CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts, 22 June 2003 — Among the bilateral and international issues that will come up for discussion during the June 24 Musharraf-Bush summit, the sale of F-16s will be a key issue for Pakistan. Economic support, thought to be in the range of a few billion dollars, will be welcomed by the Pakistani establishment and those who believe that in the post Sept. 11 period “Islamabad sold its cooperation cheap.” But it is the question of the sale of the F-16s that will be followed most carefully.

After former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was able to extract back soybeans plus cash instead of delivery of the 28 F-16s, Gen. Pervez Musharraf has consistently been asking the Bush administration to sell F-16s to Pakistan.

Pakistan paid for 28 of the aircraft in a deal first negotiated in the late 1980s. Despite having already sold them, the US blocked their release in 1991 when Pakistan could not certify that it had no nuclear program. This was widely referred to as “highway robbery” on the part of the US administration because it neither repaid the cash it received nor delivered the planes.

Whatever the decision on the sale of F-16s, there is no doubt that the issue of the US sale of F-16s to Pakistan has become a symbol of the limits and expectations of the Pakistan-US relationship. Evidently Washington’s position on whether to sell or not to sell the F-16s to Pakistan will also convey the extent of how much “meat” there is in Pakistan-US relations from the US perspective. In Islamabad it is seen as a test case of whether the Pak-US relationship is a strategic one.

The decision to sell F-16s will demonstrate the degree of trust US has in the current Pakistani government as reliable allies. In case the sale is not cleared and Delhi gets the arrows cleared in addition to the Phalcon AWACS, the growing US-Indian strategic ties will be contrasted with the US’ limited tactical and issue-based relations with Pakistan.

Hence the sale of F-16s will only help maintain an effectiveness-based and not quantity-based military balance in the two nuclear-armed antagonistic neighbors. The refusal to sell directly or through third party the F-16s would therefore be demonstrative of United States consideration of Indian concerns. The Indian government has always effectively opposed any major military sales to Pakistan.

Differences have always existed between the US State Department and the Defense Department on the extent to which strategic cooperation with Pakistan possible. The current Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is known to bulldoze his own way through, overriding concerns of the State Department.

However, there is no indication that Rumsfeld will push for the controversial sale during Musharraf’s forthcoming visit.

Pakistan’s concerns regarding the militarization of the region continue to increase. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported a peak in arms sales. According to the SIPRI report, India’s arms imports increased 72 percent in 2002, making it the second largest buyer of arms from abroad.