KARACHI, 26 April — With the April 30 referendum in Pakistan just round the corner, no great excitement is likely to be generated by the Supreme Court hearing of petitions against an exercise that is designed to extend President Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s stay in office for five more years.

The court proceedings began on Monday and the counsel of one of the five petitioners took three days to present his cases that the assumption of the president’s office by Gen. Musharraf and the holding of the referendum were unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the political tempo in the country has steadily risen and there is a growing sense of division and disquiet on the issue.

Irrespective of the outcome of the Supreme Court proceedings, constitutional and legal issues that have been raised have a direct bearing on the evolution of the democratic system in Pakistan. When the Supreme Court had validated the military takeover of October 1999 and given President Musharraf three years to hold elections for a return to representative civilian rule, a sense of direction for the polity had apparently been set. A road map had also been revealed by the present government, with certain objectives to be achieved during the interim period. But the referendum plan tends to throw that process into doubt and disarray.

In that sense, the climax that the referendum itself will constitute offers no promise of a catharsis. Instead, it is bound to open up a new phase of confrontation and political wrangling. In fact, the stage is set for a fresh surge in popular frenzy because general elections are to be held in October and a major topic of speculation at this time is the choice of a prime minister. That also brings up the matter of how the political forces will be arrayed in the forthcoming encounter. Developments during the past few days suggest that the alliance against President Musharraf, composed of the mainstream political parties such as the Pakistan People’s Party of Benazir Bhutto, is gaining confidence. An All Parties Conference is being held today in Lahore and a public meeting is scheduled tomorrow. Observers have noted that President Musharraf’s administratively massive, rent-a-crowd campaign has evoked strong opposition also from the civil society — the intelligentsia, independent print media, and the professional organizations. Human rights activists are more vocal and argue that the presidential referendum would severely undermine the prospects of democracy in the country. Another flip side of the referendum from President Musharraf’s point of view is that it has exposed him to a growing measure of adverse world opinion, in defiance of the great admiration that he had earned after his support to the US war on terrorism.

Though some of his public rallies have been canceled, the grand shows that have been arranged in different cities in the referendum campaign have projected President Musharraf in a political role of, say, the Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto mold. Many of his sincere supporters worry that this new image could erode his credibility and make him very controversial. Since he is now following in the footsteps of former rulers, particularly in the context of making rosy promises, the threat of the familiar backlash in the form of popular discontent is very real. There has never been any doubt about the wide support that President Musharraf enjoys — and there is this ready reference to the “silent majority”. The irony, however, is that the mass mobilization drive does not appear to get him any additional following.

Ultimately, the actual result of the referendum is not likely to be decisive in terms of establishing the legitimacy of Musharraf’s rule. It will remain suspect even if a fairly good turnout is demonstrated. To that extent, the proceedings in the Supreme Court will be an abiding point of reference. Opinion is divided on whether the petitions before the court will become ineffectual after the referendum is held but the constitutional questions that are being raised will have to be resolved and explained in some manner. On his part, President Musharraf has repeatedly stressed that he would respect Supreme Court’s verdict. It will be interesting to see if there are any surprises in this regard.

In any case, some dramatic incidents in the arena of politics seem imminent after the referendum. Initially, the focus will be on constitutional amendments that are now in the works. President Musharraf obviously aims to have a better control over the future political system and the government is expected to launch some strategies to ensure that parties and individuals opposed to President Musharraf do not gain control in the elected assemblies. Even though he has decided to continue to wear his army uniform, President Musharraf wants to create an environment of “genuine democracy”. Critics wonder how this objective can be realized in a situation that will definitely make him more powerful and, consequently, more autocratic in his actions.