Yesterday, the former king of Afghanistan, Zahir Shah, finally returned after an exile of 29 years. Officially it was as a private citizen. But it is not every private citizen who returns home in a military jet accompanied by the prime minister, is greeted on arrival by a guard of honor, dignitaries, ministers, warlords and an adoring public, and is then whisked off with a bodyguard of 40 Italian carabinieri to stay at a palace. But then Zahir Shah is no ordinary private citizen. For most Afghans, he symbolizes their hope of a peaceful future and a gentler Afghanistan, the only man who can bridge the divide between the country’s mutually suspicious ethnic groups.
Officially, Zahir Shah’s role is no more than to open the Loya Jirga, the national assembly of elders, which will meet in June to appoint a replacement to Hamid Karzai’s interim administration and draw up the first steps of a constitutional settlement. However, given the enthusiasm for him as a symbol of national unity, it is quite likely that the Jirga will appoint him head of state once more, although possibly without actually saying what his position would be. Such a development would be entirely understandable. He has acted impeccably both during the recent international deliberations on the future of the country and prior to that, in the years of Afghan misery, constantly insisting that his only desire was to bring peace to the country and the Afghans themselves should decide their future political system. His lack of personal ambition is appealing and contrasts markedly with that of too many other Afghan leaders.
There are those, especially among the warlords and in the Northern Alliance, who fear the former monarch’s return and who will do their utmost to stop him being reappointed head of state. They see him as a threat to their own political ambitions. Some of those who regard his presence as a threat may not be above trying to kill him. There have been warnings — which is why his return was delayed and why he is now surrounded by more bodyguards than attend most heads of state.
The threats have to be taken seriously. Afghanistan remains a violent country. In this case, although Zahir Shah’s opponents know that any attempt to sideline him would result in international aid and military support being slashed, they may well reckon that, were he to be removed permanently from the scene, the international community would have to play ball with them rather than leave Afghanistan to its fate — and to a renascent Taleban.
Those who think that way had best think again. Were anything to happen to this frail old man, the plans to help would be of no consequence. They would be swept aside as the country plunged into fresh civil war.
The problems of Afghanistan are far from resolved. The warlords still have their eyes firmly set on as much power as they can grab. Ethnic rivalries simmer beneath the surface, lawlessness remains rampant and the ousted Taleban and their Al-Qaeda allies retain significant footholds in the country; it may be several years before they are finally eliminated. This picture is far from rosy. But the return of the former king, in whatever guise he finally adopts, provides the one hope, the only hope, that a path can be found out of the conflict and into peace.