WASHINGTON, 22 January 2004 — Is there a more visceral, exhilarating, cruel, humbling and downright enthralling business than politics? The Iowa caucuses, the traditional starting point for an American presidential campaign, on Monday provided a compendium of human emotions. Not only did they throw wide open the battle for the Democratic nomination, which had appeared a coronation march for Vermont’s former Gov. Howard Dean. Triumph, disaster, tragedy and resurrection were all there as well, rolled into one extraordinary evening.
The triumph, however ephemeral, belonged to John Kerry and John Edwards, the two mainstream US senators, whose campaigns barely a month ago seemed on life support. The lesson, it would seem, is that much-derided political professionals from Washington should never be written off. The disaster, or at least the most brutal of wake-up calls, has been inflicted upon Dean, who instead of finishing first or a very close second, came a distant third.
Rarely has there been a more humbling experience for the media and other purveyors of conventional wisdom. In Iowa, it was said, Dean had the endorsements, the money and the organization deemed essential for success — as well as a hard-edged anti-war stance that appealed to Iowan Democrats, held to be especially strongly opposed to the invasion of Iraq. In the event, none of this mattered. Iowans huddled in their church basements, school halls and front rooms, and turned the conventional wisdom on its head.
And then, if not tragedy, the sad spectacle of a dream ended, a moment for private sorrow — but which politics cruelly demands must be publicly enacted by those who fail, in the full glare of the TV cameras and watched by millions. That was the lot of Dick Gephardt, once the favorite in Iowa, who saw a 30-year career as a pillar of his party vaporized in half an hour.
Iowa, it cannot be stressed enough, is only the beginning. The contest now moves to New Hampshire, for a last week of retail politics, reminiscent of a British by-election, before the primary next Tuesday. Then the contest turns national. Maybe Howard Dean will make a comeback in New Hampshire, where he needs a strong performance if his effort is not to unravel. He still has far more money than his rivals, and a broader organization, both in that state and nationally. He is moreover back in the underdog’s role where he once thrived. More likely however, the Massachusetts Sen. Kerry will next week build on his victory in Iowa, and reclaim his natural New Engand territory.
And what of John Edwards, who is starting to look like the reincarnation of Bill Clinton he was advertised to be when he entered the race 18 months ago? A performance in New Hampshire to match his second place in Iowa will leave him well placed when the election caravan rolls toward his native south in early February. As with Kerry, favorable headlines will win him a second look from voters. And, it must be said, a piercing second look from the media.
Equally important, Dean may have now served his purpose. His rivals have watched him electrify the Democratic base with his pummeling of the president, his argument that the party must be true to itself, his insistence that Bush cannot be beaten by “Bush-lite”. Now they are taking pages from the Dean script. To their Washington-bred expertise with the issues, Messrs Kerry and Edwards have added passion — while avoiding the overheated language, the brittleness and ill-temper that may be the undoing of Dean.
One way and another, this is bad news for the White House. Try as they might, Bush’s handlers could never conceal their belief that Dean would be the easiest Democrat to beat — for the reasons listed above. But Iowans have now voted with their heads, not their hearts, picking not the most outspoken anti-war candidate, but the ones they deem to have the best chance of beating Bush.
So there you have it: Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Clark — any one of them could win the nomination. And do not forget Sen. Joe Lieberman, Al Gore’s running mate in 2000, who may yet prosper when the primary season shifts to more conservative parts of the country. Rarely does a party boast five candidates any one of whom you could easily imagine in the Oval Office.
This said, Bush remains favorite to be re-elected. The economy is recovering, casualties in Iraq remain at a politically tolerable level, and by election time the US will have handed over sovereignty, however nominally, to Iraqis themselves.
