It has never been easy to predict results of an election and it is the same in Pakistan now where an extremely hot contest is clearly foreseen in the upcoming elections on May 11. The Punjab province will be the main battleground and while the heat is on, making a proper assessment will be well nigh impossible. A general consensus among political pundits is that a grim struggle for supremacy is gradually shifting to Punjab. As the political battle intensifies, the Election Commission of Pakistan needs to exercise utmost caution because even a minor slip can result in fatal consequences.
But officials of the caretaker governments — mostly the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) nominees — both in provinces and at the center are taking decisions, which are casting a doubt on their neutrality. Keeping the army out of polling stations is not only unconventional but it also raises suspicions about the PPP’s intention to have free and fair elections.
It is therefore important that the army is present at all polling stations to ensure free and fair elections that will have a far-reaching impact on national life and on the country’s future. In fact Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and his officers need to conduct a full-fledged two-day training program for the troops and their commanding officers. They should be told in no uncertain terms that soldiers posted at all polling stations must remain watchful at all times. Ballot boxes must be opened in their presence, sealed and placed at a clearly visible place for all polling agents to see.
Candidates need to carry their computerized national ID cards, (or where this is not possible, old and expired cars can be used) and show them to polling agents before the ballot paper is handed over to a voter. After stamping the candidate of his choice, the voter must drop the ballot paper in the box in the presence of a soldier and all polling agents.
Once these ballot boxes are filled and need to be replaced, an army officer should ask the presiding officer to place it in full view.
Under no circumstances these ballot papers should be shifted to another room or elsewhere because once the ballot boxes are out of sight, the risk of their being tampered with may escalate. A soldier posted outside a polling station may maintain the peace on the D-day of May 11 but if he is placed inside the polling booth, he will be an effective vigilante. Riggings mostly take place with the connivance of the polling staff or through manipulations of results and hence a high alert needs to be maintained throughout.
There are mixed reports pouring in from different regions. In Punjab, especially in the central and upper areas of the province, there is tough competition between Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Nawaz Sharif. If party flags, banners, and portraits of leaders are any indicator, then Imran Khan appears to have a definite edge over the PML(N) in a locality like Anarkali shopping area, long considered a stronghold of Nawaz Sharif. The scenario is not much different in Rawalpindi where Imran is pitted against veteran Hanif Abbasi who switched loyalties from Jamat-e-Islami to be a PML(N) candidate. Sheikh Rasheed has also joined the fray and is a force to reckon with too. In Gujarat, there is strong competition between former Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhri Pervez Elahi and Ahmad Mukhtar, a veteran PPP loyalist.
Imran Khan has gained tremendous ground in the last two weeks. His series of rallies in Mansehra, Abbotabad, Havelian, Hsaripur, Hazara, went off extremely well. But rallies in themselves do not guarantee a win in the polls. However some of the veteran pundits feel very strongly that Imran Khan will be able to pull down the Awami National Party hierarchy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
In southern Punjab, PPP seems to have an upper hand. A stalwart like Shah Mahmood Qureshi has chosen to be an independent nominee from Ghotki where his spiritual followers, are backed by Pir Pagara, whose Functional League may pull up considerable surprises in Sindh. The new Pir Pagara has visibly distanced himself from his late father. He is no longer willing to play the establishment card and has brought a qualitative change in the interior of Sindh. The nationalist parties are in league with Pir Pagara, which gives him an upper hand in the region.
Larkana is still the home of the PPP but President Zardari’s sister, Faryal Talpur’s modus operandi, has not been very helpful for the party.
Dadu, Shikarpur, Khairpur, may also see divided votes. However the PPP’s strategy to thrive on sacrifices made by Bhutto and his slain daughter may do the trick for them.
In Karachi, the MQM which has been complaining of being pushed to the wall, has been opposing the army’s presence at polling stations.
If their apprehensions are proved right, the MQM may lose a couple of prestigious contests. The MQM, the PPP and the ANP have been severely restrained from public projections of their viewpoints because of the Taleban terror.
There is logic in their arguments, but their association with the PPP in the last five years may prove to be a drawback.
Whatever the results, it is now becoming increasingly clear that the coming Saturday may bring some major surprises to the Punjab, Sindh, including Karachi,and KPK. The turn out can vary from place to place.
The city of Karachi is bubbling with life, with its restaurants, and cinema houses packed to capacity. There is fear but it has failed to dampen the spirit of the people. The army’s presence at the polling stations, and inside the pooling booths, may effectively check terrorism on the polling day, and the risk of intended rigging in elections.
