Lebanon cannot face Israel alone

The whole world is waiting for the latest news on the Iran-US negotiations in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. Simultaneously, the Lebanese are negotiating independently with Israel in Washington. The question is: which venue is best for Lebanon?

While Israel is conducting ethnic cleansing in Lebanon, the Lebanese went to negotiate with its diplomats in Washington. Afterward, the Israeli ambassador to the US mentioned that the two countries have much in common and said they are on the “same side of the equation,” with both determined to disarm Hezbollah.

The Lebanese government chose to negotiate directly with Israel and detach itself from any negotiation Iran is conducting. It has taken the decision to remove Lebanon from the sphere of Iranian influence. It last month declared the Iranian ambassador to be persona non grata and told him to leave. The ambassador has reportedly refused to leave and is still in Beirut.

Many are wondering why Lebanon took this path. Beirut is negotiating with Israel while it has no leverage at all. Any agreement would be nothing short of a submission. It is understandable and commendable that the Lebanese want to decouple from Iranian hegemony, but is this the best way and the best time to conduct this task?

Iran has been using Lebanon for 40 years. The late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei thought of Lebanon as being on the “front lines” of Iran’s resistance against the Israeli enemy. Lebanon and Hezbollah have been used by Tehran as a deterrent against Israel. Today, however, Lebanon has the chance to use Iran to flex its muscles with Israel, but it is choosing not to use this option.

The only way Lebanon can get anything half decent from Israel is by being part of a regional equation. By itself, it does not have any negotiating power facing Israel. Therefore, it is not fit to negotiate. 

It is negotiating with Israel while it has no leverage at all. Any agreement would be nothing short of a submission.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

On the other hand, Lebanon knows in advance that, if Israel were to impose its key condition, which is the disarmament of Hezbollah, it would be unable to carry it out. The commander of the army has already said that Hezbollah cannot be disarmed by force, as this might lead to civil unrest.

Of course, the Lebanese government does not want to tie its fate to Iran. It does not want Tehran to negotiate on the back of Lebanon and for Lebanon to be given away as part of the benefits Iran could reap from any deal with the US.

However, the Lebanese need to act smart. Lebanon needs to understand where it stands. Policy cannot be driven by hubris and pride — it should be driven by realism and pragmatism. Lebanon is a small state and small states only have a narrow margin in which to maneuver when it comes to foreign policy. Their foreign policy is often limited, if not determined, by the powers around them.

Therefore, the Lebanese policy needs to be delicately calibrated. How can Lebanon benefit from the Islamabad negotiations without subordinating its fate to Iran? We need to understand that, although the negotiations are between Iran and the US, more players are involved.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this month thanked Turkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, China and Qatar for their role in facilitating the Iran-US mediation. This is where Lebanon should focus its attention. While Beirut should benefit from Iran’s insistence on a ceasefire in Lebanon being included in its negotiations with the US, Lebanon should lobby Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkiye, China and Qatar, which are involved in the mediation, to make sure it does not go back into the Iranian fold. 

Lebanon should use nuanced diplomacy and maximize the benefits from the different powers at play.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Lebanese diplomats should lobby the countries that have a more direct interest in Lebanon, particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkiye and Egypt. It should use nuanced diplomacy and maximize the benefits from the different powers at play.

However, it is by no means fit to face Israel alone unless it is willing to acquiesce to all its demands. Israel has announced that it will occupy an area up to the Litani River, which is 19 km into Lebanese territory. Given the ethnic cleansing that Israel is conducting, the chances are that it will not leave this area unless it is forced to.

It is naive to think that Israel would leave Lebanon alone once the Hezbollah threat is gone. Israel is currently ruled by an expansionist government. It is also conducting ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and there is no Hamas or Hezbollah there. Similarly, Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa has said that Damascus does not seek any confrontation with Israel, yet Tel Aviv has taken more land and last week approved a $334 million plan to build settlements in the occupied Golan Heights.

Lebanon’s government has a huge responsibility. The country is facing an existential threat. This might be the end of Lebanon as we know it. Israel’s schemes for the country are by no means benign. The government should act wisely and be realistic. Lebanon cannot face Israel alone. It needs support from Arab and regional countries, so Islamabad is the option to take.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.