JEDDAH, 19 October 2003 — Saudi Arabia is China’s largest single foreign source of crude oil, and an independent report presented to a high-ranking US security adviser believes that this will result in stronger political, military, and economic ties between the Kingdom and China.

The joint Saudi-US report on Sino-Saudi energy rapprochement and its impact on US national security claims that despite China’s efforts to increase its domestic production and diversify its oil supplies it will have to increase its dependence on Saudi Arabia’s oil.

A major reason for this is the Kingdom’s enormous influence over petroleum prices.

The report goes on to say that increased energy trade between Saudi Arabia and China will lead to growing political, military and economic ties between the two countries. This will lead to China having a direct interest in peace in the Middle East, the stability of the Gulf region, and the security of the world’s sea-lanes for safe transportation.

The report also entertains the possible scenario of the US importing no oil from the Middle East. “Its economy would remain vulnerable to oil supply disruption. Even if the US imported no oil from the Middle East, it would have an interest in making sure that other countries of concern to the US were not subject to political pressure from any Middle East producer,” it says.

The US’ main interest in the energy markets is to make sure that there are mechanisms in place for burden-sharing, and a minimal amount of “free-riding” on US policies by other oil importing countries.

The report was presented last year to Dr. Andrew Marshall, the adviser to the secretary of defense for net assessment, a well-known Pentagon strategic visionary, known as “Yoda” by insiders because of his track record of foreseeing wars 10 years down the line.

US Technology magazine Wired highlighted Dr. Marshall’s background in a rare interview earlier this year. “Named director of the Office of Net Assessment by Richard Nixon and reappointed by every president since, the DOD’s most elusive official has become one of its most influential. Today, Marshall — along with his star proteges Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz — is drafting President Bush’s plan to upgrade the military.”

The joint report’s Project Director Nawaf Obaid explained Dr. Marshall’s motivations for commissioning the independent project. “He realized that it could be a leading concern in US defense doctrine if Saudi Arabia became a major issue in Sino-US relations in the future,” Obaid told Arab News. “He also acknowledges that China is the only country in the world that could be the next superpower.”

According The Taipei Times, China’s imports from the region reached 34.39 million tons last year, 1.6 percent more than in the year before. The largest Gulf oil exporter, Saudi Arabia was China’s largest oil supplier last year, shipping 11.39 million tons.

Saudi Arabia has a quarter of the world’s proven oil reserves, and is the world’s largest producer of oil. China is set to become one of the world’s largest energy importers by the year 2010.