia has regularly sent missiles and drones at Ukrainian settlements far beyond the front line

KYIV: Russia launched attack drones at Kyiv in its latest overnight air strike on the Ukrainian capital, city officials said on Sunday.
Air defenses destroyed around a dozen drones over the city, according to military administrator Serhiy Popko. No injuries were reported after debris fell on one city district, he said.
Reuters correspondents heard explosions above the city later in the morning during the second air-raid alert of the day.
Russia has regularly sent missiles and drones at Ukrainian settlements far beyond the front line of its nearly three-year-old invasion, targeting the energy grid in particular as winter sets in.