The participants in Somalia’s peace parley in the Kenyan town of Eldoret signed a cease-fire on Sunday in their attempt to end more than a decade of bloodshed in the country. The representatives from Transitional National Government (TNG) and most of its heavily armed enemies have been holding peace talks for nearly two weeks. During the first phase of the talks, they signed a cease-fire. The signatories committed themselves to setting up a broad based federal government, to combating terrorism and to improving the safety of aid workers in the country.

Many observers, however, do not expect a genuine breakthrough in Eldoret. They see the gathering as a repeat of earlier failed peace talks. Since 1991, the country’s warlords have held thirteen reconciliation conferences and have not reached any fruitful agreement. A Somali poet once said, "You birds ... sing, sing a good song." Many times over the last eleven years, the same song has been sung with no practical outcome.

Many observers at the conference have a distinct feeling that they have seen all this before. And perhaps they are right.

What the participants signed is a repetition of previous peace deals. When the meeting reaches its second phase in which power sharing will be the main agenda, many commentators believe that the warlords will reject a genuine pact. Practically every warlord, of course, is determined to have a presidential or Cabinet post.

Another group that may undermine the peace process is the country’s entrepreneurs who finance and support the warlords. The businessmen have taken advantage of the non-functioning government and have avoided paying taxes or legal dues.

They have no desire to see a new national government, regarding it as a threat to their lucrative existence. Some of them have begun to import counterfeit Somali shilling notes valued at millions of dollars. This has resulted in the fall of the Somali shilling from 8,000 to 24,000 to the dollar.

There are reports that some businessmen have used the country’s southern agricultural areas to plant narcotic drugs. This explains why Somalia is considered a significant producer and trafficker in narcotics.

Moreover, the use of land for a drug cash crop removes the land from food production and the profit from the land goes to enrich a few powerful criminals, rather than produce food for the general population. The owners of the land, who originally produced food crops, have been forced off at gunpoint and are now part of the refugee problem rather than contributors to an agricultural solution.

The present talks will be pointless unless fresh ways to deal with these power-hungry individuals are found.

Some Somali analysts believe that the warlords might be reconciled by international pressure. Outside intervention would aim at disarming the gunmen and reconciling militia chiefs.

At the beginning of the talks the international community pledged more support to Somalia if peace is achieved. African and European countries have indicated that they would introduce smart sanctions and isolate those identified as blocking the process. A particular focus of the international community’s attention would be the drug producers and traders. The sanctions might also include travel restrictions and freezing of certain financial accounts.

This option might be the best way to a lasting peace and it would mean Somalia would at last get a much-needed central government.