KARACHI, 22 March — At the same time that President Gen. Pervez Musharraf appears secure in his position, with full backing of the military establishment at home and the US-led coalition abroad, Sunday’s grenade attack on a church in Islamabad’s diplomatic enclave has underlined growing threat to his rule. Of the five people killed in that attack, two were Americans and this has profound significance in the context of the targets that have been chosen by the perpetrators of new terrorist assaults in Pakistan. No wonder the American administration is very concerned about the survival of its point man in the war against terrorism.
In many ways, the church bombing in the high-security sector of the generally well guarded capital could be a postscript to the message conveyed with the kidnapping and barbaric killing of US journalist Daniel Pearl. There have been reports, quoting officials of security agencies, that breakaway elements from at least five recently banned extremist groups were gearing up for a violent campaign against the regime of President Musharraf. These elements are opposed to the fundamental policy shift instituted after Sept. 11 and are also resisting the induction of liberal values in Pakistan’s society.
In his testimony before the armed services committee of the US Senate on Tuesday, CIA Director George Tenet spoke about “inherent political risks” for the Musharraf government which arose from “militant and anti-American sentiments that exist within Pakistan”. These remarks illustrate the growing anxiety that is expressed in the US media on the threat posed to President Musharraf.
Indeed, a news analysis in the New York Times, published on Tuesday, went as far as to say that the question now was whether he can survive. “Not just politically, but even physically. When assessing Gen. Musharraf’s predicament, many Pakistanis and foreign diplomats solemnly mention Anwar El-Sadat, the Egyptian leader who was cut down by opponents of his policy of making peace with Israel”. Even if this grim assessment is considered alarmist in nature, there is no doubt that Pakistan is at present passing through a very difficult phase of its existence.
Terrorist violence has surely surged in recent weeks and there has been a series of sectarian killings, particularly of doctors in the city of Karachi. Three persons were killed in terrorist attacks in Lahore on Tuesday, including a member of the Pakistan Islamic Ideological Council. On Wednesday, also in Lahore, attackers threw grenades and opened fire on the car of a local leader of Pakistan People’s Party, wounding him and killing two his bodyguards.
But this is only a part of the problems that are looming on the horizon. The most urgent of these, of course, is the economy and it has a direct relationship with incidents of violent crime and social disorder. It is instructive that headlines in major newspapers on Sunday morning highlighted the report that Japan had asked President Musharraf to improve law and order situation and ensure continuity of economic policies for attracting Japanese investment. President Musharraf had concluded his state visit to Japan last week and the report was based on the press conference of Commerce Minister Razak Dawood, who said that “their biggest concern is the law and order situation”. The grenade attack on the church in Islamabad came just a few hours after Sunday’s newspapers were delivered to their readers.
As for the need for ensuring the continuity of the present government’s policies and reforms, President Musharraf has decided to retain his post for five more years after the promised elections in October this year. However, the constitutional and procedural course of action to legitimize this continuation is bound to create many complications. After all, the Supreme Court judgment that validated the coup of Oct. 12, 1999 prescribed general elections within three years only to restore democracy‚ —- and that naturally means an end to the present arrangement.
An obvious device available to the rulers is national referendum on the question of President Musharraf’s continuation in office. But this will necessitate some mobilization of public opinion and this could lead to unforeseen consequences. Not only would the militants want to exploit this opening, the mainstream political parties of the two former prime ministers are increasingly taking an adversary position because of President Musharraf’s refusal to allow the two leaders to take part in the electoral exercise.
Confusion is also growing on the issue of constitutional reforms that the think tank of the government, the National Reconstruction Bureau, is in the process of devising. All and all, uncertainty about what may happen in the coming weeks and months is growing and the terrorist acts have given a sharp edge to this feeling of apprehension. One measure of the sense of vulnerability of the present government is the rising tempo of criticism in mainly the English language newspapers. More and more, the critics are invoking the example of Gen. Zia-ul-Haq, who had also extended his rule while supporting the US policies in Afghanistan. There is little doubt now that his eleven years in power had an adverse impact on Pakistan’s destiny.
