NEW DELHI, 1 December 2003 — Improving relations with Pakistan may have boosted Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s image, but his Hindu nationalist party is nevertheless expected to lose elections in most of the four states going to polls today.

Opinion polls and analysts have projected that Vajpayee’s Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, will lose in at least three of the four states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi — where the outcome of today’s elections is seen as a pointer to next year’s national election.

The BJP, which heads a 20-party coalition government, may rule the country from the national capital, New Delhi, but local voters there seem to prefer the opposition Congress party, led by Italian-born Sonia Gandhi.

The Congress party has been in office in New Delhi for five years, and looks set for another term.

In western Rajasthan state and Chhattisgarh in central India, the Congress party is also predicted to retain power. But in central Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress party has ruled for a decade, anti-incumbency sentiment is expected to help the BJP wrest power.

Vajpayee’s personal popularity is on the rise, due in part to his success in running a stable coalition government, but also because of his diplomatic prowess, which has earned India a more prominent role in international affairs.

His efforts to resolve New Delhi’s decades-old dispute with Pakistan over the Kashmir region have been lauded by most Indians, including some in the opposition parties.

After decades of Cold War estrangement with the United States and the bitterness of sanctions after India conducted nuclear tests in 1998, Vajpayee has forged closer ties with Washington.

He has also achieved cordial trade and political relations with China — 40 years after the two fought a war.

Still, his party continues to suffer electoral setbacks.

The BJP and its allies have won only four of 15 major Indian state elections held since Vajpayee became prime minister in 1998.

The party’s promise to curb corruption has rung hollow following a string of bribery charges against ministers.