The Somali transitional government and its armed foes have indicated their willingness to attend a peace conference next month in Nairobi. The conference is a result of the 9th Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) Summit held in Khartoum in January.

African leaders urged all Somali parties to commit themselves to fighting terrorism and establishing a broad-based government. Speaking to reporters in Nairobi, Sudan’s foreign minister and the current chairman of IGAD’s ministerial council, Mustafa Osman Ismail said, “The ultimate objective of coming to Nairobi is the widening and deepening of national reconciliation in Somalia through dialogue, negotiation and compromise.”

Many observers, however, do not expect a genuine breakthrough in Nairobi. They see the gathering as pointless unless fresh ways to deal with conflicting Somali views are found. In fact, opposition groups do not recognize the legitimacy of the Transitional National Government (TNG). They said they would only talk to TNG in its capacity as the Arta Group. (Arta is the resort in neighboring Djibouti where interim President Abdi Kassim Salad Hassan was elected in 2000 by Somali clan leaders and civil society representatives.) At the same time, TNG officials have repeatedly declared that they would sit down with anybody who recognized them as Somalia’s legitimate administration. They will also consider the inclusion of opposition groups in the government.

Many Somalis have expected miracles from the new TNG administration. They eagerly await the government’s first steps toward pacification and reconciliation. There must be talks with the opposition aimed at accepting the central authority; the nearly dead economy must be revived and thousands of militias loyal to clan warlords must be disarmed.

But what has the TNG achieved so far? It has failed to exert its control over the capital city. All government buildings have been occupied by gunmen since the end of the civil war in 1991. About 100 Cabinet members plus 245 legislators are living in heavily guarded hotels due to a lack of security in the city. In addition, some entrepreneurs in Mogadishu have taken advantage of the nonfunctioning banking networks. These individuals have imported counterfeit Somali shillings during the last few months. The government officials say they have bought imported counterfeit notes valued at US$3 million. They insist that their moves were aimed at keeping counterfeit notes out of circulation. The end result was that the Somali Shilling fell from 8,000 to the dollar to 24,000. “Donations of millions of dollars by friends of Somalia have been misappropriated. We demand accountability for that money,” said a recent statement issued by a local Somali Human Rights nongovernmental organization. The NGO claimed that TNG has received $24 million from Arab countries and millions more from other sources.

The TNG is now under great strains because of the clan composition used at the Arta conference as the basis for representation. Practically every Somali is determined on having a top job — namely the presidency or a Cabinet post. This is why the warlords have flourished during 11 years of anarchy. They still control most of Somalia -- territory and resources.

Commentators believe that Somalia’s crisis is far from over. Abdullahi Moalim, a Somali political analyst said, “The international community has allowed the interim president to sit on long-vacant Somali seats in such international and regional forums as the UN, OAU, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and many other bodies. At present, the Somali people do not only want a government to represent them internationally. They need a lasting peace, genuine reconciliation and effective central administration.”