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The 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification convened in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, on Monday and runs through to Aug. 28 under the theme “Restoring Land. Restoring Hope.”
The conference is being hosted by a nation in which about 77 percent of land is degraded. The event brings together representatives of the COP’s 197 members, alongside scientists, civil society, indigenous peoples and private sector actors.
COP17 confronts the interconnected crises of desertification, land degradation and drought. These processes threaten the fundamental pillars of human security: food production, water availability, rural livelihoods and geopolitical stability.
Land degradation currently affects up to 40 percent of the Earth’s surface. About 100 million hectares of productive land become unproductive each year — an area comparable to the size of Egypt.
In addition, water-scarce drylands, which already encompass more than 40 percent of the planet’s land excluding Antarctica, expanded by about 4.3 million sq. km in the three decades up to 2020. Some 77.6 percent of the world’s land surface experienced drier conditions over the same timeframe relative to the preceding 30 years. An estimated 2.3 billion people — nearly a third of the global population — reside in drylands, a figure that has roughly doubled since 1990 and could approach 5 billion under high-emissions scenarios by 2100.
The main drivers are both climatic and anthropogenic. On the one hand, rising temperatures intensify aridity. On the other hand, unsustainable agricultural practices, overgrazing, deforestation and soil mismanagement are accelerating erosion and salinization.
In Mongolia, average annual temperatures have risen by almost 2.5 degrees Celsius since the mid-20th century, while uncontrolled livestock grazing is compounding deficits in climate-driven moisture. Similar patterns prevail across the regions of greatest concern.
Sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel are among the most severely affected zones. Africa accounts for hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded land, with wind and water erosion particularly pronounced.
If current trajectories persist, models project that up to 95 percent of the world’s land could be degraded by 2050.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
In the Sahel, recurrent droughts have undermined systems that support tens of millions of people. Eastern and Southern Africa have seen acute food insecurity affecting more than 90 million individuals in recent drought cycles.
In Somalia, tens of thousands of drought-related deaths have been recorded in single episodes, while Zambia’s hydropower capacity has collapsed to single-digit percentages of normal, triggering widespread blackouts. The densest overlaps of land degradation, poverty and childhood stunting are concentrated in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia.
The Middle East and North Africa region faces acute water scarcity. Large portions of the region’s agricultural land suffer from salinization and declining productivity, while sand and dust storms are intensifying.
Parts of South Asia, notably areas of India and Pakistan, combine high population density with declining land productivity and groundwater stress, placing hundreds of millions of people at risk of water insecurity.
The consequences are far-reaching. Food security is directly compromised: every 10 percent increase in land degradation is associated with a circa 2 percent increase in crop yield gaps. Annual global losses have been estimated at 20 million tonnes of crop production, which would be enough to feed tens of millions of people and be worth billions of dollars in agricultural revenue.
Furthermore, water supplies diminish as degraded soil retains less moisture. If current trajectories persist, models project that up to 95 percent of the world’s land could be degraded by 2050 under worst-case assumptions, with drought affecting more than three-quarters of the global population. This could trigger cascading failures in food systems and social stability.
One of the problems to address is financing. According to a 2024 estimate, at least $2.6 trillion in cumulative investment is required by 2030 to restore more than 1 billion hectares of degraded land. That means $355 billion per year is required, but the projected investments for the same period amount to only $77 billion per year, leaving a $278 billion annual shortfall.
The Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership, launched at COP16, mobilized pledges of about $12 billion over seven years for 74 vulnerable countries — a meaningful and important step.
To address this crisis, three interlocking priorities should be looked at. First, the accelerated implementation of land degradation neutrality targets is essential. More than 130 countries have set voluntary targets, aiming collectively to restore hundreds of millions of hectares.
About 100 million hectares of productive land become unproductive each year — an area comparable to the size of Egypt.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Second, our actions must shift from reactive crisis response to proactive risk management.
Third, financing must expand beyond traditional official development assistance. Multilateral institutions, including the Global Environment Facility and regional initiatives such as the Great Green Wall and the Middle East Green Initiative, offer proven vehicles for scaled investment.
In summary, sub-Saharan Africa, the Sahel, the MENA region, Central Asia and parts of South Asia cannot restore degraded landscapes or build drought resilience in isolation. Mongolia’s hosting of COP17 underscores that the ongoing negotiations in Ulaanbaatar offer an opportunity to move from declarations to actions.
- Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh