UAE banks benefit from US Fed rate rises

Emirates NBD bank reported one of the largest increases in interest income this year. (Reuters)
Updated 18 November 2018
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UAE banks benefit from US Fed rate rises

  • With the dirham pegged to the US dollar, the actions of the US central bank have a direct impact on interest rates charged by UAE banks
  • With another Fed rate hike potentially on the horizon in December, analysts said the Gulf country’s banks could find it harder to keep ramping up the cost of borrowing

LONDON: Banks in the UAE are reaping the benefits of the US Federal Reserve’s three rate rises so far this year, with healthy increases in net interest incomes helping bolster profits.
With the dirham pegged to the US dollar, the actions of the US central bank have a direct impact on interest rates charged by UAE banks.
The UAE Central Bank last increased its repo rate by 25 basis points and raised interest rates on certificates of deposit on Sept. 26 to bring it in line with the Fed’s earlier move.
With another Fed rate hike potentially on the horizon in December, analysts said the Gulf country’s banks could find it harder to keep ramping up the cost of borrowing for their corporates or individual clients.
“Due to ample liquidity in the system, supported by high crude prices, banks are struggling to pass the rate hikes to customers,” said Chiradeep Ghosh, research analyst at Sico Bank in Bahrain.

 

 “We expect UAE banks to report only a modest (net interest margin) expansion, despite a likely three to four more Fed rate hikes by the end of 2019.”
In the last reported quarter, UAE banks revealed increases in net interest income of varying degrees.
Banks’ profitability is typically driven by net interest income, which accounted for 69 percent of the UAE sector’s total net revenue in 2017, according to a Oct. 3 Moody’s Investors Services report.
Dubai-headquartered Emirates NBD reported one of the largest increases in interest income this year.
The bank posted net profits of 7.7 billion dirhams ($2.1 billion) for first nine months of the year, 24 percent up year-on-year. This increase was supported by 9.5 billion dirhams in net interest income, a 19 percent increase on the previous year. In contrast, non-interest income dropped 2 percent for the same time period.
First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) reported smaller increases, with net interest income reaching 9.75 billion dirhams for the first nine months of the year, marginally up by 0.1 percent.
The increase was slightly more noticeable in the third quarter alone, jumping by 1.2 percent compared to Q3 last year, according to its Oct. 23 statement.
FAB said net interest income was “broadly stable” due to “strong business volumes and rate hike benefits,” according to a bank presentation.
Dubai-based Mashreq Bank said its net interest income, combined with Islamic financing income, climbed by 4.5 percent in the first nine months year-on-year to reach 2.8 billion dirhams, according to a Oct. 21 filing.
Analysts said the increase in the banks’ interest-related income has helped to counter some of the risk of rising funding costs looming over banks.
“We expect that rising interest rates will increase system-wide net interest margins as banks’ higher gross yields outweigh the increase in funding costs,” Moody’s said.
Continued rate hikes could, however, start to affect the financing costs for corporate and individual borrowers and be a drag on economic growth, analysts said.
“Rate hikes would definitely dent the borrowing appetite of UAE corporations and the banks would not be left with much option but to lower their spread over interbank rate which they charge corporates,” said Ghosh.
“The capacity of UAE companies to bear higher debt burden would eventually depend on the economic activities in the UAE. A weak economic environment, along with a surge in higher funding cost may lead to pick up in delinquencies,” he said.
Ehsan Khoman, head of regional research and strategy at MUFG, based in Dubai, said the country should be able to absorb the impact of higher interest rates for now.
“Rising interest rates are unlikely to derail the UAE’s benign economic growth outlook in the near-term. The impact of higher rates should be more than offset by government stimulus. Having said that, it’s an additional factor to consider that GDP growth will remain weak by historical standards,” he said.
Some UAE companies have already reported higher financing costs in their latest Q3 results.
The UAE-based United Food Company (UFC) said on Nov. 5 that finance costs paid in the first nine months of the year reached 535,742 dirhams, compared to the lower amount of 364,568 dirhams recorded in the same period in 2017.
Dubai Investments said on Nov. 5 that finance expenses for the first nine months of the year reached 133.6 million dirhams compared to 69.4 million dirhams.

FASTFACTS

BACKGROUND

The US Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates three times this year. It left rates unchanged in November but is likely to make another hike next month.


As worries about populism in Europe rise, investors bet on stock market volatility

Updated 22 March 2019
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As worries about populism in Europe rise, investors bet on stock market volatility

  • More than 350 million EU citizens will head to the polls between May 23 and 26 to elect a new Parliament
  • The vote will shape the future of the bloc amid a backlash against immigration and years of austerity

LONDON: Investors are betting on heightened political uncertainty and greater volatility in European stock markets ahead of European Parliament elections in May amid growing concerns about rising populism.
In one of the first concrete signs in financial markets that investors are bracing for political instability, VSTOXX futures , which reflect investor sentiment and economic uncertainty, have jumped in recent weeks.
While the classic gauge of fear — known as implied volatility, which tracks demand for options in European stocks — is currently at 15.68, futures that bet on the same thing over the coming months show a pronounced jump.
That’s because investors have piled on trades that bet on big swings in stocks as election day nears.
Implied volatility for futures contracts expiring in May show a pronounced jump to 16.8, compared with 15.35 in April. The contracts measure the 30-day implied volatility of the euro zone STOXX 50 index.
“We are seeing a bit of a kink around May when we have European elections and we have this wave of populism,” said Edmund Shing, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas.

Looming elections
More than 350 million EU citizens will head to the polls between May 23 and 26 to elect a new Parliament, a vote that will shape the future of the bloc amid a backlash against immigration and years of austerity.
Mainstream center-left and center-right lawmakers may lose control of the legislature for the first time, as euroskeptic and far-right candidates build support.
Herve Guyon, Societe Generale’s head of European equity derivatives flow strategy and solutions, said the rise of populism had triggered a recent flurry of speculative trades.
“Political uncertainty might be coming from the EU rather than the United States. We’ve seen investors doing very large trades to benefit from an increase in volatility around these events,” he said.
“We as a bank don’t expect the elections to be a massive game-changer. The populists won’t get enough to disrupt the political system, but we do note some investors did take some positions on this event.”
The implied volatility is still well below levels seen in late 2018 when global stock markets were routed amid worries about rising interest rates, slowing economic growth and the trade war between Beijing and Washington.
In late December, it shot to above 26, its highest since February.
But the flurry of activity suggests investors are seeking out new opportunities after a slide in implied volatility across major asset classes.
Edward Park, deputy chief investment officer at asset manager Brooks MacDonald, said some of the activity may also be due to persistent uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union as the Brexit date of March 29 nears.
This year, volatility across currency, fixed income and stocks markets has plunged as the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have taken dovish policy stances.
The Deutsche Bank currency volatility indicator hit multi-year lows this week, while the proxy for fixed income volatility is languishing at all-time lows.
In stocks, the Cboe volatility index, Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge,” fell to its weakest in six months this week.
“There’s been a cross-asset volatility crash — in euro-dollar, US rates and equities — in the aftermath of (ECB President Mario) Draghi’s and (Fed Chairman Jerome) Powell’s comments and the expectation of lower rates for longer,” said Guyon.