DHAHRAN, 27 May — If the Internet has opened up new horizons, it has also put a big question mark over the existence of certain institutions. Until now, those institutions were considered providers of essential services. They have now found themselves on the verge of extinction; many others have also felt their survival threatened. And so a debate began: “Will the Internet replace those institutions?”
Let’s examine the impact of the Internet on a few well-established institutions. The foremost sufferer is certainly the postal service in many countries. The advent of fax and the use of courier services had already eroded the growth of this sector and the Internet is now proving to be the last straw.
Countries like India where the majority of the population lives in villages may not yet feel the effect of the Internet on their postal service but many smaller and more urbanized nations have already reported a sharp decline in postal revenues. E-mails have already resulted in a sharp fall in postal stamp sales in some countries. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the decline is said to be nearly 30 percent. Other GCC countries have also had similar experiences. Even in Europe and America, a sharp decline has been reported though exact figures are not available. Experts agree that some aspects of the postal service are virtually finished.
Films and TV have already accepted the change and now they portray a new way of life. In an American TV serial, a character who wants a neurosurgeon looks on the Internet. The entire plot of an Indian film revolves around a couple who have never met except on a chat site. All of these are a reflection of changing values in modern society.
There was a big debate beginning in the early 1970s about whether the electronic media will replace newspapers. The debate has somewhat died down; however, to many “electronic media is more like fast food while the newspaper is an elaborate seven-course meal.”
The appearance of the Internet has again started the debate: “Will the Internet affect the print media?” To an extent, yes. For instance, the sale of foreign magazines and newspapers in the Kingdom has sharply declined. At the same time, newspapers in India, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia say that their circulation has been unaffected by the Internet despite their going online.
The reason they give is people’s attachment to the newspapers. The way things appear at the moment, the Internet will certainly improve the quality of news coverage but it will not affect the sale of newspapers and will never replace them.
It is important to note that the publishing sector will have to undergo drastic changes and redefine its place in view of the Internet and the easy access to information by Internet users. Encyclopedias, directories, dictionaries and guides may become redundant unless they change their formats and become more user-friendly and easier to store.
The other sector which in the long run may suffer an adverse effect due to the Internet is the market place. Predictions are that by the year 2005, e-commerce will consist of an annual turnover of $5 trillion. These ring a danger bell for merchants who own shops. They should be aware, however, that the change will not occur overnight. People have to accustom themselves to new habits and ways of shopping. In any case, e-commerce itself is currently being reviewed by experts who are apprehensive of its success.
In addition to the above examples, there is another long list of institutions which over a period of time will face similar threats. This list includes educational institutions, auction houses, travel agencies, real estate firms, the stock exchanges etc.
All these transactions could be carried out on the Net. The questions is: How long will the changes take to happen?