Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 08 December 2024
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Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
  • Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly”
  • As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary”

PARIS: More than 13 years since Bashar Assad’s security forces opened fire on protesters demanding democratic reforms, the Syrian president’s grip on power may finally be weakening.
The 59-year-old son and heir of late dictator Hafez Assad has faced several setbacks during the long civil war triggered by his brutal crackdown in March 2011, but has so far managed to cling on to power.
Now, with his Lebanese ally Hezbollah reeling from an Israeli onslaught and his great power backer Russia distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, Assad is running short of friends on the battlefield.
Key cities in the north, including Aleppo and Hama have fallen to opposition fighters in just a matter of days.
And on Saturday the militants said they are now encircling the capital where Assad has ruled since the death of his father in 2000.
Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has welcomed the militant advance; Israel is reinforcing its forces in the occupied Golan; and Syria’s southern neighbor Jordan is organizing an evacuation of its citizens.
In a further sign of Assad’s isolation, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group, which controls much of northeast Syria, said it was ready to speak to its foes among the Turkish-backed militants.
But international observers have repeatedly predicted the isolated former ophthalmologist’s fall since the earliest months of the uprising, and they have repeatedly been incorrect.
The 2011 protests against Assad’s rule began after a teenager was arrested for allegedly scrawling anti-government graffiti in the southern town of Daraa.

Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly.”
The militant advance has been stunning.
After Aleppo and Hama fell in quick succession, the militants and government forces were clashing Saturday near the major city of Homs.
Its capture would effectively cut Assad’s capital off from his support base in the Alawite minority community in the coastal highlands.
“The Alawite minority has lost faith in Assad,” Landis said. “There are serious questions about whether the Syrian army has any fight left.”
But some caution is merited. After all, haven’t world leaders underestimated Assad before?
As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary.”
In October 2012, during a re-election campaign debate, US president Barack Obama also warned Assad that his “days are numbered.”
The next month, Nabil Elaraby, then the head of the Arab League, declared “everyone knows that the government in Syria will not remain for long.”
The Syrian strongman defied them all, even as international lawyers drew up arrest warrants for war crimes and rights groups denounced Syria’s use of chemical weapons and aerial bombardment in civilian areas.
As the civil war spiralled into overlapping regional conflicts — government versus militants, Turkiye versus Kurdish fighters, US-backed militias against Daesh group jihadists — Assad retained his grip.
At first he was ostracized by many fellow Arab leaders, leaning instead on Iranian and Russian support, but as it became clear he was not leaving the stage diplomatic ties quietly resumed.

And meanwhile, Russia and Iran had Assad’s back. Lebanon’s pro-Iran Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters, backed by Iranian advisers, to bolster Syrian government forces. Russia carried out air strikes.
But the speed of this week’s militant victories seems to suggest that without his powerful foreign friends, Assad’s Syrian army is a hollow shell.
Russia has such little confidence in its ally that its embassy has acknowledged a “difficult military and political situation.”
Before the recent ceasefire in its conflict with Israel, Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters and weapons and its long-standing chief Hassan Nasrallah.
It appears to be in no position to help, despite a Hezbollah source saying Saturday it had sent 2,000 fighters into Syria’s Qusayr area “to defend its positions.”
“The Assad government is in its most precarious position since the summer of 2012,” Nick Heras, an analyst at the New Lines Institute, told AFP.
“There is a real risk that the Assad government could lose power in Damascus, either through battles or through a negotiated retreat.
“Ultimately, the Assad government’s ability to survive will depend on the extent to which Iran and Russia see Assad as useful to their strategies in the region.”
Heras said that Russia, which has a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, would be loath to withdraw its military personnel and assets from the country, and Iran would be similarly reluctant to abandon Assad.
“If either or both of those allies decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered,” Heras said.
The winners would be Assad’s main regional opponents: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkiye’s Erdogan, who both faced periods of intense domestic criticism only to emerge victorious in war.
Turkiye-backed militants are now spearheading the opposition advance on Homs, and Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria have effectively neutralized Assad’s most potent backer.

 


Israeli fire wounds five in south Lebanon as residents try to return, Lebanese media reports

Israeli fire wounds five in south Lebanon as residents try to return, Lebanese media reports
Updated 12 sec ago
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Israeli fire wounds five in south Lebanon as residents try to return, Lebanese media reports

Israeli fire wounds five in south Lebanon as residents try to return, Lebanese media reports
  • Israel said on Friday it intended to keep troops on the ground beyond the Sunday deadline
  • Kfar Kila is one of dozens of border villages where residents are forbidden from returning
BEIRUT: Israeli fire wounded five people in south Lebanon on Sunday, Lebanese media and security sources said, as residents sought to return to homes in the border area where Israeli forces remained on the ground after a deadline for their withdrawal passed.
Israel said on Friday it intended to keep troops on the ground beyond the Sunday deadline stipulated in the US-brokered ceasefire that halted last year’s war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Israel did not say how long its forces would remain.
The deal stipulated that Israeli forces should withdraw from south Lebanon as Hezbollah’s weapons and fighters were removed from the area and the Lebanese army deployed, within in a 60-day period which ended on Sunday morning.
Israel has said the terms had not been fully enforced by the Lebanese state, while Lebanon’s US-backed military on Saturday accused Israel of procrastinating in its withdrawal.
Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that Israeli forces opened fire on residents of the village of Kfar Kila after they crossed a barricade put up by Israeli forces, wounding five.
The Israeli military said it was looking into the report.
Kfar Kila is one of dozens of border villages that the Israeli military has said residents are forbidden from returning to until further notice.

WHO chief urges end to attacks on Sudan health care after 70 killed in drone strike

WHO chief urges end to attacks on Sudan health care after 70 killed in drone strike
Updated 26 January 2025
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WHO chief urges end to attacks on Sudan health care after 70 killed in drone strike

WHO chief urges end to attacks on Sudan health care after 70 killed in drone strike
  • WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: ‘We continue to call for a cessation of all attacks on health care in Sudan’

The head of the World Health Organization called on Saturday for an end to attacks on health care workers and facilities in Sudan after a drone attack on a hospital in Sudan’s North Darfur region killed more than 70 people and wounded dozens.
“As the only functional hospital in El Fasher, the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital provides services which include gyn-obstetrics, internal medicine, surgery and pediatrics, along with a nutrition stabilization center,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus posted on X after the Friday strike.
“We continue to call for a cessation of all attacks on health care in Sudan, and to allow full access for the swift restoration of the facilities that have been damaged,” Tedros said.
The war between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which broke out in April 2023 due to disputes over the integration of the two forces, has killed tens of thousands, driven millions from their homes and plunged half of the population into hunger.
The conflict has produced waves of ethnically driven violence blamed largely on the RSF, creating a humanitarian crisis.
Darfur Governor Mini Minnawi said on X that an RSF drone had struck the emergency department of the hospital in the capital of North Darfur, killing patients, including women and children.
Fierce clashes have erupted in El Fasher between the RSF and the Sudanese joint forces, including the army, armed resistance groups, police, and local defense units.


Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says

Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says
Updated 26 January 2025
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Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says

Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says
  • UN says out of 40,717 Palestinian bodies identified so far, roughly a third or 13,319  were children
  • Nearly 19,000 children were hospitalized for acute malnutrition in four months before December 2025

UNITED NATIONS: The war in Gaza has been devastating for children: More than 13,000 have been killed, an estimated 25,000 injured, and at least 25,000 hospitalized for malnutrition, according to UN agencies.
As Britain’s deputy UN ambassador, James Kariuki, recently told the Security Council, “Gaza has become the deadliest place in the world to be a child.”
“The children of Gaza did not choose this war,” he said, “yet they have paid the ultimate price.”
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported Thursday that of the 40,717 Palestinian bodies identified so far in Gaza, one-third – 13,319 – were children. The office said Friday the figures came from Gaza’s Ministry of Health.

The bodies of three children killed by an Israeli strike are carried for burial in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 21, 2024. (AP)

The UN children’s agency, UNICEF, said the estimate of 25,000 children injured came from its analysis based on information collected together with Gaza’s Health Ministry.
UN deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said nearly 19,000 children had been hospitalized for acute malnutrition in the four months before December.
That figure also came from UNICEF, which said it was from data collected by UN staff in Gaza focusing on nutrition, in coordination with all pertinent UN agencies.

The UN says thousands of children have also been orphaned or separated from their parents during the 15-month war.
Yasmine Sherif, executive director of the UN global fund Education Cannot Wait, told a press conference that 650,000 school-age children haven’t been attending classes and the entire education system has to be rebuilt because of the widespread destruction in Gaza.

Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)

Diplomats from Britain, France and other countries also cited the toll on Israeli children who were killed, injured and abducted during Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 – with some still being held hostage.
Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon asked the Security Council whether it ever paused to consider the plight of Israeli children “mutilated, tortured and murdered” on Oct. 7, the 30 who were kidnapped and the tens of thousands who have been displaced, their homes destroyed.
“The trauma they have endured is beyond imagination,” he said.
Danon called Thursday’s council meeting on children in Gaza “an affront to common sense,” accusing Hamas of turning Gaza into “the world’s largest terror base” and using children as human shields.
“The children of Gaza could have had a future filled with opportunity,” he said. “Instead, they are trapped in a cycle of violence and despair, all because of Hamas, not because of Israel.”

 

 


Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says

Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
Updated 26 January 2025
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Devastating toll for Gaza’s children: Over 13,000 killed and an estimated 25,000 injured, UN says

Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)
  • The UN says thousands of children have also been orphaned or separated from their parents during the 15-month war

UNITED NATIONS: The war in Gaza has been devastating for children: More than 13,000 have been killed, an estimated 25,000 injured, and at least 25,000 hospitalized for malnutrition, according to UN agencies.
As Britain’s deputy UN ambassador, James Kariuki, recently told the Security Council, “Gaza has become the deadliest place in the world to be a child.”
“The children of Gaza did not choose this war,” he said, “yet they have paid the ultimate price.”
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported Thursday that of the 40,717 Palestinian bodies identified so far in Gaza, one-third – 13,319 – were children. The office said Friday the figures came from Gaza’s Ministry of Health.

The bodies of three children killed by an Israeli strike are carried for burial in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 21, 2024. (AP)

The UN children’s agency, UNICEF, said the estimate of 25,000 children injured came from its analysis based on information collected together with Gaza’s Health Ministry.
UN deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said nearly 19,000 children had been hospitalized for acute malnutrition in the four months before December.
That figure also came from UNICEF, which said it was from data collected by UN staff in Gaza focusing on nutrition, in coordination with all pertinent UN agencies.

The UN says thousands of children have also been orphaned or separated from their parents during the 15-month war.
Yasmine Sherif, executive director of the UN global fund Education Cannot Wait, told a press conference that 650,000 school-age children haven’t been attending classes and the entire education system has to be rebuilt because of the widespread destruction in Gaza.

Palestinian children queue at a food distribution kitchen in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Thursday Nov. 28, 2024. (AP)

Diplomats from Britain, France and other countries also cited the toll on Israeli children who were killed, injured and abducted during Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 – with some still being held hostage.
Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon asked the Security Council whether it ever paused to consider the plight of Israeli children “mutilated, tortured and murdered” on Oct. 7, the 30 who were kidnapped and the tens of thousands who have been displaced, their homes destroyed.
“The trauma they have endured is beyond imagination,” he said.
Danon called Thursday’s council meeting on children in Gaza “an affront to common sense,” accusing Hamas of turning Gaza into “the world’s largest terror base” and using children as human shields.
“The children of Gaza could have had a future filled with opportunity,” he said. “Instead, they are trapped in a cycle of violence and despair, all because of Hamas, not because of Israel.”

 

 


US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues

US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues
Updated 26 January 2025
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US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues

US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues
  • Both Republican Trump and Democratic former President Joe Biden have been strong backers of Washington’s ally Israel

WASHINGTON: The US government said on Saturday it was “critical” that implementation of the Gaza ceasefire continues, after four Israeli soldiers were freed by Palestinian Hamas militants in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners.

KEY QUOTES
“It is critical that the ceasefire implementation continues and that all of the hostages are freed from Hamas captivity and safely returned to their families,” the US State Department said in a statement on Saturday.
Statements by the State Department and the White House welcomed the release of Israeli hostages and did not mention the Palestinian prisoners freed by Israel.
“The United States celebrates the release of the four Israeli hostages held in captivity for 477 days,” the State Department added.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
The week-old ceasefire in Gaza began last weekend just before US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20. Both Republican Trump and Democratic former President Joe Biden have been strong backers of Washington’s ally Israel.
Trump has credited his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for the ceasefire deal reached after months of talks mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar. Before his inauguration, Trump warned there would be “hell to pay” if hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were not released.

CONTEXT
Hamas took around 250 hostages during an Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel in which about 1,200 people were killed, according to Israeli tallies. It sparked the latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israel’s subsequent military assault on Gaza has killed over 47,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry, and led to accusations of genocide and war crimes that Israel denies. It also displaced nearly Gaza’s entire population and caused a hunger crisis.