https://arab.news/rz2kz
The world is growing older but it is not growing older evenly. In many advanced economies, birthrates have fallen to historic lows, populations are aging rapidly and employers are struggling to find enough workers. Meanwhile, across much of Africa, South Asia and parts of the Middle East, millions of young people enter the labor market every year with aspirations that far exceed the opportunities available to them at home.
The result is the defining demographic conundrum of the 21st century: Aging societies need workers, while younger societies need jobs. But instead of bridging this gap, electoral politics is increasingly driving the two apart.
The consequences are becoming visible across Europe and North America. Violent crimes committed by a small number of asylum seekers, undocumented migrants or second-generation immigrants have generated intense public anger. Images of overcrowded boats crossing the Mediterranean, clashes at borders and signs of social tension have created the impression that some Western governments have lost control of migration.
The political response has been predictable. Immigration restrictions are tightening with every passing year. Border controls are being strengthened. Parties advocating tougher migration policies are gaining ground. In several countries, support for right-wing populist movements has risen sharply, driven by fear of uncontrolled immigration and cultural change.
Be it in Britain or Spain, the concerns of local populations should not be dismissed as xenophobia. Governments have an obligation to maintain public safety, preserve social cohesion and ensure that migration happens in an orderly manner. When people become convinced that these responsibilities are being neglected, long-term trust in institutions erodes.
Equally, there is a danger in allowing fear to dictate policy.
The demographic challenges confronting advanced economies are daunting. Fertility rates in most developed countries have fallen well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Countries such as Italy, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Spain are experiencing rapid population aging. The number of retirees is rising while the number of working-age people is flattening out or declining.
The economic implications are far-reaching. Fewer workers mean slower growth, greater pressure on pension systems, higher healthcare costs and soaring fiscal burdens. Without sufficient labor, businesses struggle to flourish and governments struggle to fund the services that aging populations require.
Without sufficient labor, businesses struggle to flourish and governments struggle to fund the services that aging populations require.
Arnab Neil Sengupta
At the same time, many countries in the Global South are experiencing the opposite problem. For instance, Africa’s population is projected to double by about mid-century. Several African countries have median ages below 20. Every year, millions of young people enter labor markets that are often unable to absorb them. Economic growth has improved living standards in some countries but job creation has seldom kept pace with population growth.
For many young people, therefore, migration is not simply an individual choice but the only pathway they can see to economic security and stability. This has created a global mismatch in which one part of the world has jobs but not enough workers while another has workers but not enough jobs.
It is disingenuous to argue that migration itself is the problem. Rather, unmanaged migration is the problem. Complicating matters are weakly enforced integration policies, inadequate border management and political leaders who either deny public concerns or exploit them for electoral gain.
Demographic trends suggest that some level of migration will remain essential for many advanced economies that are experiencing population aging and falling birthrates. The challenge is how to manage it in ways that are socially sustainable, politically acceptable and economically beneficial.
This is where the Gulf countries offer salutary lessons. The Gulf region has built some of the world’s most dynamic economies despite having relatively small national populations. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have relied on carefully managed immigration systems to supply labor, attract talent and support economic growth.
Foreign workers constitute a majority of the workforce in several Gulf countries. They have helped build cities, operate businesses, staff hospitals, teach in schools and drive innovation in emerging industries.
The Gulf model reflects unique local circumstances but it also demonstrates that economic openness and national identity do not have to be mutually exclusive.
Since the 1970s, the Gulf region has shown that countries can welcome large numbers of foreign workers while maintaining confidence in their cultural traditions and social norms. Migration can be managed through clear rules, transparent regimes and strong institutions rather than through panic or hostility toward foreign workers.
Western societies operate under different political and moral conditions and their immigration challenges are often more complex. Even so, there is much to learn from the Gulf’s emphasis on openness and pragmatism.
The alternative is unviable. Aging societies retreat behind ever-higher barriers while younger societies face growing frustration as opportunities remain scarce. Such a mismatch has already resulted in more irregular migration, greater political polarization and deeper international tensions.
A wiser, more mature approach would recognize that demographic imbalance is destiny. Advanced economies need workers. Developing economies need investment, jobs and assurances of legal mobility. The two sides have requirements that are complementary, so Western governments would be wise to think beyond short-term political pressures.
That means setting aside funds for investing in education and job creation in younger societies. It means expanding legal migration channels while enforcing immigration laws consistently and humanely. It means helping newcomers integrate successfully into their host societies while expecting them to respect local laws and values.
If, acting in haste and panic, aging societies pull up the drawbridges, they may discover that they have protected themselves from newcomers only to find themselves increasingly short of workers, innovation and growth. If younger societies are left without opportunities, the forces driving migration will only intensify.
To sum up, the world is aging but it is aging unevenly. The challenge is not simply how to control the movement of people across borders but to manage demographic change in a way that preserves social cohesion while maintaining economic vitality.
Since the demographic divide between old and young nations cannot be wished away, it is best tackled with a mix of sensitivity, foresight and a spirit of cooperation.
• Arnab Neil Sengupta is a senior editor at Arab News. X: @arnabnsg