On the occasions of the Independence Days of India and Pakistan, I sat down to research and write articles on the two nations. It was planned that both articles would be published today. They were to give a good perspective on the current situation in both countries and the challenges they would face in coming years. The foundations of the articles would be interviews with prominent members of each community living in the Kingdom. After three days of interviews it was clear that the project was doomed.
The Indians and Pakistanis I spoke with were well-educated and of high caliber but their views about their nations were generally unrealistic. In addition, several expressed a shocking level of hatred for their neighbors, which does not bode well for the future. Desperate to get some sort of clear picture about the two countries I turned to outside sources. I spent a night reviewing the World Bank’s World Development Report 2000/2001 titled “Attacking Poverty.” It was depressive. Then I moved on to the Central Intelligence Agency’s “World Fact Book 2000.” It simply confirmed the facts I’d already read. I also consulted the International Database of the US Census Bureau. The numbers were sobering at the very least. As the interdependence of all countries on our planet increases, I fear what the policies of these nations will mean to the global community in coming years.
The most important comment I can make to the citizens of both India and Pakistan is that they must stop regional comparisons, and begin judging their development in an international context. It is urgent that both nations wake up and smell the sewage in their own backyards, because there are plenty of signs to indicate that their futures aren’t coming up roses.
In all databases, India and Pakistan are classified as low-income nations. In India, 86.2 percent of the population exists on $2 per day or less. In Pakistan, the figure is 84.7 percent. Each nation is facing serious challenges.
Fundamental concerns in India include the ongoing dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir, massive overpopulation, environmental degradation, extensive poverty and ethnic strife. India has made impressive gains in economic investment and output, but a global economic slowdown could hit some sectors hard.
Economic policies and overpopulation are pushing India toward environmental catastrophe. Environmental problems in India include extreme deforestation, soil erosion, overgrazing, desertification, air pollution from industrial effluents and vehicle emissions and water pollution from raw sewage and runoff of agricultural pesticides. Tap water is not potable throughout the country and a huge and growing population is seriously overstraining natural resources. Only 46 percent of India’s urban population has access to sanitation.
Environmental degradation is already affecting the quality of life in India and will cause increasing damage to the economy especially in the agricultural sector. India has made large strides toward increasing its agricultural productivity but the rate of arable hectares per capita continues to fall. Part of the gains in agricultural productivity are attributed to irrigation but India’s freshwater resources are limited with only 1,947 cubic meters per capita which includes river flows from neighboring countries. More than a third of the population is too poor to be able to afford an adequate diet. For children born in India in the year 2001, life expectancy is 62.86 years and the infant mortality rate is 63.19 per thousand live births. The first figure is too low; the second is too high.
India has strengthened its economy in recent years by focusing on the recovery of its industrial sector and promoting high technology exports. The continued success in these areas is threatened by sectarian and regional violence. India needs a highly trained workforce to man its advanced industries and services but it is wrestling with adult illiteracy rates of 33 percent for men and 57 percent for women. Despite the urgent need for additional educational resources, in 1999 India spent $10 billion or 2.7 percent of GDP on its military. It spent 9.2 percent of GDP on social services for its citizens including education, health, social security, housing, welfare and community amenities.
Pakistan’s situation is no cause for celebration either. It is also destroying its land and water resources. The majority of its population does not have access to potable water and despite its lower population, only 53 percent of urban dwellers have access to sanitation. Deforestation, soil erosion, desertification and industrial development are all reducing the available amount of arable land. In addition, the nation’s high population growth of 2.5 percent has put a heavy strain on all resources. The life expectancy for children born in Pakistan in the year 2001 is 61.45 years, but the infant mortality rate is 80.50 of every thousand live births.
Neither figure is acceptable.
Pakistan’s internal political disputes, lack of foreign investment, costly confrontation with India and heavy borrowing have wrecked its economy. Foreign loans and grants provide approximately 25 percent of government revenue, but debt service obligations total nearly 50 percent of government expenditure. To create some economic breathing space, the current government is in talks with the Paris Club members and other bilateral creditors on debt rescheduling and they are also working with the IMF on future disbursements from its $1.56 billion bailout package initiated in 1999.
The Pakistani government has an ambitious economic agenda, which includes measures to widen the tax net, privatize public sector assets and improve its balance of trade position. Privatization has been touted as the cornerstone of economic revival, but the nation may have difficulty attracting new investors until it receives more positive endorsement from international agencies and proves that its plans have substance. Like India, Pakistan also plans to expand its industrial and service sectors but it faces a serious education problem. In Pakistan, only 58 percent of men and 29 percent of women are literate. Even though it cannot match its neighbor in total military spending, in 1999 Pakistan still spent 3.9 percent of GDP on this sector. It allocated less than that amount for both health and education.
As I learned more about both India and Pakistan, I felt it was urgent to give each nation some sort of inspiration for the future. In my Independence Day interviews neither group, Indians nor Pakistanis, seemed able to listen to one another, so I searched for pearls of wisdom in the words left behind by their forefathers.
For the Indians, remember M.K. Gandhi’s words, “We must be the change we wish to see.”
For the Pakistanis, refer to Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s speech from 1943, “Here I should like to give a warning to the landlords and capitalists. The exploitation of the masses has gone into their blood. They have forgotten the lessons of Islam. Do you visualize that millions have been exploited and cannot get one meal a day? If this is the idea of Pakistan, I would not have it.”
Several histories on the independence of India and Pakistan have stated that the true purpose of the founding of these nations was that the West foresaw that such a step would capitalize on the ethnic and religious differences between them. Due to continuing military struggles and violence in the region, the peoples of the subcontinent would remain in poverty and perhaps eventually destroy each other rather than becoming a united superpower and a threat to the West. Whether such thoughts have value or not each reader will have to judge, but several people mentioned to me that they considered it to be a major step forward that their nations had learned the secrets of nuclear warfare. I suspect that their opinions are not in the minority. What is certainly true is that the economies of both nations are in the grip of the West. India owes $98 billion in external debt. Pakistan owes $32 billion. Even with the lower dollar amount, Pakistan’s debt burden is actually double that of India’s. Having sold themselves to the moneylenders, leaders of both nations will have to decide how best to allocate remaining resources. Will they buy books or bombs? Will they strive for what is best for the future of all their people or will they continue to focus on religious, ethnic, racial and provincial prejudices, and eventually tear their souls to bits?
In all the interviews I did preparing for this article the saddest comment came from an Indian, who when asked to discuss the significance of August 15th replied, “It’s just another day.” He’s not alone in his indifference. Millions of people from the subcontinent have given up on their nations and would rather live almost anywhere but in their homelands. It made me wonder if emigration is the only goal both Indians and Pakistanis have in common after 54 years.