Saudi Arabia to restrain oil exports in March, confident cuts will stabilize market

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak attend a news conference at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters)
Updated 14 February 2018

Saudi Arabia to restrain oil exports in March, confident cuts will stabilize market

LONDON: Saudi Arabia will restrain its oil exports in March despite lower domestic need for crude as the Kingdom pushes to eliminate fully the global oil glut and combat worries about a new cycle of oil price weakness.
Saudi Arabia will keep its crude exports below 7 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, despite a maintenance shutdown of the 400,000 bpd SAMREF refinery, the Saudi energy ministry said, confirming a plan given earlier by industry sources.
“Saudi Arabia remains focused on working down excess oil inventories,” a ministry spokesman said in a statement.
“Market volatility is a common concern for producers and consumers, and the Kingdom is committed to mitigating this volatility and moderating its negative impacts by responsibly meeting its pledges” under an OPEC-led supply cut deal.
OPEC and outside producers including Russia are reducing output to get rid of a supply glut. The pact began a year ago and has been extended until the end of 2018.
The cut has boosted oil prices, which in January topped $71 a barrel for the first time since 2014. But crude has since slid and hit a 2018 low of $61.76 this week, pressured by rising US output and forecasts oversupply may persist.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih sounded an upbeat note even after the price drop, saying on Wednesday he was sure cooperation between OPEC and its non-OPEC allies will continue to stabilize the market.
“I am confident that our high degree of cooperation and coordination will continue and bring the desired results,” Falih told an industry conference attended by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo.
“Market volatility is unfortunate but ultimately it is the fundamentals that I watch.”
Barkindo said oil demand would grow this year at healthy levels and data pointed to continued high compliance by producers in January with their pledges under the supply-cut deal.
OPEC has delivered more than 100 percent of the output cuts that members pledged under the deal, according to figures from OPEC and other analysts, helped in part by an involuntary drop in Venezuela, where output is falling amid an economic crisis.
The Saudi energy ministry also said production by state oil company Aramco in March will be 100,000 bpd below February’s level, suggesting Saudi Arabia will continue to pump less than its OPEC target.
Novak met with Saudi King Salman at his palace in Riyadh on Wednesday and the two discussed producers’ efforts to rebalance the market and decrease surplus inventories, SPA reported.
Novak had said on Tuesday oil inventories had been declining despite the rise in US production.  


Economists fear a US recession in 2021

Updated 42 min 4 sec ago

Economists fear a US recession in 2021

  • Trump’s higher budget deficits ‘might dampen the economy’

WASHINGTON: A number of US business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the US by the end of 2021.

Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. 

That’s up from 25 percent in a survey taken in February. Only 2 percent of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38 percent predict that it will occur in 2020.

Trump, however, has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week’s steep drop in the financial markets and saying on Sunday, “I don’t think we’re having a recession.” A strong economy is key to the Republican president’s 2020 reelection prospects.

The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump’s tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key US trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada. 

Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade. But US trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.

Trade between the US and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until Dec. 15 tariffs on about 60 percent of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the US buys from China.

The financial markets last week signaled the possibility of a US recession, adding to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions and word from Britain and Germany that their economies are shrinking.

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of US-China trade negotiations. Only 5 percent predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64 percent suggested a superficial agreement was possible and nearly 25 percent expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

The 226 respondents, who work mainly for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1. That was before the White House announced 10 percent tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

As a whole, the business economists’ recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration’s overall approach to the economy.

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. US retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.