ISLAMABAD — The election campaign which ended on Tuesday was a low key one. Viewed from the urban perspective it is even more low-key than the non-competitive, non-party and non-credible referendum. The voter turnout, on the other hand, will surely be much higher than the very low referendum turnout. At that time, in a no-contest the establishment had already determined the outcome. The incentive even for Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s supporters to vote did not therefore exist. The elections, despite the support for the "King’s Party", remain competitive. Hence the competitive spirit, even if considerably dampened, will be a contributing factor influencing voter turnout.
Of 81 million registered voters, it is difficult to predict how many will actually vote. If the past is any guide, then the trend of lower voter turnout will continue. Between 1985 and 2002 there has been a 2.5 times increase in the number of registered voters yet voter turnout has registered a consistent decrease. In the 1970, the turnout was 60 percent but it was about 43 percent in 1990 and around 35 percent in 1997. This 35 percent turnout is however contested since the then president, Farooq Leghari, initially mentioned a 25 percent voter turnout figure.
Multiple factors influence voter turnout. The clout, control or credibility that a candidate enjoys in his constituency is one of the factors. Feudals such as Shah Mahmud Qureshi and Amin Fahim of PPP would enjoy control while men such as Sheikh Rashid, a former PML(N) deputy, ever present to assist his constituents and others such as Humayun Akhtar (PML-Q) in Lahore and Nayyar Bokhari of PPP in rural Islamabad may have earned credibility through constant contact.
In a country where the state apparatus fails to play the classical role of arbitrator in a society where income gaps and social power crushes the underprivileged, politicians ‘helping out’ the underprivileged help the leader become the ‘people’s candidate’. Interestingly this phenomenon may appear more relevant in understanding the voting pattern in Punjab. In Sindh and Balochistan, feudal control is a major determinant while in the NWFP and to a lesser extent in Balochistan the religious factor, the current situation, the Afghan military operation and the US anti-terrorism drive will doubtless influence voting behavior. The nationalist ideology also influences voting in the three smaller provinces.
There are also more emotive issues such as intense and obvious victimization of popular leaders by the state. This factor however does not appear to be presently operating. While government’s effort to divide and weaken the PPP has not led to any significant decrease in its vote bank, no sympathy factor has been at work to increase it. An election without party leaders will certainly affect the voting pattern. Local constituency issues rather than national ones will influence the voting. Personalities become the dominant figures in constituency campaigns. Hence, in Punjab the divided PML and the absence of the Nawaz brothers may work to the advantage of the PPP. However the ‘King’s Party’ with local influential leaders and state patronage could be a major gainer there. Rural voters, looking to elected representatives as their godfathers in an inept state setting, will not shy away from those whom they believe will "deliver". Issues of democracy, of election rigging, of state patronage are largely irrelevant for the Punjabis. It took a man such as Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, plus an innocent time of idealism, romance and politics to push the voter to a higher level of idealistic being to believe in his promise of "roti, kapra aur makan" (bread, clothing and housing). Provincewise Punjab with 41.36 million voters remains the primary battle ground.
In a rudderless scene with most party heads away and Mian Azhar propped up to head the ‘King’s Party’, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) of the religious parties is likely to gain. The US military operation and US policies in Iraq, Kashmir and Palestine, the tribal operations, the united platform of all the religious parties, the consistent failure of the mainstream parties and the traditional election manipulation by the present government throwing issues of principles to the winds, are all factors that will give political mileage to MMA. However, this is only seen in the two provinces from which they traditionally draw support.
In an environment in which Pakistan’s power managers and politicians have made a hash of democracy, the best that a voter can do is vote while keeping his or her own interest in mind. The voting pattern will spring no surprises. All parties will have representation.
No major blocs. The establishment does not want major blocs. Only a setup which will not upset what has been put together under the rubric of political restructuring. The voter’s intervention will only reach as far as casting the vote. The rest will depend on those elected and those managing Pakistan’s power scene.
<<12 October 2002>>