MANILA/ALKHOBAR, 2 Oct — President Gloria Arroyo’s national security adviser said yesterday the government expected a "very swift war," possibly lasting only days, if US-led forces attacked Iraq, and that any such conflict was unlikely to erupt in the next two months.
Roilo Golez, briefing reporters after a National Security Council meeting over the Iraq situation, said the Philippines did not expect there would be a massive evacuation of some 1.2 million Filipinos working in the Middle East if a war broke out.
"Considering the technology of the conflict and the array of forces being prepared by the US, we do not expect the war to take long. We expect the war, if at all it would take place, to be a very swift war, meaning only just days," Golez said.
"We are not talking of months or weeks, just days."
Golez added: "We do not expect the actual conflict to start in October and it is unlikely to start in November because of Ramadan. Beyond that, we don’t know."
He stressed that this was not the Philippines’ own assessment of the situation, but that of US officials.
"The assessment...is not the product of our own analysis. It is the product of our own soundings with senior officials of the US Department of State, National Security Council and Department of Defense in the US," he said. Golez said the NSC, a top level policy-making body chaired by President Arroyo, was also assuming that "any attack (on Iraq) will come with the approval of the United Nations Security Council."
He described as "hypothetical at the moment" the question of a unilateral US attack on Iraq and added only that Manila would " extend political, security and humanitarian assistance to the US in the pursuit of its national interest."
The national security council believed there would be no major disruption of oil supplies to the Philippines, Golez said, adding that Manila’s main oil supplier was Saudi Arabia. "We do not expect the conflict will reach significantly countries like Saudi Arabia, where we have about close to a million Filipinos, the United Arab Emirates and other neighboring countries," he said.
OFWs impress Arroyo’s envoy
In Alkhobar, Arroyo’s special envoy Roy Cimatu has said he was elated to see that Filipinos in the Kingdom, particularly those in the Eastern Region near Iraq, were more than prepared for any eventualities.
"I am impressed that you are very well organized and have more experience on the contingency plans.
I am happy to report to the president that you are relaxed here and always wear smiling faces," said the newly retired Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief, whom the president tapped to head her Middle East Crisis Preparedness Team.
Cimatu and his delegation met with community leaders in Alkhobar on Sunday, during which Labor Attaché Jalilo dela Torre and Supervising Welfare Officer Sotero Tornea, who head the POLO-OWWA Eastern Operations, gave a briefing on areas that are considered the most at risk in case of war in Iraq. Dela Torre talked about contingency plans particularly for those in Al-Khafji and Hafr Al-Batin, which are within the Kingdom’s borders with Iraq and Kuwait.
Cimatu’s team includes Ambassador Reynaldo Parungao, and Director Nicon Pameronag of the Labor Department, POEA Director Ramon Tionloc, and Cimatu’s aide Capt. John Earnest Jabloc.
Cimatu said they were looking only at "relocating" those in affected places to to Riyadh or as far as Jeddah, as presented by Ambassador Bahnarim Guinomla, rather than evacuating them to the Philippines.
"Evacuation to Manila spells billions of pesos and we need to balance our actions on the best possible contingency plans, which is to relocate you in a safer place," Cimatu said.
Rolly Tuzara of the OFW Congress wondered what what kind of immediate assistance the Philippine government can extend during the mass relocation of workers considering that the government is too slow to respond to the plight of hundreds of stranded workers in the Kingdom.
Director Tionloc easily responded that the Philippine Embassy has the full authority to spend in times of crisis.
While observing that Filipinos in the Kingdom were relaxed while those at home were getting alarmed, Cimatu said the visit of his team to the Kingdom and other Mideastern countries where there are OFWs is for the purpose of preparing. He said that it is a trait of the Filipinos to be always prepared just like in the Philippines where the citizens are always prepared not only on insurgencies but also on natural calamities and disasters.
