JEDDAH, 3 October — The next Afghan war will achieve much. At its end the Muslim youth will have symbolic martyrs that will shine as brightly as, Che Guevara, the symbol of the angry Left. The Americans will get revenge for the victims of Black Tuesday and their injured pride will be healed. And what about the people of Afghanistan? Even they will triumph. After more than a quarter of a century of violence in their land, the wars will cease.
The world will then witness serious attempts to “force” a final settlement of the Middle East’s crises. It could be the beginning of real endeavors to include the Arab and Muslim world in the new global order. Optimist that I am, I hope for even more. Perhaps the coming war could be the war that will end all wars in our troubled region.
It could be a magnificent end for a minor mission that hardly requires all this military and political mobilization. It is most likely that the war will begin on the green plains of northern Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance against the Taleban may have already started this military campaign. They have already achieved rapid victories around Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif.
Contrary to the warnings released by many Arab analysts, the United States has clearly stated that it is not targeting Afghanistan as a country and nation. Its plan at the outset is to reduce the Taleban regime to nothing more than a “militia.” It is also expected that the US will avoid the random bombings that are supported by hard-liners such as the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, the ultra-right senator Jesse Helms, and allies such as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
It seems that moderation and common sense have prevailed in Washington. The decision has been made for limited strikes. Attacks will only be on selected targets. This is reflected in Colin Powell’s statement, “The military operations will be of lesser magnitude than those during the Gulf War.”
The military mission will be initiated by deploying airborne or land forces, along with groups from the Corps of Engineers, in northern Afghanistan across the border from Tajikistan. These forces will be received warmly, perhaps photographed being greeted by Afghan children lining the streets waving flowers in order to promote the “right” image to the public. The minister of foreign affairs of the ousted government, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, will ensure the use of such an opportunity to promote the idea of Afghanistan as a peace-loving nation.
The people of northern Afghanistan, along with other minorities have suffered under the Taleban’s rule. For the northern Tajiks, the Americans will be perceived as liberators as they were in Kuwait.
The US forces will find the geography of the region comforting and they will soon feel at home. The Tajiks will be quite cooperative with the Americans. They believe that the Taleban and their ally, Bin Laden, were behind the plot that killed their leader, Ahmed Shah Masood. They are eager for revenge and will take it however they can.
So the Americans will be able to establish their primary base in the country without bloodshed. After that the Americans will have two options to accomplish their mission: Do it alone or use the manpower provided by the Northern Alliance to do it. If they turn to the Northern army, they will have to provide their new allies with air cover, Russian-made rifles, tanks and other military equipment, advanced communication systems and accurate “intelligence.” Interestingly, the Russians have already started playing a backup role in a race with the Americans to secure a foothold in any future relationship with Afghanistan. If the coming military action is actually fought by the Northern army, the US may hope that internationally, the fighting will simply be perceived as a continuation of the civil war that has raged in Afghanistan since 1978. The weather in October is suitable for military operations. Such action, however, must be concluded quickly before winter sets in.
This is not a problem for the Americans. They want to get in and out quickly in any case. No one wants a repeat of the Somalia fiasco. The Americans want Bin Laden. Once they have him “dead or alive,” they will declare victory. They will definitely take a few members of the Al-Qaeda network back to the United States for trial in the courts of New York. This is necessary for political purposes so the politicians can show the American public that justice has been served. It is exactly what the Romans used to do in the old days when they took captives back to Rome with them after long campaigns in distant lands.
The Americans will want to leave behind a very pro-Western government in Afghanistan. Since their campaign will be brief, they will not have time to erect schools, hospitals or other infrastructure. But they will promise both direct governmental assistance and the future assistance of numerous Western NGOs. Afghans will be grateful for the aspirins and flour they are immediately offered. The time is right. The people of Afghanistan are exhausted. They are tired of killings and famine and these latest developments have reduced their hopes and desires to the minimum. The promise of bread, water and peace would be sufficient to establish cooperation between Afghanistan’s deposed Islamic government, headed by Burhanuddin Rabbani and the Americans. Rabbani will most likely anoint the Americans as saviors of Afghanistan, producing the photo-op required to convince Arab-Islamic public opinion.
The US, in this case, will appear as a cooperative ally for pious Afghans rather than as invaders. In addition, the new leaders of Afghanistan are proven Mujahedeen, including Rabbani. After all, he was one of the jihad leaders against the Soviets when they were in Afghanistan. In exchange for his support, the Americans would give Rabbani the legitimacy that he largely lost when he was ousted from the presidential palace in 1996, escaping the advancing army of the Taleban forces.
Propaganda will be very important in this limited military campaign. The Americans will have to finance broadcasts from radio stations dedicated to convincing the Afghans that the US is there as a friend, not an invader.
Intellectuals from Rabbani’s party “Jammiat Islami” can man these radio stations. In fact, round-the-clock transmission will likely be possible because the Americans will have no difficulty in recruiting the large number of Afghan intellectuals, writers, clerics and poets who are living in exile. The task of the Persian radio station will be an easy one because it is directed at the people of the north who are ready for change and Persian is the language spoken by most of the people of northern Afghanistan.
Broadcasting to Pashtuns will be more difficult because they are known for their stubbornness and their readiness to engage in war. Perhaps this radio station could broadcast long hours of Pashtun songs that were banned by the Taleban. The Americans can also make use of the neglected Sufi Mujahedeen groups, headed by their leaders, Pir Ahmed Jilani and Sebghatullah Mujaddedi. They represent a good segment of the Pashtun population of central and southern Afghanistan. The Americans know them very well and dealt with them in the 80s.
The Northern forces will become the legitimate Afghan government army if an agreement is reached with the Americans about the political future of Afghanistan with President Rabbani. An important step in this direction was taken in Rome last week.
This process should include a special arrangement for the former king and the settlement of conflicts with Pakistan. This is an excellent choice for the Americans because the Northern forces will be able to achieve numerous and rapid victories with the proper support and equipment. The Pakistani government will have to be prevailed upon to refrain from aiding the Taleban. And most probably outright payments will be made to local leaders, tribal heads and warlords to buy their quick support. In fact, the Pakistani Military Intelligence ISI has a list of major players including names, addresses and — most importantly — prices.
The first military objective will be expanding Northern control around Baghram Air Base. Masood was able to keep the base from the Taleban who overran it more than once. Bagram Base is suitable for American planes as it is in the heart of the battlefield, but of course, it needs considerable repair.
The next place in military importance is Mazar-e-Sharif where the Uzbek leader, Abdul Rasheed Dostam, a major player in the region, has already expressed his readiness to cooperate with the Americans. The expected easy capture of Mazar-e-Sharif is necessary not only because it would represent an initial moral defeat to the Taleban but also because it would pave the road to Herat and central Afghanistan.
There the allied forces would meet with the Shia Hazara people who were once massacred mercilessly by the Taleban for sectarian reasons. The Hazaras will happily and willingly join the allies provided they get a green light from Iran, their principal supporter. The US would consider the Iranian directive to the Hazaras as a contribution from the Iranians to the American effort. This could open up a new page in the relations between old foes.
The next stage would be Heraat in the west where Ismael Khan is waiting to play his role. He was its hero during the jihad against the Soviets and is an ally of Jammiat-e-Islami, which is headed by Rabbani. Ismael Khan was among those ousted by the Taleban. He is said to be living in Tehran.
The fall of Herat is important because it opens the road to the Taleban capital, Kandahar. This would be crucial for the advancing forces in order to avoid the geographical traps that were nightmares for the Soviets in central Afghanistan. The area from Herat to Kandahar consists of plains and open desert which can be easily traversed if air cover is provided.
With the fall of Kandahar, the Taleban would collapse and scatter. The advance to Kabul would then be easy. No doubt there would be some resistance here and there but by declaring a new government in Kabul, many Afghans would soon become convinced that the time for peace had arrived.
I presume that the Americans would not bother about the fate of Mulla Muhammad Omar — whether he is killed, surrenders or returns to his village as an ordinary citizen. They certainly would not go after him or arrest him; there would be little sense in creating another “martyr.” It is known that his only problem is the word of honor that he gave his guest, Osama Bin Laden. This is part of Afghan hospitality and tradition that cannot be understood by those belonging to the new world order.
Once the Taleban are ousted, many men will shave the beards they were forced to grow. Girls will return to whatever is left of their schools. Classic Pashtun songs will be heard in the bazaars of Kandahar and the smuggling of electrical appliances, cassette recorders and other items of entertainment prohibited by the Taleban, will resume within days. A new coalition government might be formed in Kabul under the patronage of the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Conference.
While the “liberation” of Afghanistan is in progress, there will be another mission, led by special forces from a command post equipped with the latest communication systems, intelligence and surveillance apparatus. This unit will have to maintain close contact with the battlefield but its real purpose will be the capture of Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda’s secret and hidden bases.
I imagine that there is an American commander who will lay out a map and draw a big circle that stretches from the Kuner region in the far east of Afghanistan, to Kandahar in the west. Also, from south of Kabul across Bagman, Logar and Bektia in the south where Bin Laden and his followers will be waiting somewhere in this difficult terrain.
The US will try to find spies who will betray Bin Laden. This will be difficult. It is known that those closest to him cannot be bought. So the Americans will also be watching closely for some targeted individuals to make the fatal mistake of contacting Bin Laden. Then the special forces will move with lightning speed and it will almost be an anti-climax.
Bin Laden has been in this position before. In 1987 he faced Soviet special forces who were trying to overrun a border post which was manned by his Arab mujahedeen. He was able to force them back. In that offensive, the Soviets did not want him personally; they were trying to simply secure a location.
This time the objective is the man himself. So with the cooperation of his old enemies and some of his former friends, the Americans will take him “dead or alive.”
I believe Bin Laden is aware that he has become a symbolic figure for many who feel antipathy toward the United States. He will not accept wearing orange pajamas and being confined to a US prison. He will choose “martyrdom” instead. That is his ultimate goal and it is not a fate that he fears.
Bin Laden will be killed and the Americans will declare that they have won the war.
In the end everyone will accept his fate happily, satisfied with whatever has come.
