Finally the American administration, in the form of president W. Bush, has laid out its vision for the solution for the Palestinian problem. This has come after devastating Israeli incursions in the Palestinian territories and frequent Palestinian suicidal attacks. It also marked an end to a long hesitation by the American administration and a fruition of so much urging by leaders from different corners of the world for the USA to step in and do something about the deterioration in the area.

A look back would tell us that the initial American hesitation of the Bush administration was a result of an almost recommendation from the outgoing Clinton administration and the Israeli government of Barak to punish Arafat and his group for not accepting a sweet offer to end the problem. Sealing a deal would have crowned Clinton with another laurel in his last days in office.

Along with a vision of solution, the punishment for Arafat and his administration continued both on the ground and on the world stage. President W. Bush was 99.9% asking for the removal of Arafat and his administration. That was also obvious from later explanations by his secretary of state. They are calling for a new administration that is more transparent, democratic, and in the same talking loyal, friendly with no animosity to Israel or the USA.

The reaction to the American plan was a slow acceptance. The Israeli reaction was Oh great, Go deal with the Palestinian for now while we are finishing the rest of the job. Some Arab countries accepted the proposal right away arguing that Arafat was not named in the plan (#!*%?!). The G8 bowed to the plan and pressure and asked Arafat just to go and disappear into history books. Arab countries are baffled, and they should. Here is why.

After officially and openly declaring and acting to remove Saddam, the Americans now are after Arafat and asking for democracy. If their plan succeeds, who is next on their list?

USA has done it before. It urged, demanded, and orchestrated changes in other parts of the world. A clear example is Latin America. While the proclaimed cause for reshaping Latin America was democracy, the unadvertised reason was economics.

A quick look at the situation in our area reveals that Arab governments are some of the most stable in the whole world. Peaceful transition from father to son occurred recently in three Arab countries. The rest of the Arab countries are presided by some of the most enduring heads of states. Arafat himself is one of the oldest and continuing leaders. One major reason for this stability comes back to the Americans who after winning the world presidency since World War II, have not tried to change things significantly in the area except for some attempts in the 1950s. But now things are different and they are trying to reshape the situation on the ground in a remarkably new way.

Two major events have configured the new American attitude toward the region. One is the September 11th attack. The second is the serious Palestinian uprising and its threat to Israel.

No longer the USA is satisfied with the status quo in the Arab World. It is asking, demanding and working on changes in the area and the major push behind this is security. The administration mark the area with Islamic movements and extremism which has overflown and expanded to hurt New York and Washington.

A well-discussed way to oust Saddam is through an attack on the system in Iraq. The preferred method in the Palestinian case is to sideline, freeze and then dump out Arafat altogether in an election.

The consequences of these attempts will be profound if the Americans succeed or fail. Would there be an armed resistance? Would a domino effect take place in the Arab world? What about the reaction of the Arab masses? Which side they will choose? Would there be any progress in the Palestinian question? Would this scenario be accelerated if another attack on the US takes place? What will happen to the Islamic groups themselves?

Definitely it will be a real drama to tell.