KARACHI, 15 November 2002 — There are strong indications that the political deadlock, which has persisted for more than a month since Oct. 10 elections yielded an obtrusively divided mandate, is about to end. This optimism is prompted by President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to convene the inaugural session of the National Assembly on Saturday (tomorrow). And this announcement has come in the wake of highly applauded progress in talks between the so-called King’s Party and the religious alliance. A deal that would clear the way for the formation of the next government is likely in a day or two.

But the very idea of a coalition between the supporters of the present government and those who have seemingly emerged as “ideological” adversaries of the constitutional structure that President Musharraf had painstakingly designed is not easy to contemplate.

Not only is the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), the alliance of six religious parties, bitterly opposed to the pre-election amendments to the constitution, its astonishing electoral gains also reflect robust anti-American and suspected pro-Taleban feelings.

It is, thus, not surprising that rosy expectations about the deal, initially projected by the leaders of the Quaid-e-Azam faction of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML), are interspersed with doubts about the final outcome.

Observers also wonder about its possible implications for Pakistan’s foreign policy, now hinged to America’s international war against terrorism. Incidentally, MMA is set to form the government in the North West Frontier Province that borders Afghanistan and it is in this region that the US seeks to pursue Al-Qaeda and Taleban activists.

A new and disturbing element has just been added to this equation with Al-Jazeera television’s broadcast of an audiotape that purportedly contains the voice of Osama Bin Laden. Al-Jazeera has said that its agent received the tape in Pakistan. Any suggestion that Bin Laden is alive and actively leading his network is bound to influence American policies and action. The state of affairs in Pakistan, particularly in the tribal belt along the frontier with Afghanistan, should also figure in whatever new strategic assessments have to be made.

As for talks between PML-Q and MMA, the focus has rested on constitutional amendments and the position of President Musharraf, who has appointed himself as president for the next five years and continues to be the chief of army staff. It has been reported that the two sides, showing remarkable flexibility, have resolved all issues except the power of the president to sack the National Assembly. MMA’s high command met in Karachi until “sehri” yesterday to decide its future line of action. On Wednesday, sources within the religious alliance sought to dispel the impression that a deal for the formation of the next government was about to be struck.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto has receded somewhat into the background. Death of Asif Zardari’s mother, allowing a parole for Benazir’s incarcerated husband, also served as a momentary distraction. At one point, a deal between PML-Q and PPP, the second largest party in the National Assembly, also seemed imminent.

In spite of the traditional animosity between pro-establishment elements and the PPP, this alliance would at least have posed no ideological challenges and it would have served Pakistan’s foreign policy priorities. Many questions are being raised about the role that the PPP and its individual members would play in the near future as some of its members have strongly argued for a deal with either PML-Q or sharing power in a national government.

Ultimately, of course, the real decisions will have to be made by President Musharraf himself. Some observers are amused by the fact that the King’s Party‚ is involved in negotiations on constitutional amendments when the authority to decide on this issue belongs entirely to the government.

Against this backdrop, President Musharraf’s credibility is very much at stake. He may not want to be reminded that before elections, he had asserted that if the elected National Assembly disapproved of his amendments, either the assembly would have to go or he would himself quit.

President Musharraf did get into the act when he met Qazi Hussain Ahmed, head of Jamaat-e-Islami and an important leader of MMA, on Monday. In fact, this two-hour long meeting was believed to be the basis for initial progress in talks between PML-Q and the religious alliance. There have been rumors about President Musharraf’s meetings with other leaders but this was the only encounter that was officially recognized.

As Pakistan, riding a political roller-coaster, anxiously waits for the outcome of the ongoing talks and the proceedings that would take place in the National Assembly, the ball remains in President Musharrf’s court. It is said that his government purposely wanted a hung Parliament. But the divisions he must now contend with constitute a heavy burden. And the real issue is not just the formation of a government. More important is the direction that Pakistan will take when different forces pull it in different directions.