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The US-Iran deal that appears to be on the table might pause military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. But it is very clear that, while the agreement might hold between Iran and the rest of the neighborhood, Hezbollah will be able to keep dragging Lebanon into wars in which it has nothing to gain and plenty to lose. As we have seen, Hezbollah invited Israeli military action and a heavy price was paid by all the Lebanese.
If Lebanon does not take prompt action, this will not be the end of the war but only a truce. The country is still at high risk of being dragged into meaningless conflicts for absolutely no reason. While President Joseph Aoun has courageously engaged in negotiations with Israel, Beirut needs to work on a stable and long-lasting peace with Tel Aviv. But this will never happen or bring any stability if the country does not regain its sovereignty. For this to happen, there are two important steps. The first is to execute the plan of disarming Hezbollah. The second is a new political system.
Both files are equally important. For Hezbollah, we cannot ignore US President Donald Trump’s remarks. He considers the Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions to be excessive. At the same time, he presented Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa as being the most capable of fighting Hezbollah. This is not the first time this has been mentioned. For now, the new Damascus government has clearly stated its refusal to interfere in Lebanese affairs. However, if Iran were to choose a revengeful and aggressive policy following the war, while pushing Hezbollah in the same direction, this stance might not last. This scenario should not be welcomed by anyone. Not even the Sunni Lebanese.
The country is still at high risk of being dragged into meaningless conflicts for absolutely no reason
Khaled Abou Zahr
Nevertheless, we cannot accept that Hezbollah creates tensions with Lebanon’s neighbors both in the south and the north. This would lead to an even more precarious situation than has ever been experienced. This is why the government needs to take strong action to move ahead with the disarmament plan. The state must be the only military force and it must recover the decision of war and peace that Iran has usurped.
The current Lebanese government has been more vocal against Iranian interference. Unfortunately, because of Hezbollah, these are only words. But words matter and if, for now, that is all it can do, then there is a need to continue denouncing Iran’s interference in Lebanon’s affairs and its financing and support of nonstate terrorist organizations.
More importantly, there needs to be a new political system. We cannot keep playing political musical chairs. As a country of minorities, we cannot keep seeking support from outside powers, one after the other, to dominate or take a bigger share of the political pie. We have gone from Maronites to Sunnis and now Shiites. We cannot go round again. It has to stop here. To achieve this, we cannot keep the same political system. We cannot allow any minority to be underrepresented or overrepresented. This is the recipe that keeps bringing destruction to the country.
We cannot allow any minority to be underrepresented or overrepresented. This keeps bringing destruction to the country
Khaled Abou Zahr
Lebanon must adopt a new political system and there are many options to choose from. But one thing is for sure: in a country of minorities, we cannot let the absolute majority be the way. That is the fastest way to ostracize entire communities, which in turn will seek foreign support. This is exactly why the civil approach that some are pushing would be a mistake. It is the old formula repackaged and will not change anything.
Moreover, this centralized approach will not solve the problems that the Lebanese are facing: lack of security; weak infrastructure development, from electricity to logistics; poor healthcare; downgraded education; and the list goes on. Lebanon cannot function on a pyramidal system like France, for example.
I believe that we should consider federalism. This is in no way a call to divide the country. It is the opposite. We should let the communities decide for themselves at the lowest level possible, allowing them to feel safe and in control of their destiny. This does not mean that territories should be closed off to each other, but that when it comes to healthcare, education, policing, taxation (within federal limits) and other matters, the local population should decide. This would leave the federal government to handle national matters such as foreign policy, defense, monetary policy and overarching legislation.
This is the transformation that is needed. This solution should reassure every single community in the country. It would recognize the right of each community to feel represented and allow healthy collaboration and competition between each region.
Some will argue that Lebanon has other priorities and that any new political system cannot be implemented until Hezbollah is disarmed. I disagree. This is the time to start building something new and to start thinking of what is important instead of what is urgent. In this case, I believe it is both important and urgent to start designing a new political system for the country.
- Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.