KARACHI, 26 October — With the rest of the world, Pakistan is fully engrossed in the war in Afghanistan. It has to bear, as the front-line state, the additional burden of Afghan refugees on its western frontier and has to contend with the deepening polarization within the country that has activated religious militants against a government that is cooperating with America against terrorism. Amid this, there is the growing emotional involvement with the old rivalry against India on the flaming issue of Kashmir. After exchange of artillery fire across the Line of Control in the disputed region of Kashmir, there have been major troop movements. This has been accompanied by rising tempo of jingoism on both sides.
Responding to very aggressive statements from Indian leaders, President Gen. Pervez Musharraf also talked tough in his nationally televised interview on Monday. Though its purpose, seemingly, was to put to rest doubts and ambiguities that are rooted in the government’s support to the US military action, the headlines it reaped were all related to India. The expression which resounded the most was: "India to be paid back in same coin." He said that the armed forces of Pakistan were fully prepared "to teach a lesson" to India if tried to launch an adventure against Pakistan. Using an idiom that was obviously meant to appeal to the man in the street, he said: "We are not wearing bangles."
Observers disagreed about the potential of at least a limited armed conflict in Kashmir at a time when the international coalition is busy in its war against terrorism. Incidentally, both Pakistan and India have committed their support to this coalition and Pakistan is directly involved in the crucial campaign. Just as Pakistan and India have a habit of resorting to bellicosity now and then, it is usual for the US and other Western countries to remind the two countries of the need to reduce tensions and resolve the Kashmir dispute through dialogue. At this time when the world focus is on terrorism, India evidently finds it worthwhile to forcefully emphasize the charge it levels against Pakistan of promoting ‘cross-border’ terrorism in its part of Kashmir.
On Tuesday, Pakistan contacted India to express its grave concern over large-scale movement of its artillery and troops along the Line of Control. An official spokesman said that Pakistan armed forces had taken necessary precautionary measures in view of the unusual movements by the Indian forces during the last few days. Also on Tuesday, President Musharraf presided over a special session of the National Command Authority and reaffirmed Pakistan’s determination to defend its sovereignty and thwart any aggression.
Editorials in Wednesday’s newspapers were totally dominated by the Pakistan-India issue. Dawn’s was titled: "Spasms of bellicosity". It found it unfortunate "that India should choose to create a war psychosis in the subcontinent at this time when the US-led world coalition has its hands full in Afghanistan and try to draw Pakistan’s attention away from the exigencies of the on-going crisis." The News, under the heading "Indian jingoism", applauded President Musharraf‚s remarks as "a timely warning in the light of the dangerous tone of India’s rhetoric which needed to be told that it will be taught a lesson if it tried to do anything against Pakistan."
There are observers who feel that India is aiming to exploit not only the international focus on the issue of terrorism but also the division that is taking shape in Pakistan. With persistent civilian casualties in America’s attacks against Afghanistan, anger against war is rising. Religious parties have staged violent protests and the crisis can mount with reports that Pakistani militants were fighting with the Taleban and had suffered casualties. Even though President Musharraf has repeatedly said that those extremists who oppose his government’s policies were a small minority, feelings for the sufferings of the Afghan people are widespread.
Irrespective of how India aims to gain by raising the temperature in South Asia, a number of commentators feel that its confrontational attitude is playing in President Musharraf’s favor because it helps to excite nationalistic fervor and create a sense of danger that may unite the country against a traditional adversary. It can also help detract people’s attention from more divisive and unpleasant realities that are located in Pakistan’s difficult and changing relations with America as well as the Taleban.
As winter and the holy month of Ramadan approach, there is a sense of urgency about the need for the American operations in Afghanistan to end. This would call for a quick attainment of America’s basic goals, mainly the defeat of the Taleban to allow another government to take charge.
Pakistan naturally wants the present operation to end soon and hopes that its targets will be limited. Also, it has a stake in the post-Taleban administration. In that sense, events are rushing toward some kind of a climax. As for tensions between Pakistan and India, the end of the story is nowhere in sight.
