Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh

Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh
Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 9:23 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 06 May 2025
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Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh

Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh

SINGAPORE: Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 9:23 a.m. Saudi time, the first time gain after six consecutive declines, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.11 to $58.24 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

“Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. “Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid US tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement.”

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10 percent in six straight sessions and dipped over 20 percent since April when US President Donald Trump’s tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

“China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector’s growth in the US, the world’s major oil consumer, as orders increased.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index  increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The US Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing “a rocky road ahead for fundamentals” amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+’s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July. 


Oil Updates — prices fall more than 1% on OPEC+ output hike discussion

Oil Updates — prices fall more than 1% on OPEC+ output hike discussion
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Oil Updates — prices fall more than 1% on OPEC+ output hike discussion

Oil Updates — prices fall more than 1% on OPEC+ output hike discussion

SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday following a report that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July, stoking concerns any potential increase in global supply would exceed demand growth.

Brent futures fell $1.05, or 1.62 percent, to $63.86 a barrel by 9:51 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 97 cents, or 1.58 percent, to $60.60.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are discussing whether to make another large output increase for a third month in July at their meeting on June 1, Bloomberg News reported.

An output hike of 411,000 barrels a day for July is among the options under discussion, although no final agreement has yet been reached, the report said, citing delegates.

OPEC+ has been in the process of unwinding its output cuts with additions to the market in May and June and Reuters has previously reported that the group may bring back as much as 2.2 million bpd by November.

Analysts have been anticipating the move and in a note on Wednesday, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said a 411,000 bpd increase from July is the “most likely outcome” from the meeting, primarily from Saudi Arabia.

“A key question will be whether the voluntary cut will be fully drawn down before the leaves turn brown in many parts of the world in line with the original taper schedule,” she said.

Prices were already lower in the session after Energy Information Administration data released on Wednesday showed US crude and fuel inventories posted surprise stock builds last week as crude imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand slipped.

Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ended May 16, the EIA said. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 1.3 million-barrel drawdown.

“The EIA’s reported surprise stock builds will have a downward pressure particularly on WTI,” said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research. He added this could further incentivise more US exports to Europe and Asia. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index ends lower at 11,303 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index ends lower at 11,303 
Updated 21 May 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index ends lower at 11,303 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index ends lower at 11,303 
  • MSCI Tadawul 30 Index lost 19.78 points to close at 1,441.01
  • Parallel market Nomu declined 110.94 points to end at 27,417.62

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index closed in the red on Wednesday, falling 134.5 points, or 1.18 percent, to settle at 11,303.68. 

The total trading turnover reached SR4.37 billion ($1.16 billion), with 37 stocks advancing and 206 declining. 

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also dropped, losing 19.78 points, or 1.35 percent, to close at 1,441.01. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu declined by 110.94 points, or 0.40 percent, to close at 27,417.62, with 26 stocks gaining and 49 retreating. 

The best-performing stock of the day was Saudi Arabia Refineries Co., rising 4.38 percent to SR69.10. 

Other top gainers included Perfect Presentation for Commercial Services Co., whose share price rose 3.37 percent to SR11.66, and SHL Finance Co., which gained 2.22 percent to SR20.30. 

The day’s largest decline was seen in National Gypsum Co., with its share price dipping 4.76 percent to SR20.4. 

ACWA Power Co. saw its shares drop 4.40 percent to SR274, while Al-Rajhi Co. for Cooperative Insurance declined 4.17 percent to SR115. 

On the announcements front, ACWA Power said it has received approval from the Capital Market Authority to proceed with a SR7.12 billion capital increase through a rights issue. 

The CMA’s decision, issued on May 20, allows the company to offer, register, and list rights issue shares — pending shareholder approval at an upcoming extraordinary general assembly. 

The rights issue was first disclosed on Dec. 19, when ACWA Power submitted its application to the CMA. 

Alinma Bank has successfully completed a $500 million issuance of dollar-denominated sustainable Additional Tier 1 capital certificates under its Tier 1 Capital Certificate Issuance Programme. 

The offering targets eligible investors in Saudi Arabia and internationally, with settlement expected on May 28. 

The issuance comprises 2,500 certificates, each with a par value of $200,000, offering an annual return of 6.5 percent. These perpetual instruments are callable after 5.5 years. 

The certificates will be listed on the International Securities Market of the London Stock Exchange and were offered exclusively under Regulation S of the US Securities Act of 1933. 

During Wednesday’s session, Alinma Bank shares rose 0.18 percent to close at SR27.50 on the main market. 

Flynas has set the final offer price for its initial public offering at SR80 per share following the successful completion of the institutional book-building process, which was oversubscribed by 99.8 times, according to a statement.

BSF Capital, Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia, and Goldman Sachs Saudi Arabia, acting as joint financial advisors, co-underwriters, and joint bookrunners for the IPO, confirmed that institutional investors subscribed in full to the 51,255,568 ordinary shares allocated in the first phase, representing 100 percent of the total offered.

Following this, up to 20 percent of the total offering will be allocated to retail investors in the second phase of the IPO.

Saudi Fransi Capital, serving as lead manager, announced that all necessary arrangements have been completed with receiving agents to facilitate the individual subscription process, which will run for three days from May 28 until June 1 at 12:00 p.m.


Saudi Arabia’s PIF halts Swiss financial market investments over Credit Suisse fallout

Saudi Arabia’s PIF halts Swiss financial market investments over Credit Suisse fallout
Updated 21 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s PIF halts Swiss financial market investments over Credit Suisse fallout

Saudi Arabia’s PIF halts Swiss financial market investments over Credit Suisse fallout
  • Decision driven by how Swiss regulators handled 2023 government-backed rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS Group
  • PIF continues to expand footprint across Europe, signaling redirection of capital

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will no longer allocate capital to Switzerland’s financial markets, two years after suffering losses from the collapse of Credit Suisse.

During the FII PRIORITY Europe Summit in Albania, PIF Gov. Yasir Al-Rumayyan said that the decision was driven by the manner in which Swiss regulators handled the 2023 government-backed rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS Group, reported Bloomberg.

The abrupt deal was executed without shareholders’ approval, impacting investors across the Middle East.

PIF, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, is reassessing its investment strategy amid growing concerns over regulatory stability and investor protection.

The fund’s decision to halt investments in Switzerland’s financial markets marks a significant shift in its approach, underscoring the long-term impact of the 2023 Credit Suisse collapse on regional and institutional investor confidence.

PIF also continues to expand its footprint across Europe, signaling a redirection of capital.

“We’re not going to invest in the financial markets in Switzerland. If you change something overnight and wipe out all of your investors, this is a big red flag,” Al-Rumayyan said, as reported by Bloomberg.

The remarks were made during an on-stage discussion with Noel Quinn, newly appointed chairman of Zurich-based Julius Baer Group Ltd.

Quinn responded: “As the chairman of a Swiss bank as of 10 days ago, that concerns me.”

The 2023 acquisition of Credit Suisse was finalized rapidly following a sharp decline in its stock price.

The plunge became worse after the former chairman of the Saudi National Bank, Ammar Al-Khudairy, said the bank would “absolutely not” be open to further investments in Credit Suisse.

“The deal didn’t receive approval from either Credit Suisse or UBS shareholders as regulators and lawmakers rushed to contain a crisis of confidence that was spreading across global markets,” according to Bloomberg.

The 2023 acquisition of Credit Suisse was finalized rapidly following a sharp decline in its stock price. Shutterstock

At the time, shareholders from the Middle East, including SNB and the Qatar Investment Authority, collectively held around 20 percent of Credit Suisse.

SNB, which was the largest shareholder in the Swiss lender, had called on Credit Suisse to reject the offer from UBS, Bloomberg reported.

Other investors had cautioned that the Swiss government’s decision to override standard merger procedures and sideline shareholder votes could deter institutional investors.

Legal analysts also warned that the rushed nature of the transaction had undermined Switzerland’s standing as a reliable investment destination where the rule of law is safeguarded.

Al-Rumayyan’s remarks came as PIF announced plans to open a subsidiary office in Paris and committed to doubling its investments in Europe to $170 billion by the beginning of the next decade.

The fund has already deployed approximately $85 billion across the region between 2017 and 2024, making strategic investments in key European economies, including the UK, France, and Italy.


Saudi Arabia and Kyrgyzstan announce establishment of a joint business council 

Saudi Arabia and Kyrgyzstan announce establishment of a joint business council 
Updated 21 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia and Kyrgyzstan announce establishment of a joint business council 

Saudi Arabia and Kyrgyzstan announce establishment of a joint business council 
  • Forum reviewed investment opportunities, advantages, and incentives in Saudi Arabia and Kyrgyzstan
  • Bilateral meetings were held between company representatives from both countries

BISHKEK: Saudi Arabia and Kyrgyzstan, represented by the Saudi Chambers Federation and the Kyrgyz Chamber of Commerce and Industry, announced the signing of an agreement to establish a Saudi-Kyrgyz Joint Business Council — a significant step to advance economic cooperation between the two countries. 

The signing ceremony took place on the sidelines of the Saudi-Kyrgyz Business Forum held on May 21 in Bishkek, the Kyrgyz capital, in the presence of Kyrgyz Minister of Economy and Commerce Bakyt Sydykov, Saudi Chambers Federation Chairman Hassan bin Muajab Al-Huwaizi, and several ministers and officials from both nations, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

The forum was also attended by Saudi-Kyrgyz Business Council Chairman Ahmed Al-Dakhil, Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Ibrahim bin Radi Al-Radi, Kyrgyzstan’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Ulukbek Maripov, along with more than 100 investors. 

The chairman of the Saudi Chambers Federation emphasized that the establishment of the joint business council is the result of sustained efforts and mutual desire, providing an effective platform for Saudi and Kyrgyz businessmen to showcase and promote their activities and build commercial partnerships, amid vast opportunities for cooperation between the two countries. 

The joint business forum reviewed investment opportunities, advantages, and incentives in Saudi Arabia and Kyrgyzstan across sectors including exports, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, hydropower, agriculture, and technology. 

Bilateral meetings were also held between company representatives from both countries. 

Notably, the federation’s delegation visits to Kyrgyzstan included a series of meetings with government and private sector officials to discuss prospects for economic cooperation and explore investment opportunities. 


Saudi crude output hits 8.96m bpd in March: JODI data

Saudi crude output hits 8.96m bpd in March: JODI data
Updated 21 May 2025
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Saudi crude output hits 8.96m bpd in March: JODI data

Saudi crude output hits 8.96m bpd in March: JODI data
  • Crude exports fell by 12.11% month on month to 5.75 million bpd
  • Kingdom’s slight increase in crude production came amid a broader strategic pivot within OPEC+

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose to 8.96 million barrels per day in March, reflecting a 0.11 percent monthly increase, according to the latest Joint Organizations Data Initiative data.

According to the database, crude exports fell by 12.11 percent month on month to 5.75 million bpd.

Refinery crude exports rose 10.3 percent during this period to 1.55 million bpd. The uptick was driven primarily by diesel shipments, which jumped 20.66 percent from the previous month to 806,000 bpd.

It also accounted for the largest share of refined product exports in March at 52 percent, followed by motor and aviation gasoline at 17 percent, and fuel oil at 12 percent.

Total refinery output reached 2.94 million bpd in March, a 12.32 percent monthly increase, with diesel comprising 42 percent of refined products, motor and aviation gasoline 24 percent, and fuel oil 15 percent.

Domestic demand for refined petroleum products increased by 223,000 bpd in March compared to the previous month, reaching 2.22 million bpd.

On an annual basis, demand rose by 5.07 percent, equivalent to 107,000 bpd.

The Kingdom’s slight increase in crude production across the month came amid a broader strategic pivot within OPEC+, which has agreed to significantly boost oil output starting in June. The alliance announced an additional 411,000 bpd increase for June, following a similar adjustment made for May.

This marks a continuation of the group’s recent efforts to accelerate the return of previously curtailed supply to the global market. The upcoming increase is expected to add further downward pressure on prices, which have already been trending lower due to ample inventories, modest international demand growth, and increasing non-OPEC output.

Total refinery output reached 2.94 million bpd in March, a 12.32 percent monthly increase. Shutterstock

Direct crude usage

Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn rose to 383,000 bpd in March, reflecting a 35.3 percent increase from the previous month.

Direct crude burn refers to the use of unrefined crude oil for electricity generation, rather than for export or refining.

The increase came amid the seasonal ramp-up in cooling needs as temperatures begin to rise heading into the warmer months.

Although the Kingdom has made substantial progress in expanding its natural gas infrastructure to reduce reliance on direct crude burn, fluctuations still occur, particularly in transitional months like March, when energy demand begins to shift but supply systems have not fully ramped up.