Pro-Assad response ‘depends on aim of strikes’

BEIRUT: Any retaliation by Syria and its allies to limited Western military strikes would be restrained, but large-scale intervention aimed at ousting President Bashar Assad would inflame the region, analysts say.
Analysts note, the breadth and intensity of the pro-Assad response will depend greatly on the type of action taken against his regime.
“Everything depends on the nature, the extent and the goals of a Western strike and, for the moment, I expect nothing more than a warning strike,” said Joseph Bahout, a Syria expert and professor at Sciences Po in Paris.
“In this scenario, neither Hezbollah nor Iran will go too far. We can expect ‘lateral and indirect’ moves like aggression toward UNIFIL (the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon) or anonymous rockets against Israel but, in the end, it will not be anything new.” But if Western powers press ahead with moves to overthrow the regime, that could change the response tremendously. “In this case, we cannot rule out an extreme response, particularly from Iran,” Bahout said. “And there is at least one unknown — Russia’s reaction.”
“For the moment, Iran is launching warnings, but if the Americans decide to intervene, they will fall into their (Iran’s) trap,” said Amir Mohebian, an analyst and journalist based in Iran. “Iran will sit back and watch as the Americans and their allies sink into a quagmire.”
But Bassam Abu Abdullah, head of the Damascus Center for Strategic Studies, says even a limited conflict could degenerate into something broader. “The Americans could strike to preserve their image with their allies who have criticized their inaction, to take a position of strength as compared to Russia in peace negotiations and to give a boost to rebels on the ground,” he said. But, “if such a strike does happen, it will not stop there, because the other side will respond... and the whole region will be embroiled in a regional war.” “For now, though, none of the actors want to show their hand.” Ibrahim Al-Amine, head of Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese daily that is seen as close to Syria as well as Hezbollah, echoed those remarks. “Who can guarantee that things will stop at that point,” he asked. “Who can guarantee that such a confrontation will not degenerate into a wider war and that a strike will not open the gates to hell?”
France will not “shirk its responsibilities” in Syria, a source in the French presidency said Tuesday. The source said the “massive use” of chemical weapons is “unacceptable,” adding that there was no doubt that Assad’s regime had used them in a deadly attack last week on a Damascus suburb.
Syria’s opposition coalition said on Tuesday Assad’s forces had dropped phosphorus bombs and napalm on civilians in rural Aleppo on Monday, killing at least 10 people and wounding dozens.
Video footage uploaded on the Internet, apparently of Monday’s attack, showed doctors frantically smearing white cream on the reddened skin of several screaming people, many of them young boys. “Assad’s military aircraft have hit populated areas with the internationally prohibited phosphorus bombs and napalm,” the opposition coalition said in a statement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel was not involved in Syria’s civil war, but would respond forcefully to any attempts to attack it.
“The state of Israel is prepared for any scenario,” Netanyahu said in a statement. “We are not a party to this civil war in Syria but if we identify any attempt to attack us we will respond and we will respond forcefully,” he said.
More than 50,000 Syrian refugees have crossed into Iraq’s Kurdish region in less than two weeks, an official said Tuesday, as authorities rush to house them in more permanent camps.