Sudan’s decision to stop the flow of South Sudan’s oil through its downstream facilities not only represents a setback in the cooperation agreements signed between the two countries last September, but risks further straining of relations between them.
Unfortunately, the political scene in both countries encourages such an attitude. While the regime in Khartoum is militarily battling the rebel Sudanese Revolutionary Forces (SRF) in Darfur, the Blue Nile and South Kordofan provinces, the civil opposition confirmed last week that it has embarked upon a 100-day program to topple the regime of President Omar Bashir through demonstrations and sit-ins, thus exploiting the deteriorating economic conditions and spiraling inflation.
South Sudan is not doing any better. Though it has so far managed to survive the consequences of its unilateral decision to halt oil production in January of last year thanks to its Western allies and austerity measures, stunting oil revenues will exasperate the already difficult economic situation and will have political ramifications.
Last month, leading Western diplomats accredited to the southern city of Juba, namely from the United States, United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland and the European Union, issued a joint statement where they expressed “deep concern” over the violence engulfing the Jongeli state and called on the government and its army, as well as other groups, to protect civilians and look for political, not military solutions. Unrest in Jongeli, the biggest region in South Sudan, dates back to even before South Sudan acquired its independence two years ago.
Ironically enough, it turned military to the extent that the rebels ran into Buma, the garrison that was the first to be taken over by southern rebels who were battling the then Khartoum government in the 1980s.
However, more serious is the growing fragmentation in the top leadership of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which is the leading party that brought independence to South Sudan. The country is less than two years from the next presidential elections and it should hold its convention to nominate the SPLM president, who will automatically be the party’s candidate for the top post.
However, the meeting, which should have been convened last month following a series of delays, did not take place and it is not clear when it is going to assemble.
Many analysts are of the opinion that unless some kind of reconciliation takes place between leading figures, the convention will lead to political divisions within the party, which will most likely take on a tribal orientation.
Rumors are rife that names are already being tabled to compete with the current President Salva Kiir. Among the potential names surfacing are his deputy Dr. Riek Machar and the speaker of Parliament, James Wani Igga. The behind the scenes struggle came out into the open few weeks ago when Kiir issued a presidential decree stripping his deputy Dry Machar of some of his powers, though the decree did not make clear what powers were actually taken from him.
This is a very tempting situation to work toward regime change in either country and that defeats the general approach of having two countries living at peace with each other. Escalation into this direction not only defeats this principle but risks inflaming the whole region given the strategic geographical location of the two countries.
The separation of South Sudan was hoped to have put an end to the suffering of the past, usher a new era of peace and garner mutual interests between the two countries.
Instead, the past 50 years of mistrust and continuous strife have proved hard to overcome and the tendency seems to be moving from brinkmanship to a zero sum option that requires the intervention of the international community, either through the African Union or Western counties that have invested in peace between Khartoum and Juba. A window of hope is still open through the provision of a period of 60 days to fully implement the halting of oil flow as stipulated by the agreement signed by the two countries.
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