How Trump upset the G7 applecart

US President Donald Trump gave the relationship with his G7 colleagues 10 out of 10, but dissonances dominated their meeting in Quebec. The Europeans do not see eye to eye with the Trump administration on any major issue — trade, the Paris accord on climate change or the Iran nuclear agreement. Wherever one stands on any of these issues, such rifts between the “leader of the free world” and his longest standing allies are unprecedented. Some commentators even dubbed this summit the “G6 plus one.”

The Financial Times called the G7 the “steering committee of the global economy.” That may be true, but the US president is not interested. He believes in bilateral, not multilateral, solutions. He has long been vociferous in his skepticism about the efficacy of the World Trade Organization, the Bretton Woods institutions and the G20. He is not a student of history, but a believer in unconventional approaches and the power of gut instinct — his gut instinct, to be precise.

It should not therefore have come as a surprise when Trump announced that Russia should be invited back into the fold, against the consensus among his G7 allies.

Trump may actually have a point in that Russia is an important country, rich in natural resources. It is the world’s largest country by landmass, spanning 11 time zones, and has a big nuclear arsenal. It may in many ways be better to engage with Vladimir Putin than to hurl outrage at him over his international behaviour. Nevertheless, the frustration of EU Council President Donald Tusk was understandable in the light of Russian meddling in European politics, the Skripal affair and the fact that Russia was expelled from the G8 in 2014 because of its annexation of Crimea. Trump was unconventional and inconsistent at the same time, given that he had slapped biting economic sanctions on Russia a few months earlier. Again, that is nothing new with the president.

Meanwhile the EU has its own problems, which go far beyond Brexit. The new populist government in Italy sent markets into a tail spin because its proposed finance minister, Paolo Savona, has long advocated leaving the euro. The president vetoed that appointment so Savona is now in charge of Italy’s relations with the EU — where he will no doubt create controversy. Italy’s government is led by the right-wing anti-immigration League and the left-wing Five Star movement, two populist groups at opposite ends of the political spectrum. Spain has a new minority government under the socialist party’s Pedro Sanchez. Its ability to survive the legislative period that ends in 2020 is in doubt. Some observers do not even give it until the end of the year.

As if the instability on its southern rim were not enough, the EU is divided among leaders who want “ever deeper integration,” such as Jean-Claude Juncker and Emmanuel Macron; pragmatists who advocate fiscal prudence, such as Angela Merkel; and populists thriving on anti-immigration platforms, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Austria’s Sebastian Kurz and the League’s Matteo Salvini. These right-wing populists are in many ways closer to Trump than to other European leaders — not least in their appreciation of Vladimir Putin and Russia’s role in international politics.

While the multilateral mechanisms of the “free world” face division, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) seems to be going strong. Its leaders gather this weekend for their own summit. The SCO counts the former Soviet republics, Russia, China, Pakistan and India among its members. It represents 40 per cent of the world’s population and 20 per cent of its GDP. Its job is to ensure stability in Central Asia. It may be easier to find common ground in an organisation where most heads of state are autocrats and sole decision makers than in organisations where leaders are under constant electoral scrutiny. It helps that China’s “Belt and Road” initiative brings investment and economic activity (albeit combined with high levels of national debt) to many central Asian countries.

For the time being, the “G6” seem to stand united. However, Italy is now in favor of readmitting Russia, and Japan is far less belligerent than the rest on the subject of Trump’s new trade tariffs. Shinzo Abe has bigger fish to fry; he needs to ensure Japan’s security concerns are taken into consideration when Trump meets North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un in Singapore on Tuesday. However, should the US president make good on his threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on light vehicles, Abe is bound to join his “G6” colleagues in their outrage. In the meantime, Trump left Canada early to prepare for the Singapore summit. He missed sessions on the environment and oceans. This comes as little surprise from a president who denies climate change and is not motivated by environmental concerns.

All this seems to show one thing: Donald Trump has seriously upset the applecart and we can no longer take for granted the post-Second World War consensus as to who is friend or foe. The multilateral order based on the principles of free trade, democracy and human rights, be it Bretton Woods, the WTO or the EU, is under stress, and the participants will need to find new ways of collaborating. At the same time, new organizations such as the SCO are up and coming. China is the new kid on the block, and will assert its position. The deck of cards is being rearranged. With change comes instability, and a vacuum that will be filled by new players.

• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources