KARACHI, 1 February — While tensions with India continue to engage the Pakistani mind, it is the evolving relationship with the United States that will surely have the most significant and long-lasting impact on the country’s polity. And it is bound to have serious implications also for Pakistan’s relations with its traditional adversary because the US seems determined to push the South Asian nuclear neighbors to the table of negotiations. But the strength that President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has gained on the diplomatic as well as the domestic front is the essence of the new situation.
This does not, however, mean that President Musharraf is assured of smooth sailing in months ahead, particularly in the Supreme Court-directed revival of a democratic dispensation after elections in October this year. Indeed, the wide-ranging electoral reforms and the declaration of President Musharraf that he will stay in his present post for five years after the elections to ensure the continuation of his present policies have raised questions about the legitimacy of the forthcoming elections. A lot may also depend on how the large political parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party of Benazir Bhutto and the Muslim League faction that supports the other former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, respond to the still unfolding game plan of the present administration.
Another likely variable is the ability of the religious parties and the extremist outfits that have been outlawed to make a strong show of strength when elections draw near and the political temperature begins to rise. The manner in which the religious militants have receded into the background has surprised many observers. Perhaps the humiliating defeat of the Taleban has driven them into a state of passivity and bereavement. One explanation is that the clout that these groups had displayed in the past had depended largely on the covert support of the establishments and the agencies. Yet it is still not possible to write them off and the deep passions that have been aroused for long years cannot evidently be erased without any consequence.
When politics comes into play, the endemic anti-American feelings in the country would have to be taken into account. These feelings are not restricted to the parties and interests that have suffered because of the war in Afghanistan. Many of the same individuals who wholeheartedly support President Musharraf’s present assault against religious extremism are critical of what they see as American designs in the region. There is this feeling that just as Pakistan was playing the American game when Gen. Zia-ul-Haq supported the Mujahedeen-led campaign against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, it is the same relationship now when another military ruler is at the helm, though the lineup in the battlefield is just the opposite.
But, all said and done, the great benefits that Pakistan is able to draw from American assistance and attachment, mainly in tangible terms, must create their own dynamics. The focus, in the first place, is on the economy. Because of what happened in the wake of the previous Afghanistan-related relationship, Americans are anxious to show that their support to Pakistan will survive the ongoing war against terrorism.
There is considerable optimism in Pakistan in the context of the country’s economic prospects in the future and this is a striking reversal of the dismal and depressing situation that existed in the pre-Sept. 11 period.
One evidence of America’s interest in Pakistan is that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) is to soon start its operations in the country with special emphasis on primary education and public health. In keeping with the lessons that Pakistan has learnt, more attention is now being devoted to the social sector and to the development of human resources. When Aid offices closed down in late 1990, there had been no such stress on socio-economic projects.
Against this backdrop, President Musharraf’s visit to Washington in the second week of this month to meet President George Bush is eagerly awaited because it is expected to provide some dramatic stimulus to relations between the two countries. As a pointer, American Ambassador to Pakistan Wendy Chamberlain told a group of newsmen on Tuesday that her country was set to enhance economic and defense relations with Pakistan. She said that the US was considering lifting all defense and economic sanctions. According to one report published on Wednesday, she said that this visit would change the history of relations between the two countries.
Ultimately, of course, everything will depend on how President Musharraf proceeds on his road map‚ to democracy and retains his authority in the post-October scenario. The electoral reforms that have been announced amount to some drastic changes in the constitution. Still, Pakistan’s constitution sanctions a parliamentary system in which the prime minister is the head of the government exercising supreme authority. Hence, President Musharraf confronts not just political but also constitutional hurdles. How well can be transcend these barriers will have a bearing on Pakistan’s own destiny.
