Dubai rent, sale prices continue quarterly fall

Agents expect further falls in Dubai rental values of up to 5 percent, according to the Property Monitor survey. (Shutterstock)
Updated 11 July 2018
0

Dubai rent, sale prices continue quarterly fall

  • Rental payments made in four checks increased by 6 percent during 2Q
  • Off-plan sales accounted for the majority of the total in the second quarter of 2018

LONDON: Dubai’s residential property market witnessed a continued decline in rents and sales prices during the second quarter of 2018 according to a new report on the emirate’s real estate sector.

Figures released by Cavendish Maxwell, in its 2Q 2018 Dubai Market Report, registered quarterly declines of 1.1 percent in residential sales prices and an average 2.5 percent drop in rental values.


International City (Clusters), The Greens in Emirates Living, Discovery Gardens and Al-Furjan witnessed the most pronounced decline.

Drawing on data from the recent Property Monitor Residential Survey for 2Q 2018, the report showed that most rental agreements made during this period were for one check (38 percent), which marked a 12 percent decrease on the previous quarter.

Rental payments made in four checks increased by 6 percent during 2Q as landlords offer financial incentives to keep units occupied.

Off-plan sales accounted for the majority of the total in the second quarter of 2018, with Mohammed bin Rashid City, Business Bay and Jumeirah Village Circle leading the way.

Dubai Marina, International City and Dubai Sports City were at the forefront in secondary market apartment sales while Emirates Living and International City led in secondary market sales among villas and townhouses.

The survey also showed that most agents anticipate a further drop in princes and rents by up to 5 percent over 3Q 2018.

FASTFACTS

2.5%: Drop in Dubai rental values in the past three months. Residential sale prices fell by 1.1 percent.


Oil markets jittery over lower demand forecasts

Updated 18 November 2018
0

Oil markets jittery over lower demand forecasts

RIYADH: Oil prices continued to nosedive last week over demand concerns amid an outlook of a slowing global economy. The strong US dollar weighed on both oil prices and the global demand outlook. Currencies weakened against the dollar, eroding their purchasing power.
Brent was down to $66.76 per barrel and WTI dropped to $56.46 per barrel by Friday. The former came close to its one-year low as both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC released monthly reports that articulated a darkening demand outlook in the short term. This increased fears of an oil demand slowdown. Market fundamentals also suggest that price volatility is likely to remain high in the near-term, although the oil market reached a balance in early October.
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) arrived with bearish sentiments, revising downward its oil-demand forecast for this year and next, for the fourth month in a row. It forecast that global oil demand will rise by 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, 70,000 less than what OPEC expected last month. The MOMR also forecast increasing non-OPEC supply growth for 2019, with higher volumes outpacing the annual growth in world oil demand, leading to an excess in supply. The report was welcomed with open arms by the IEA, which had been at least in part responsible for driving sentiment toward a bear market. Surprisingly, OPEC warned that oil demand is falling faster than expected. Necessary action is a must.
Saudi Arabia is not sitting idly by while oil markets look as if they are heading toward instability. Markets were expecting severe US sanctions on Iran, which could have resulted in supply shortages once Iran’s crude exports went to zero. The unexpected introduction of waivers to allow eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil, was however an eye-opener. Now, as the world’s only swing producer, Saudi Arabia will have to take other measures to balance oil markets and drain excess oil from global stockpiles.
Despite what some analysts are claiming, there is currently no strategy to send less oil to the US to help reduce US stockpiles. Yes, some have claimed that Saudi crude shipments to the US are at about 600,000 barrels per day this month, which is a little more than half of what was being shipped in the summer months. But the reasons for this are related to seasonally low demand, the surge in US inventories and refineries heading into their winter maintenance season. Remember that November crude oil shipments were allocated to the US refiners last month before the US waivers on the Iranian sanctions were revealed. Also, keep in mind that Saudi Arabia owns the largest refinery in the US, which has a refining capacity that exceeds 600,000 bpd.

Lurking on the horizon is the massive US budget deficit and increasing rumblings that the US economic boom is over. 

It must be noted that there is a degree of financial manipulation underway in the oil futures markets. At the moment, there are few places where quick profits can be made, so some investors moved from stocks to commodities. Now, there are downward pressures on oil prices as some commodities market traders went long on oil futures, thinking that crude prices would rise. Then these same traders shorted natural gas, assuming that with a warmer winter, prices of that fuel would fall. Unfortunately for the traders, Trump’s sanction waivers on Iranian crude oil exports and cold weather on the US East Coast, caused exactly the reverse to take place. Oil prices fell and natural gas prices rose. Traders were therefore forced to sell their assets to cover margins, pushing oil prices lower. It is expected that some hedge funds and investment funds will also be moving away from going long on oil futures and this will cause further selling.
Lurking on the horizon is the massive US budget deficit and increasing rumbling that the US economic boom is over. The US federal budget deficit rose 17 percent in the 2018 fiscal year. It is now larger than in any year since 2012. Federal spending is up and amidst US President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, and federal revenue is not keeping pace. To make matters worse, the strong US economy and interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve have boosted the dollar.
A strong dollar makes commodities such as crude oil more expensive in international markets and reduces demand. Trump wants oil to be priced as low as possible to help bolster the US economy, which is clearly under strain, and to facilitate sales of crude abroad. But with a looming global oil shortage just a few years away due to a lack of upstream investment, it is incumbent on global oil producers to consider the long term in their output decisions.

* Faisal Mrza is an energy and oil market adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Reach him on Twitter: @faisalmrza