State Street banker sees pace of reforms in Arabian Gulf accelerating

Illustration by Luis Grañena
Updated 12 August 2018
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State Street banker sees pace of reforms in Arabian Gulf accelerating

  • Laurina began his career in banking at the Bank of New York’s Brussels and London offices
  • He believes that the pace of economic growth in the region will continue to accelerate

The rapid economic changes taking place in the Arabian Gulf economies require a cadre of top global financial institutions to help see them through, and State Street Corporation fits the bill completely.

The 226-year-old American financial group, ranked among the biggest banking businesses in the world, recently joined the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) through its investment banking and asset management unit State Street Global Advisers (SSGA), cementing a presence in the region it has held for 26 years.

Emmanuel Laurina, the 43-year-old Belgian who heads up the Middle East business for State Street, told Arab News that the UAE was a good place to be based to exploit the new economic environment in the region, and especially the business opportunities in Saudi Arabia, undergoing rapid change as a result of the Vision 2030 strategy to diversify away from oil dependency.

“The DIFC is a well-regulated global financial center through which we can accommodate those clients for whom it is most appropriate. SSGA has had a presence in the Middle East since 1992, and opening a DIFC presence is a natural complement to that business.

“We currently serve the needs of all our Middle East and Africa clients from our Dubai and Abu Dhabi offices. Saudi Arabia has always been a key contributor to our business in the region and we look forward to further deepening our presence and business in the Kingdom,” he added.

Laurina began his career in banking at the Bank of New York’s Brussels and London offices, before moving to State Street in 2005, transferring to Dubai eight years later to head up the Middle East and Africa business. 

He believes that the pace of economic growth in the region will continue to accelerate. The bank’s analysts see UAE growth at 2.5 percent this year, up from 0.5 percent in 2017, and have marked in 1.6 percent for Saudi Arabia, a jump from last year’s 0.9 percent, while the region as a whole is looking at 2.6 percent (up from 1.8 percent).

The recent stability in the oil market is the main reason for the forecast improvement in gross domestic product, and SSGA believes the current good run in oil is likely to continue. “Governments and central banks should be able to escape the tough economic decisions they have faced over the past few years,” he said.

That will be especially good for Saudi Arabia as it seeks foreign investment to help fund the economic changes under way in the Kingdom, boosted by recent upgrades to its financial markets to emerging market status.

“SSGA is very positive about the reform agenda in Saudi Arabia and the entire Vision 2030 plan. While the economic environment remains challenging, we feel that the reforms to companies, markets, and investment regulations are wholly positive.

“Of all the countries in the Gulf, Saudi represents one of the best opportunities for investors, and we are ready to support clients not only in equities, as the Tadawul opens up, but also in the debt markets, an important factor in the modernization plans of the Kingdom,” Laurina said.

Those modernization plans include the privatization of large chunks of the Kingdom’s state-dominated economy, including Saudi Aramco, the biggest oil company in the world. The partial sale of some of Aramco’s shares via an initial public offering (IPO) has been delayed, but most financial experts believe some form of sell-off will eventually take place.

“We made the point recently that the non-Aramco privatization plans were equally — if not more — important to the success of the Saudi reform agenda. These include many state assets whose valuation is relatively easy to assess and where there are clear templates for private-sector participation.

“In short, there is some lower-hanging fruit in the area of privatization and we believe this will be forthcoming. Above all, for Saudi Arabia, it is more important to see this program through correctly, rather than urgently, as the reform impetus is more valuable than the actual proceeds,” he said.

On Aramco, other options have recently emerged as an alternative to full-blown privatization, including raising debt in international markets and the multibillion-dollar acquisition of Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC). Laurina sees sense in considering these possibilities.

“The potential Aramco IPO is huge, complex, and far from straightforward. We are not surprised, and indeed we applaud, the pause for reflection that appears to be taking place. 

“While the delay of IPO may have disappointed some, it may be a welcome move,” he said.

Illustration by Luis Grañena

Emerging market equity investors have had a short time to adjust their portfolios for the inclusion of Saudi Arabia in the three main indices, Laurina explained. “Aramco’s IPO would likely lead to a larger weight to Saudi Arabia and lead to further turnover to fund that increase. A delay of the IPO to a later date would give investors time to adjust and accommodate the new IPO when this is issued,” he said.

“For an institution of Aramco’s size, any debt fundraising brings complexities: If Aramco was to buy the full stake Public Investment Fund holds in SABIC, for example, and fund it entirely out of debt issuance, it would be one of the biggest debt issuances ever from any corporate, and would catapult Aramco into a top-three spot in the EM debt indices. This alone brings new issues, and so again we would counsel a cautious approach,” he said.

The global investor view of the Gulf region wavers between enthusiasm for the economic opportunities presented by reform and privatization, and concern about the effects on investment prospects from geopolitical tensions, such as the current stand-off with Qatar and the increasing possibility that confrontation between Iran and the US will lead to trade dislocation in the region. 

Laurina is alert to the risks, but sanguine on the overall investment climate. “Having been in the region for 26 years, through two Gulf wars and the Arab Spring, SSGA is acutely aware of the geopolitical drivers and risks in this region. 

“But we remain positive on the investment prospects in the Gulf: Emerging market status is going to be a major driver of equity investment; Saudi reform, China’s Belt and Road initiative, and a stable oil price should combine to maintain our upbeat outlook on the region, in spite of regional tensions,” he said.

The Middle East, of course, is an increasingly important part of the international financial and economic system, and is subject to the swings and roundabouts of global forces. Some experts have forecast challenging times ahead, as the US economy tries to maintain the impressive growth of recent years amid the threat of all-out trade war with the second biggest global economy, China, as well as strains within European economies. 

“We predict that global economic performance is likely to become less uniform in the next few years. It is expected that the US will outperform if meaningful trade sanctions are imposed on China, the European Union, Japan and Mexico. Also, a ‘No Deal Brexit’ is likely to have a negative impact on the EU,” he said. 

On the US investment scene, some analysts have wondered whether soaring stock market indices — the “Trump boom” — will eventually have to give way.

“The US economy is increasingly driven by investment and technology-related growth, and this should drive productivity improvement. This, in turn, will help make the Trump boom sustainable,” Laurina said.

What does this mean for the economic prospects of the Arabian Gulf, still dominated by energy revenues? 

“The global oil trade should be relatively unaffected by trade wars. However, oil exporters may see some fallout in demand if there is economic slowdown in trade-impacted countries and regions. It is also worth noting that the US is no longer a significant source of demand — it has scaled back on oil imports over the years, for example — and currently generates a surplus in its balance of trade and services with Saudi Arabia,”
he added.

SSGA’s 12-strong team in the Middle East — now based in Dubai but with a branch office also in Abu Dhabi — looks set to grow as the asset management business expands. “The Middle East and Africa market is extremely dynamic and demanding, and we believe that only those firms that are nimble and agile enough will be successful in the long run,” Laurina said.

 


Dubai property developer Damac on hunt for land in Saudi Arabia

Hussain Sajwani
Updated 18 March 2019
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Dubai property developer Damac on hunt for land in Saudi Arabia

  • Brexit a “concern” for UK property market says Sajwani
  • Developer mulls investing “up to £500 million” on London project

LONDON: The Dubai-listed developer Damac says it is scouting for additional plots of land in Saudi Arabia, both in established cities and the Kingdom’s emerging giga-projects such as Neom.
Hussain Sajwani, chairman of Damac Properties, also said the company would look to invest up to £500 million ($660 million) on a second development in the UK, and that it is on track to deliver a record 7,000 or more units this year.
Amid a slowing property market in Dubai, Damac’s base, the developer is eying Saudi Arabia as a potential ground for expansion for its high-spec residential projects.
Damac has one development in Jeddah, and a twin-tower project in Riyadh — and Sajwani said it is looking for additional plots in the Kingdom.
“It’s a big market. It is changing, it is opening up, so we see a potential there … We are looking,” he said.
“In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is the biggest economy … They have some very ambitious projects, like the Neom city and other large projects. We’re watching those and studying them very carefully.”
The $500 billion Neom project, which was announced in 2017, is set to be a huge economic zone with residential, commercial and tourist facilities on the Red Sea coast.
Sajwani said doing business in Saudi Arabia was “a bit more difficult or complicated” that the UAE, but said the country is opening up, citing moves to allow women to drive and reopen cinemas.
He was speaking to Arab News in Damac’s London sales office, opposite the Harrods department store in Knightsbridge. The office, kitted out in plush Versace furnishings, is selling units at Damac’s first development in the UK, the Damac Tower Nine Elms London.
The 50-storey development is in a new urban district south of the River Thames, which is also home to the US Embassy and the famous Battersea Power Station, which is being redeveloped as a residential and commercial property.
Work on Damac's tower is underway and is due to complete in late 2020 or early 2021, Sajwani said.
“We have sold more than 60 percent of the project,” he said. “It’s very mixed, we have (buyers) from the UK, from Asia, the Middle East.”
Damac’s first London project was launched in 2015, the year before the referendum on the UK exiting the EU — the result of which has had a knock-on effect on the London property market.
“Definitely Brexit has cause a lot of concern, people are not clear where the situation will go. Overall, the market has suffered because of Brexit,” Sajwani said.
“It’s going to be difficult for the coming two years at least … unless (the UK decides) to stay in the EU.”
Despite the ongoing uncertainty over Brexit, Sajwani said Damac was looking for additional plots of land in London, both in the “golden triangle” — the pricey areas of Mayfair, Belgravia and Knightsbridge, which are popular with Gulf investors — and new residential districts like Nine Elms.
Sajwani is considering an investment of “up to £500 million” on a new project in the UK capital.
“We are looking aggressively, and spending a lot of time … finding other opportunities,” he said. “Our appetite for London is there.”
Damac is also considering other international property markets for expansion, including parts of Europe and North American cities like Toronto, Boston, New York and Miami, Sajwani said.
The international drive by Damac comes, however, amid a tough property market in the developer’s home market of Dubai.
Damac in February reported that its 2018 profits fell by nearly 60 percent, with its fourth-quarter profit tumbling by 87 percent, according to Reuters calculations.
Sajwani — whose company attracted headlines for its partnership with the Trump Organization for two golf courses in Dubai — does not see any immediate recovery in the emirate’s property market, or Damac’s financial results.
“(With) the market being soft, prices being under pressure, we are part of the market — we are not going to do better than last year,” he said. “This year and next year are going to be difficult years. But it’s a great opportunity for the buyers.”
But the developer said Dubai was “very strong fundamentally,” citing factors like its advanced infrastructure, safety and security, and low taxes.
In 2018, Damac delivered over 4,100 units — a record for the company — and this year, despite the difficult market, it plans to hand over even more.
“We’re expecting north of 7,000,” Sajwani said. “This year will be another record.”