KARACHI, 12 July — Pakistan’s search for an institutional political structure that can ensure stability has apparently run into the swamp of misgivings about the intentions of the present government of President Gen. Pervez Musharraf. And that has left the country in a state of ferment. In the wake of a package of constitutional reforms and changes in electoral laws, there is growing apprehension that many more things could change before elections are held in October.
A report published on Wednesday, for instance, said that a strong lobby in the government has supported the option of a caretaker set-up to hold the elections. Another report earlier this week suggested that the elections could be postponed for six months. And the induction of five new ministers in the provincial government of Sindh has prompted speculation about similar changes in the federal and other provincial Cabinets.
Against this backdrop, it was no great surprise when on Tuesday an accountability court in Rawalpindi sentenced, in absentia, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to three years rigorous imprisonment in what is known as the ARY gold reference case. This would essentially make no difference to Benazir Bhutto’s credentials as the leader of her Pakistan People’s Party or as a possible candidate in the coming elections. That is taken care of by other, recently enforced laws. In any case, a similar sentence had already been passed by another accountability court.
Through an executive order announced on Saturday, the government said that twice-elected prime ministers and chief ministers stand disqualified for these offices. It would apply even in cases where a prime minister or chief minister may not have completed the full term of office.
In its editorial comment, the daily Dawn said that such laws throw into doubt the general’s commitment to hold a fair and free general election. “In fact,” it added, “there is a widespread feeling that the ground is being prepared for manipulating the general election to ensure a pliant Parliament and prime minister.”
Political analysts have insisted from the outset that the present military regime would not allow the two former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, to participate in the coming elections. That is why some laws are seen as specific to the two leaders.
But analysts have also said that once the elections have been held and power is transferred to elected representatives of whichever party, the two leaders would be able to return to Pakistan and engage in politics. At the same time there are questions about President Musharraf’s political strategy and the timing of events, the role that Pakistan has been assigned in the international campaign against terrorism should come under close scrutiny in the coming days and weeks. President Musharraf’s main strength has rested on the support that the US and its allies have provided to his leadership. Can this support be taken for grated in the developing circumstances?
Some recent reports in influential US media, including the New York Times, have underlined the challenges that are building up for President Musharraf on the domestic front. There is little doubt that after the referendum on April 30, he has increasingly become unpopular and is seen as not totally in control. One problem is the surge of anti-American feelings in the country and any impression that the US policies have an impact on the overall sense of the country’s direction can be detrimental to the government’s credibility. That may be one reason why the arrest of alleged terrorists involved in the bomb blast outside the US Consulate on June 14 has seemingly not raised the stock of the administration. It is also very instructive that the arrested activists of a militant outfit are charged with an aborted bid on the life of President Musharraf.
Obviously, the threat that the militants pose has further complicated the pre-election scenario. The liberal opinion in Pakistan is unhappy with the hesitation that the government has shown in dealing with the militants. In its editorial on Wednesday, the Daily Times of Lahore has noted that President Musharraf “runs the risk of being assassinated by a network of killers the state is unwilling to take on”. There are many explanations, including the patronage of the establishment that many such networks have enjoyed in the past. Some members of the government do not want to provoke any upheaval before the elections, an upheaval that could swing the vote against pro-Musharraf parties.
Faced with this and other dilemmas, President Musharraf is rather left alone. His failure is mainly in the political sphere. His inability to revive hope and confidence in the future is becoming more and more pronounced.
Such incidents as the gang-rape of a woman in Punjab’s rural wilderness, at the behest of a local council, have surely added to the sense of gloom. It does seem very unlikely but some observers do wish that President Musharraf is able to take another U-turn and make peace with the mainstream parties of the former prime ministers. After all, U-turns are always possible in politics.
