KARACHI, 18 January — Even though India has not responded very enthusiastically to the bold initiatives of President Pervez Musharraf in banning several extremist groups in his address to the nation last Saturday, the threat of war between the two countries has surely receded.

The present visit of US Secretary of State Colin Powell to the region is another indication of the pressure that is being built on India and Pakistan to ease tensions and find a political way out of their flaming differences, particularly on the disputed territory of Kashmir. A lot of work, analysts agree, is being done behind the scenes to find a way out of the South Asian imbroglio. And in this process, Pakistan’s position has now earned a larger understanding and appreciation.

Without any doubt, Musharraf’s speech represented a new beginning in the context of taking action against extremist groups, including the two India had blamed for involvement in the Dec. 13 attack on its Parliament and for violent activities in Kashmir.

Before the speech, there had been frequent suggestions from Western leaders that Pakistan should do more to suppress the extremists, as India had constantly insisted. But no such demand has been made after the speech. On the other hand, measures announced by Musharraf have been widely applauded. India has denied that it was under any international pressure to resume peace talks with Pakistan. However, its war rhetoric is gradually losing its bite.

Armies of both the countries are still massed on their mutual borders and incidents of firing across the Line of Control in Kashmir are still reported. India has ignored Pakistan’s call for pulling the troops back to their peacetime locations. The standoff, in that sense, has continued. Still, the fact that Powell was upbeat about the chances of de-escalation in South Asia after his meeting with Musharraf on Wednesday in Islamabad is reassuring and many observers in Pakistan were now expecting the focus to slightly shift to the international situation in the country.

Indeed, as the US secretary of state has said, Musharraf’s initiatives promise to transform his country into a modern state, though this could take some time. Irrespective of the fact that action against extremists was dictated by events that have shaped beyond its frontiers, the influence that it will have on the national scene will, in the long run, be more important. The urgency of defusing tensions with India and easing the dangerous border situation is relevant only in the immediate context.

In many ways, the speech made by Musharraf marks a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s national policies. He did not only ban the extremist groups, his stringent criticism of how religion had been used in the country’s politics would be difficult to even imagine, on the part of the head of government, in the pre-Sept. 11 period. It is instructive to recall that the elements that are now prescribed as destructive were planted in Pakistan’s polity by another army ruler, Gen. Zia-ul Haq, in response largely to the developing situation in, yes, Afghanistan — and under the patronage of the US. The social cost that Pakistan has since paid for that policy is a measure of the change that is now in the offing.

For a long time, conventional wisdom in the country held that any decisive move against religious extremists would prompt a strong and bloody backlash. No such indications were available in the immediate aftermath of the fateful speech. So far, there have been no angry protests or show of force on the part of the militants. One reason for this may, obviously, be the debacle suffered by the Taleban.

Also crucial would be the loss of support to these outfits from the establishment itself. At the same time, it is hard to imagine that the large and resourceful constituency built by the religious parties can so easily be erased. Hence, there is this great sense of anticipation about how the internal confrontation between the government and the militant religious organizations will finally play out.

Against this backdrop, some commentators are expecting Musharraf to take fresh measures to win support from the liberal elements in the country and provide more space for political activities of that kind that can strengthen the liberal opposition to religious parties.

According to a report published in The News on Wednesday, Musharraf was planning to deliver another address to the nation at the end of this month to announce elections ahead of the Oct. 12, 2002, deadline set by the Supreme Court.

The need for providing more space for political activities is very evident. Some analysts have noted that Musharraf made no mention of his road map to democracy in his speech on Saturday. While it is true that he has the support of the moderates in the country, the only credible way of sustaining this would be to allow the mainstream political parties to articulate and promote public opinion in the cause of an open and plural society.