China oil demand helps Saudi Arabia challenge Russia’s export crown

Fresh demand from new Chinese refineries could boost the country’s Saudi oil imports, nudging the OPEC giant back to the top spot as China’s biggest supplier. (AFP)
Updated 30 November 2018
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China oil demand helps Saudi Arabia challenge Russia’s export crown

  • Demand stirred up by new Chinese refiners pushing the Kingdom back into contention with Russia as top supplier to the world’s largest oil buyer
  • Saudi Aramco to sign five crude supply agreements that will take its 2019 contract totals with Chinese buyers to 1.67 million bpd.

SINGAPORE: Saudi Arabia is set to expand its market share in China this year for the first time since 2012, with demand stirred up by new Chinese refiners pushing the Kingdom back into contention with Russia as top supplier to the world’s largest oil buyer.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest global oil exporter, has been surpassed by Russia as top crude supplier to China in the past two years as private “teapot” refiners and a new pipeline drove up demand for Russian oil.
Now fresh demand from new refineries starting up in 2019 could increase China’s Saudi oil imports by between 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 700,000 bpd, nudging the OPEC kingpin back toward the top, analysts say.
Saudi Aramco said last week it will sign five crude supply agreements that will take its 2019 contract totals with Chinese buyers to 1.67 million bpd.
“With the recent crude oil supply agreements and potential increase of refinery capacity, the Saudis could overtake the Russians and reclaim (the) crown as the biggest crude exporter to China,” Rystad Energy analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu said.
Saudi Arabia has already gained ground this year. China imported 1.04 million bpd of Saudi crude in the first 10 months of 2018, China customs data showed. This is equivalent to 11.5 percent of total Chinese imports, up from 11 percent in 2017, Reuters calculations showed.
Saudi Arabia’s market share in China could jump to nearly 17 percent next year, if buyers requested full contractual volumes, analysts from Rystad Energy and Refinitiv said, while growth in Russian supply to China could slow.
China imported 1.39 million bpd of Russian crude in January-October this year, about 15 percent of total Chinese imports, customs data showed. Russia had a 14 percent share at 1.2 million bpd in 2017.
“We expect Chinese imports of Russian crude to remain at a similar rate in 2019 as a large share of these Russian barrels are imported via pipeline,” Refinitiv analyst Mark Tay said.
The biggest boost to Saudi exports to China comes from contracts inked with new refineries starting up this year and next, owned by companies other than state oil giants Sinopec or PetroChina.
The contracts include 130,000 bpd to Dalian Hengli Petrochemical and up to 170,000 bpd to Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp, each of which has a 400,000-bpd refinery.
Saudi Aramco has also agreed to increase Sinochem Corp’s supplies, which will be processed at its Quanzhou and Hongrun refineries. Sinopec, PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corp. have all kept their term Saudi volumes for next year unchanged.
Beijing-based consultancy SIA Energy expects Saudi crude imports to rise by 300,000 bpd in 2019, raising its market share
to 13.7 percent, but leaving it behind Russia.
“We expect lower Saudi crude demand from Hengli and Rongsheng as it is unlikely for them to run their refineries at full rate in 2019,” analyst Seng Yick Tee said.
A source familiar with Aramco’s export plans said there is tremendous appetite from China’s independents, and that it needed to be more aggressive in its marketing strategy.
The state oil company did move more swiftly to seal the most recent deals than it used to in the past, industry sources said.
Aramco’s first deal with Hengli was to supply 20 million barrels of crude, about 55,000 bpd, in 2018, said a senior source. “Hengli executed the 2018 deal nicely, which helped build trust,” he said.
Hengli is designed to process 90 percent Saudi crude, a mix of Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, while the remaining 10 percent is Brazilian Marlim crude. Rongsheng’s plant is identical to Hengli, the industry sources said.
The sources spoke on condition of anonymity.
Aramco is also supplying PetroChina’s refinery in China’s southwestern Yunnan province with about 4 million barrels a month of crude via a pipeline from Myanmar between July and November, Eikon data showed, although sources said talks for Saudi Arabia to acquire a stake in the refinery have stalled.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Monday the company will push to expand its market share in China and is still looking for new refining deals there despite OPEC’s likely limits on output next year.
Saudi Aramco will supply up to 70 percent of the oil required at its 300,000-bpd joint venture refinery in Malaysia with Petronas. Between China and Malaysia alone, Saudi Arabia will have to increase exports to
Asia by more than 500,000 bpd next year.
This comes as OPEC is discussing production cuts of as much as
1.4 million bpd for next year to prop up oil prices.
Between balancing global supplies and increasing market in Asia, Aramco may decide to “forgo market share in other markets like the US, where the surge in domestic production will make it difficult for the Saudis to retain market share anyway,” Rystad’s Rodriguez-Masiu said.
Saudi’s oil shipments to the US have risen recently to above
1 million bpd, but US output is also increasing, said the source familiar with Saudi Aramco’s export plans.


Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co. plans up to $1.07bn sukuk sale this year

Updated 23 April 2019
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Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co. plans up to $1.07bn sukuk sale this year

  • The plan by SRC, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign Public Investment Fund, comes as it prepares to purchase more home loan portfolios
  • SRC, formed in 2017, is also keen to tap foreign institutional investors for its debt sale this year

RIYADH: Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co. (SRC), modelled on US mortgage finance firm Fannie Mae, aims to issue up to 4 billion riyals ($1.07 billion) of long-term sukuk this year, its chief executive said on Tuesday.

The plan by SRC, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign Public Investment Fund, comes as it prepares to purchase more home loan portfolios from mortgage financing companies and banks to boost the Kingdom’s secondary mortgage market.

SRC, formed in 2017, is also keen to tap foreign institutional investors for its debt sale this year, Fabrice Susini told Reuters in an interview.

“Our strategy is clearly to tap the market twice this year,” he said. “We are really looking at probably issuing something between ... 2 and 4 billion riyal that we may be issuing in two tranches.

He said SRC was looking at sukuk in the 10 to 15-year range, to help minimize refinancing risks. “Generally speaking we are trying to issue as long as possible,” Susini said.

He said the company was assessing whether it could also issue bonds in currencies other than the local riyal.

In March, SRC completed a 750 million riyal sukuk issue with multiple tenors, under a program that allows it to issue up to 11 billion riyals of local currency denominated Islamic bonds.

“The rule of the game for us is, like many projects across the Kingdom, attract liquidity from foreign investors,” Susini said.

He said SRC had spent 1.2 billion riyals from its balance sheet buying mortgages from local mortgage financing companies and provided liquidity to these firms.

It has also signed initial accords with several commercial banks to acquire housing mortgage portfolios.

Saudi Arabia’s housing ministry is targeting the mortgage market to reach a total value of 502 billion riyals by 2020 from around 300 billion riyals now.

The government wants to increase activity in the real estate market as it moves to revitalize the economy and is taking steps to reform the sector as part of its 2030 reform plan.

It has been working with developers and local banks to counter a shortage of affordable housing — one of the country’s biggest social and economic problems. Saudi Arabia wants 60 percent of its nationals to own homes by 2020, up from 47 percent in 2016.

The size of real estate financing relative to its gross domestic product is 5 percent in Saudi Arabia compared to 69 percent in the United States, 74 percent in the United Kingdom and 43 pct in Canada, the housing ministry has said.

“The goal of SRC in this market was to make sure that we will be able to refinance at least around 10 percent of the market in 2020, and 20 percent of the market by 2028,” Susini told Reuters.